Area Forecast Discussion
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539
FXUS64 KEPZ 221111
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
511 AM MDT Sun Oct 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Despite sunny skies, temperatures will fluctuate through the week
ahead. Expect near-normal temperatures today with middle and upper
70s across most of the lowlands. Temperatures will climb back up
into the 80s for Monday, but a backdoor cold front will cool us
back down into the 70s for Tuesday and Wednesday. This front will
also bring the usual gusty east winds, especially along west-
facing mountain slopes. On Thursday, temperatures will climb up
above average again before another shot of cool air cools us back
below normal for Friday and into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The transition to a ridge west/trough east pattern is underway,
with northwest flow aloft now in place over the Desert Southwest.
This pattern will invite the occasional intrusion of cooler air
into the area, starting with this morning. A weak cold front has
drifted into the area from the north, with light northerly flow in
place across the region. Light and variable winds in sheltered
locations have cooled down, particularly in the Gila, where Lake
Roberts has dropped into the 20s. The dry low level airmass
(dewpoints in the teens to single digits) is also helping enhance
radiational cooling where winds aren`t too strong.

Expect temperatures right around normal today, with a high around
77 at El Paso, and the mountains in the 60s (Cloudcroft 61).
Temperatures will warm back up to around 6-8 degrees above normal
tomorrow (Monday), with light and variable winds. A "moderate"
backdoor cold front will push through the area late Monday Night.
The usual downslope easterly winds will impact the west slopes of
the Franklins, Huecos, and (to a lesser extent) Organs, with gusts
in the 45-50 mph range. Temperatures for Tuesday will be held back
in the lower 70s, about 3-5 degrees below normal for a change.

Temperatures will recover back to near-normal again on Wednesday,
then back to the low/mid-80s for Thursday. Sort of a "kiddie
roller-coaster" of temperature swings.

A sharp shortwave trough embedded in NW flow aloft looks poised to
affect the area Thursday Night or Friday, bringing a stronger
backdoor cold front in its wake. The precip threat looks minimal,
but I kept the slight chance PoPs in there fore now given the
uncertainties inherent in the longer range. Assuming frontal
passage, expect gusty downslope winds along west-facing slopes
again Thursday night or Friday morning. Behind this stronger
front, temperatures late week and into the weekend may be held
back well below normal (upper- 60s for the lowlands).

&&

.AVIATION...
Light northerly flow will become light and variable towards the
afternoon, with clear skies prevailing through the day.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
The most notable fire weather note for today will be light and
variable winds favoring poor ventilation rates across the region.
These will slowly improve tomorrow and Tuesday over the lowlands,
but the higher elevations in the Sacramento Mountains and Gila
Region will be held back in the Poor to Fair range.

Min RH values will be in the lower teens for all but the higher
terrain both Sunday and Monday.

A stronger cold front will arrive from the east Monday night with
stronger east winds. This will also result in cooler temps and a
small increase in Min RH values with readings generally above 20
percent across the region. However precipitation will still be
absent. There is a slight chance for wetting precip by Friday with
the arrival of a stronger disturbance and yet another front passing
by.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 77  48  84  53 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           74  45  82  48 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              74  43  83  50 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              72  43  81  46 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              61  38  64  30 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences   74  45  82  48 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             73  44  82  44 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  76  41  84  48 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               76  44  85  49 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      74  50  82  54 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               75  43  85  45 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            79  46  85  52 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              73  46  79  48 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  79  43  85  49 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            76  46  83  52 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          72  46  82  51 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           72  41  81  44 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   75  44  84  48 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                76  42  84  50 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               74  46  80  49 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 64  40  72  37 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero               68  40  74  38 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                64  38  70  35 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                 71  32  78  34 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               74  41  82  45 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               74  41  82  45 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            76  30  82  32 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                  73  38  82  41 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   79  34  87  35 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              76  31  84  31 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 74  43  84  44 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  78  44  85  48 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 77  42  85  48 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          79  43  85  46 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              77  43  83  48 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

25-Hardiman



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