Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 101016
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
316 AM MST Sat Dec 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Deep westerly flow will bring a period of dry and warming weather
conditions to the Borderland for the weekend and through most of
next week. Each afternoon should be a bit warmer than the
previous afternoon and by mid-week afternoon highs will be much
above normal and near records. Skies will deliver more sunshine,
but periods of high clouds will mix in through the upcoming days.
Next Friday we see the possibility of unsettled weather returning
as a cold front and a Pacific storm system move in to bring
chances for precipitation back to the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
To our west a flattening ridge aloft sits over the eastern Pacific
ocean off the Baja. The upper-level pattern across the U.S. is
dampening with a mostly zonal flow pattern setting up across the
Southwest U.S. This pattern will hold through the next 5-6 days
and keep our weather generally fair and benign. Surface winds will
turn back SW/W today, and remain there through most of next week,
as high pressure eases away and lee surface troughing holds over
the plains states. The westerly flow aloft will allow for periods
of high clouds through the period, as the SW/W flow near the
surface helps to warm the region. Low and mid levels look to
remain generally dry through next Thursday, keeping precipitation
chances for the region next to nil.

We once discussed of a moderately strong back-door cold front to
pushing in for Wed night/Thur but that no longer looks to be a
feature of interest for our region. With upper-level high pressure
over the region and west there will be no support for a westward
push of this feature as it slips S and E through the Plains
States. Thus the cold air pool will remain well east, with the
results being continued warm, and near record temperatures for our
area.

At the very end of this package we look at potential for another
cold front to push in from the plains late Friday as moisture and
a disturbance move in from the west. Current model solutions show
some generally light precipitation focused over the area mountains
Friday evening and possibly over the lowlands into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 10/12Z-11/12Z...
VFR conds thru period with FEW-SCT250 clouds. No VSBY
restrictions. Wind becoming southwest all areas in the 3-8 kt
range.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
The cold airmass that pushed in Thursday is now being rapidly
modified as winds turn back from the southwest across the region
and warm temperatures about 10 degrees today. This will will take
us back to slightly above normal. Similarly, relative humidities
will lower into the 20s through the weekend and for most of next
week. A deep westerly flow pattern will keep the jet stream and
storm track to our north through late next week. This means no
significant moisture and no precipitation for the next 6 days or
so. There will be periods of high-level moisture move across the
region in the form of high clouds...however the lower levels will
stay dry. Wind speeds are expected to remain light to moderate in
the 5 to 15 mph with some afternoon gusts each afternoon to 20
mph. Looks out to the end of next week we see some cooler air and
a Pacific storm move into the region. We could see some mountain
snow and lowland rain Friday and Saturday of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 62  42  69  45 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           61  40  68  41 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              61  38  67  39 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              59  39  66  38 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              48  31  52  29 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences   61  39  66  39 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             57  36  62  36 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  63  37  69  38 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               60  36  67  36 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      62  43  68  45 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               62  36  68  37 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            66  41  71  42 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              56  40  64  43 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  63  39  70  41 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            62  39  68  42 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          60  42  67  43 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           61  30  67  34 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   62  35  67  38 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                64  39  70  40 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               60  39  67  40 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 55  37  61  34 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero               54  35  58  32 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                52  33  57  32 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                 58  32  62  31 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               62  36  66  37 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               60  31  66  37 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            58  28  62  27 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                  59  35  64  35 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   60  26  66  29 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              58  23  65  27 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 61  37  66  37 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  65  35  71  36 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 64  35  70  36 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          65  37  70  38 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              61  38  67  39 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

14/Bird



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