Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 301048
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
449 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO
TODAY AND THEN SLOWLY DRIFT NORTH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. PLENTY
OF MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE TODAY FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...
MOST FREQUENT OVER THE MOUNTAINS. LATE TONIGHT A COOL FRONT PUSHES
IN FROM THE EAST AND WILL ADD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE BORDERLAND.
WITH THESE INGREDIENTS OF HIGH MOISTURE...AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS...AND
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALL IN THE AREA...AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE LIKELY
THURSDAY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. AND WITH THE HEAVY RAIN WILL
COME A STRONG POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL
STILL SEE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BUT MOISTURE WILL DECREASE A BIT
AND THE AIRMASS WILL LOSE SOME INSTABILITY. BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
BOTH THE UPPER FLOW AND LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE WEST TO SOUTHWEST AND
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE. STILL A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BUT SHOULD THEY
SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED. TEMPERATURES AFTER TODAY WILL FALL TO BELOW
NORMAL AND IN AREAS WITH AFTERNOON RAIN...HIGHS WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
STILL LOOKS LIKE THE OVERALL PATTERN IS SETTING UP FOR A WET END TO
THE WEEK AND LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER
WEST TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO WILL SLOWLY DRIFT OVER SE ARIZONA AND
SW NEW MEXICO BY THURSDAY. OLD TROUGH RUNNING ACROSS THE TOP OF THE
HIGH IS NOW EXTENDING FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE SW TO THE NEW MEXICO
BOOTHEEL AND OVER THE SONORAN DESERT...LYING WITHIN A DEFORMATION
ZONE WITHIN THE UPPER HIGH. MORNING PW`S RANGE FROM 1.1" NW TO 1.3"
SE. TODAY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET COMPARED TO THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MODELS SHOWING BEST CAPE VALUES OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND THE BOOTHEEL
SO SCATTERED MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS AND ISOLATED LOWLAND STORMS LOOK
GOOD. BACK DOOR COOL FRONT STILL MOVING IN BUT MODELS NOW A BIT
LATER WITH IT...NOW JUST ENTERING THE EASTERN CWA LATE TONIGHT. THIS
WOULD NORMALLY BE AFTER BEST CONVECTION TIME BUT CAPE VALUES AND
LI`S STILL REMAINING HIGH WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT SO OTERO AND
HUDSPETH COUNTIES COULD SEE AN INCREASE IN ACTIVITY LATE TONIGHT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THIS PERIOD LOOKS TO BE THE BEST WINDOW
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL. BOTH GFS AND NAM SHOW
COOL FRONT OUT TO THE ARIZONA BORDER BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ADDED
SURFACE MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT AND AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS
ON THURSDAY MAY WELL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. DOESN`T
LOOK LIKE MUCH HELP FROM DISTURBANCES ABOVE BUT THE LOWER AND MID
ATMOSPHERES WILL REALLY BE MOIST AND UNSTABLE. MUCAPES RANGE FROM
800-1500 J/KG AND AS HIGH AS 2200 J/KG OVER THE MOUNTAINS. PW`S
RANGE FROM 1.2" TO 1.4". AND THE WHEREVER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENDS
UP WILL PROVIDE SURFACE CONVERGENCE. THESE INGREDIENTS NOT
APPRECIABLY CHANGED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HENCE GOOD POTENTIAL
FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL EXIST. MODELS EVEN SHOW A DISTURBANCE
DROPPING SOUTH OVER THE CWA FRIDAY...SO FRIDAY MAY BE THE PEAK OF
THE THREE DAYS. FLASH FLOOD WATCHES MAY BE NEEDED FOR THESE DAYS AND
WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT DECIDE ON THIS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...SHOULD SEE A SLIGHT REDUCTION IN THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE...THOUGH SOME HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING STILL
POSSIBLE. OF MAIN CONCERN IS THE FACT THAT JUST MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAINFALL THAT FALL ON SATURATED GROUND COULD STILL CAUSE MAJOR
PROBLEMS. LATEST MODEL RUNS NOT DIMINISHING THE ACTIVITY AS MUCH AS
PREVIOUS RUNS. THOSE RUNS SHOWED THE UPPER HIGH OVER NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO WITH A DRYING EAST FLOW OVER THE CWA PUSHING MUCH OF THE
MOISTURE OUT TO THE WEST. THE LATEST RUNS FROM GFS/ECMWF SHOW THE
HIGH FORMING A RIDGE FROM SOUTHERN COLORADO DOWN TO NORTHERN MEXICO
AND NOT ALLOWING THAT DRIER CONTINENTAL EAST FLOW TO ERODE THE
MOISTURE. THAT BEING SAID I DID BEGIN TO REDUCE POPS SOME WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWER PW`S AND LESS INSTABILITY AS SOME WARMING ALOFT TAKES
PLACE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...UPPER RIDGE REFORMS CENTER OVER MEXICO AND
WITH ATTENDANT INCREASING WEST FLOW ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE...MORE
SIGNIFICANT DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE. POPS BACK INTO THE ISOLATED
CATEGORY AND FLOODING POTENTIAL BECOMES VERY LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 30/12Z - 31/12Z...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
EXPECT P6SM FEW-SCT080-100 SCT-BKN250. HOWEVER AREAS OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF 1-2 SM TSRA WITH CIGS
BKN040-060. WIND G50KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR STORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY HELPING TO
LIMIT THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE UNDER THE RIDGE TO ALLOW FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS MAINLY OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH A SLOW DRIFT
SOUTHEASTWARD OVER ADJACENT AREAS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. BY
THURSDAY THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL HAVE DRIFTED JUST WEST OF THE
REGION ALLOWING FOR A NEW PUSH OF MOIST AIR FROM THE EAST AS A WEAK
BACK DOOR FRONT ARRIVES. THIS WILL HELP TO INCREASE STORM COVERAGE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH EVEN GREATER CHANCES FOR WETTING
RAINS FRIDAY AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. STORMS SHOULD BE RATHER
SLOW MOVERS THROUGH THE PERIOD LEADING TO GREATER CHANCES FOR FLASH
FLOODING IN THE DAYS AHEAD.

MIN RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY RUN 20 TO 30 PERCENT FOR THE LOWLANDS
TODAY AND AROUND 40 TO 45 PERCENT FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH
READINGS CLIMBING ABOUT 10 PERCENT ALL AREAS FOR THURSDAY AND EVEN
SLIGHTLY HIGHER OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH TEMPERATURES LOWER IN
RESPONSE TO INCREASED RAIN AND CLOUD COVERAGE. MEANWHILE VENT RATES
WILL BE GOOD TO VERY GOOD TODAY THANKS IN PART TO HIGHER MIXING
HEIGHTS. LOOK FOR VENT RATES TO DROP INTO THE POOR RANGE AS THE
WEEKEND NEARS WITH MIXING HEIGHTS LOWERING ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 96  78  93  71  89 /  20  20  40  50  30
SIERRA BLANCA           93  73  86  71  85 /  10  20  40  40  30
LAS CRUCES              94  72  92  68  88 /  20  20  40  50  30
ALAMOGORDO              93  71  89  69  89 /  20  40  60  50  30
CLOUDCROFT              70  49  67  47  63 /  30  50  80  70  70
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   94  71  89  67  87 /  20  20  40  50  40
SILVER CITY             89  63  86  61  81 /  20  30  60  50  50
DEMING                  94  72  93  68  87 /  20  20  30  40  30
LORDSBURG               95  69  93  66  87 /  20  20  30  30  40
WEST EL PASO METRO      96  77  93  72  90 /  20  20  40  50  30
DELL CITY               97  69  89  67  88 /  20  40  40  40  30
FORT HANCOCK            98  73  91  70  90 /  10  20  40  40  30
LOMA LINDA              93  65  90  63  82 /  20  30  40  50  30
FABENS                  97  75  93  71  90 /  20  20  40  50  30
SANTA TERESA            95  74  92  70  89 /  20  20  40  50  30
WHITE SANDS HQ          95  74  91  70  87 /  20  20  40  50  30
JORNADA RANGE           94  68  90  66  87 /  20  20  40  50  30
HATCH                   94  70  91  67  87 /  20  20  40  50  40
COLUMBUS                95  72  93  68  88 /  20  20  30  50  30
OROGRANDE               96  72  91  68  88 /  20  40  50  50  30
MAYHILL                 81  58  75  53  73 /  40  50  80  70  70
MESCALERO               81  55  73  54  74 /  30  50  80  60  70
TIMBERON                78  54  75  50  73 /  30  50  70  70  60
WINSTON                 87  64  84  58  81 /  30  30  70  50  70
HILLSBORO               91  67  90  64  81 /  20  20  30  50  40
SPACEPORT               94  67  88  67  88 /  20  20  40  50  40
LAKE ROBERTS            87  57  87  52  80 /  30  30  70  50  60
HURLEY                  91  64  89  61  83 /  20  20  50  40  50
CLIFF                   93  61  89  59  83 /  20  20  50  50  50
MULE CREEK              90  58  89  55  83 /  20  20  40  40  50
FAYWOOD                 91  65  90  61  83 /  20  20  40  50  40
ANIMAS                  94  73  92  69  90 /  20  10  30  30  40
HACHITA                 94  70  91  66  90 /  20  20  30  30  40
ANTELOPE WELLS          94  72  89  69  89 /  20  10  30  30  30
CLOVERDALE              91  65  89  59  81 /  20  10  30  40  40

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

HEFNER/LANEY








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