Area Forecast Discussion
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301
FXUS64 KEPZ 292109
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
309 PM MDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
West to southwest winds will bring seasonably warm and mostly dry
weather to southern New Mexico and west Texas tonight through
Tuesday. On Wednesday a weak cold front and an upper disturbance
will move across the region and this will be followed by low
level easterly winds. This weather pattern will result in
isolated showers and thunderstorms across the Borderland Wednesday
through next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Somewhat complex weather scenario will exist across southern New
Mexico and west Texas for most of the week. A weak upper low in
the southern branch of split flow will drift very slowly eastward
across southern California into central Arizona tonight through
Tuesday. This will induce and sustain a deep west to southwest
flow across most of the cwa during this time with seasonably warm
mostly dry weather occurring. The exception may be the far
eastern areas including Hudspeth and eastern Otero counties. In
this area the winds will have a slightly more southerly component
with winds occasionally becoming southeasterly. Consequently
moisture will be a little more abundant here with surface
dewpoints mostly lower 30s to lower 40s and precipitable water
around .5 to .75 inch. The higher moisture will cause air mass to
become weakly unstable with mucapes near 500 J/kg in the afternoon
and early evening. These factors will result in a slight chance of
thunder mainly eastern portions of both Otero and Hudspeth
counties through Tuesday.

On Wednesday a weak cold front will move northeast to southwest
across the cwa with the easterly flow behind the boundary
advecting modest amounts of moisture into much of the
area...especially for areas east of the Rio Grande. In addition
upper low over Arizona weakens into an open wave which in turn
moves across New Mexico and west Texas Wednesday afternoon and
Wednesday night. Air mass across most of the region thus becomes
more moist and unstable with precipitable water around .5 to .75
inch and mucapes around 500 to 1000 j/kg west to east. This will
support an increase in storm coverage Wednesday and Thursday.

Friday through Sunday a high amplitude upper ridge will remain
almost stationary through the great basin/Arizona region with a
northerly flow aloft persisting across New Mexico and west Texas.
Concurrently at low levels winds will remain mainly from the east
and southeast with surface dewpoints mostly from the mid 30s to
mid 40s from west to east. Warm temperatures and modest amounts of
moisture at low levels will be partially offset by warm air aloft
associated with ridge. Thus air mass expected to be marginally
unstable at most later periods. Weak waves may enter the cwa from
the north but despite this expect storm coverage will remain
generally isolated and mainly over the high mountains Friday
through Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...30/00Z-31/00Z.
Minor disturbances aloft will set off some isolated shower and
thunderstorm activity for mainly Otero and Hudspeth counties at
times thru fcst pd with SCT-BKN050CB BKN100 WNDS VRB 30G45KTS.
Otherwise mainly east of the rio Grande SCT070 SCT100-120 SCT200.
winds gnly 22012g22kts.

$$

.FIRE WEATHER...
Most areas will remain fairly dry through Tuesday with lowland min
RH values from 5-10% and 10-15% above 7500 feet. The exception will
be Otero and Hudspeth counties Sunday aftn into Tuesday which may see
some isolated shower and thunderstorm activity. Dry Lighting is a
possibility. An upper level low will move from the west to just
south of the Bootheel of NMex turning upper and surface winds more
southeasterly which in turn will import some moisture into the area.
This will brig us a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Activity
will start east of the Rio Grande and work westward through Saturday
in some locations.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 64  92  64  89 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           61  90  60  87 /  10  10  10   0
Las Cruces              58  91  55  87 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              58  90  57  88 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              41  67  37  65 /  10  10  10   0
Truth or Consequences   56  89  56  86 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             50  82  46  80 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  52  90  53  88 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               54  90  50  87 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      62  92  64  88 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               57  92  55  89 /  10  10  10   0
Fort Hancock            63  93  61  90 /  10  10  10   0
Loma Linda              59  86  56  83 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  61  91  60  90 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            59  91  59  88 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          62  89  58  87 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           50  90  48  87 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   56  92  54  89 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                57  91  57  87 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               60  90  58  88 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 46  78  45  76 /  10  20  10   0
Mescalero               42  78  42  75 /  10  10  10   0
Timberon                42  75  40  72 /  10  10  10   0
Winston                 42  82  41  79 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               54  87  50  84 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               49  89  49  86 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            39  84  37  83 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                  48  84  48  82 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   41  87  41  86 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              38  85  38  84 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 50  86  47  83 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  55  90  51  86 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 50  91  52  87 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          54  89  52  84 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              50  83  47  79 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

05 Rogash/20 Novlan



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