Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 181055
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
354 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER ARIZONA WILL SPREAD MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO
THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
AROUND 6500 FEET...WHERE THREE TO FIVE ADDITIONAL INCHES OF SNOW
COULD FALL. THE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BY EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING...ALLOWING OUR SHOWERS TO END AND THE SKIES TO BEGIN
CLEARING. TEMPERATURES TODAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL. DRY WEST AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY AND
WILL LAST TO CHRISTMAS DAY. THIS MEANS VERY FEW CLOUDS AND
TEMPERATURES BACK WELL ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE LAST OF THE MULTI-DAY WINTER STORM WILL TAKE PLACE TODAY AND
TONIGHT BEFORE A GOOD STRETCH OF QUIET WEATHER MOVES IN. THE LAST IN
A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS IS ABOUT TO MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS OUR
AREA. THE PREDECESSOR TO THIS SHORT WAVE SWEPT ACROSS NEW MEXICO
WEDNESDAY AND SPREAD LIGHT LOWLAND SHOWERS ALONG WITH LIGHT MOUNTAIN
SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW LEVELS REMAINED AROUND 6500-7000 FEET YESTERDAY
AND ABOUT 1-2 INCHES FELL ABOVE THIS LEVEL IN BOTH THE GILA/BLACK
RANGE AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. THAT SHORT WAVE IS NOW OUT OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AS WE AWAIT THE FINAL SHORT WAVE. WV IMAGERY PLACES
IT JUST WEST OF THE NORTHERN BAJA. MODELS SHOW THE SHORTWAVE AT THE
ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO STATE LINE NOON TIME...TO AROUND EL PASO LATE
AFTERNOON...AND EAST OF THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. BOTH
NAM/GFS SHOW FAIRLY WIDESPREAD QPF...THOUGH BOTH MODELS SHOW HIGHEST
QPF RUNNING WEST-EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL CWA. SEVERAL OF THE HI RES
MEMBERS SHOW QPF ORIENTED IN SW-NE BANDS AND I THINK THIS MAKES SENSE
AS AIRMASS IS SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE...WHETHER WE GET CONVENTIONAL
CONVECTION OR SOME CSI...AS MODELS SHOW SOME POTENTIAL FOR THIS.
SNOW LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 6500-7000 FT TODAY. WILL LET THE
SNOW ADV FOR THE GILA RUN IT`S COURSE...WHERE THEY COULD SEE 3-5
ADDITIONAL INCHES THROUGH TONIGHT. THOUGHT ABOUT ADV FOR THE SACS
BUT WITH THE PVA CENTER LOCATED FURTHER SOUTH...DON`T THINK ADV
LEVEL SNOWS WILL BE MET. OF COURSE IF CONVECTIVE BANDING REACHES
THIS AREA THEN ALL BETS ARE OFF. WITH MOST OF THE MODELS SHOWING .10
TO .30 INCHES QPF...WILL INSTALL 2-4 INCHES FOR THE SACS. SHORT WAVE
EXIT SHOULD ALLOW FRIDAY TO RAPIDLY CLEAR AS PRECIP ENDS EARLY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES TODAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD REALLY QUIETS DOWN AS A STRONG NORTH
PACIFIC JET FORMS ZONAL FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN U.S. FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. A RATHER DRY UPPER TROUGH DOES MOVE ACROSS THE CWA
SATURDAY. JUST LOOKS LIKE HEALTHY BATCH OF HIGH MOISTURE SO WENT
PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE GRIDS WITH PLENTY OF CIRRUS LIKELY. OTHERWISE
EASTERN PACIFIC HIGH GRADUALLY AMPLIFIES NORTHWARD INTO THE ZONAL
FLOW AND BY SUNDAY BUILDS DRY NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA. THIS
WILL BEGIN TO WARM TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT WEEK BACK WELL ABOVE NORMAL
MONDAY THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY. LOOKS LIKE SOME WEATHER MAY ARRIVE
JUST AFTER CHRISTMAS THOUGH. GULF OF ALASKA TROUGH DROPS DOWN TOWARD
THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...LIKELY BRINGING WINDY CONDITIONS TO
OUR AREA CHRISTMAS AND COOLER WEATHER WITH PERHAPS A CHANCE OF RAIN
BY NEXT FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 18/12Z-19/12Z...
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES TO BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH P6SM
SCT-BKN050-070 27012KT. AFTER 19/18Z CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER
WITH BKN035-050 OVC100 IN PLACE AT MOST TAF SITES BY 19/00Z.
MEANWHILE BRIEF EXCURSIONS INTO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF THE GILA AND SACRAMENTOS 18/00Z TO
18/06Z WITH PASSING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS RESULTING IN 3SM BKN030.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WILL INITIALLY PRODUCE MOSTLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES...
INCLUDING THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE GILA AND SACRAMENTOS. ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION WILL THEN OVERSPREAD THE REST OF THE REGION LATE
THURSDAY AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SNOW LEVELS WILL GENERALLY
RUN BETWEEN 6000 AND 6500 FEET BUT COULD LOWER BRIEFLY WITH HEAVIER
SHOWERS. SEVERAL INCHES OF MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL EVENTUALLY OCCUR WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT PRECIP AMOUNTS ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. DRY CONDITIONS
WILL TAKE OVER FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE WILL BE
ANOTHER QUICK HITTING DISTURBANCE OVER THE WEEKEND BUT MOISTURE WILL
BE LACKING SO NO ADDITIONAL WETTING PRECIP IS EXPECTED.

WITH THE TROUGH IN PLACE MIN RH VALUES WILL AVERAGE BETWEEN 40 AND
50 PERCENT OVER THE LOWLANDS AND AROUND 60 PERCENT IN THE MOUNTAINS
FOR THURSDAY. VALUES WILL THEN DROP BACK TO BETWEEN 30 AND 40
PERCENT FOR MOST ELEVATIONS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MEANWHILE VENT
RATES WILL BE DROPPING AGAIN INTO THE POOR TO SOMETIMES FAIR
CATEGORIES AS TRANSPORT WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 56  37  55  30  57 /  20  30   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           56  36  54  30  57 /  10  30   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              54  35  54  27  56 /  20  30   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              55  32  53  26  54 /  20  30   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              34  23  35  18  36 /  20  50   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   50  32  51  27  52 /  30  30   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             43  32  45  27  48 /  40  40   0   0   0
DEMING                  53  32  53  25  55 /  30  30   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               50  32  52  25  54 /  50  30   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      55  36  54  33  55 /  20  30   0   0   0
DELL CITY               55  32  55  26  58 /  10  30   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            61  37  56  29  59 /  10  30   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              53  37  51  31  50 /  20  30   0   0   0
FABENS                  58  34  55  28  58 /  20  30   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            55  36  54  26  56 /  20  30   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          54  36  54  30  55 /  20  30   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           54  35  53  21  54 /  20  30   0   0   0
HATCH                   54  34  54  25  55 /  30  30   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                53  34  54  28  55 /  30  30   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               55  33  53  27  54 /  20  30   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 44  29  44  24  46 /  20  50   0   0   0
MESCALERO               44  25  43  20  44 /  20  50   0   0   0
TIMBERON                43  27  43  23  44 /  20  50   0   0   0
WINSTON                 41  26  43  23  47 /  40  50   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               46  33  48  27  50 /  40  40   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               52  31  52  23  54 /  20  30   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            43  26  44  23  48 /  50  40   0   0   0
HURLEY                  45  31  47  25  50 /  40  40   0   0   0
CLIFF                   46  34  51  21  54 /  40  20   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              45  33  47  18  50 /  50  30   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 45  33  47  28  49 /  40  40   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  53  31  54  25  57 /  50  30   0   0   0
HACHITA                 53  32  54  22  56 /  50  30   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          53  31  55  23  57 /  60  30   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              50  32  51  26  56 /  50  30   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR NMZ402.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17 HEFNER







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