Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KEPZ 281021
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
321 AM MST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MILD AND DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS AN UPPER
RIDGE TRANSITIONS TO INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...AFTERNOONS
WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT BREEZY ON THE WEEKEND WITH INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDINESS. THEN A BACK DOOR FRONT WILL BRING EAST WINDS AND LOWER
TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY. BY LATE NEXT WEEK
AN APPROACHING PACIFIC TROUGH WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO THE GILA REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE NEAR TERM PICTURE HAS NOT CHANGED. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
AREA TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ON
THE WEEKEND. SOUTHWEST BREEZES WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT DURING
AFTERNOON HOURS BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

A STRONG SURFACE HIGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL PUSH A BACK DOOR FRONT INTO THE AREA
MONDAY. HOWEVER...SINCE THE MOMENTUM OF THIS HIGH MORE EASTWARD
THAN SOUTHWARD...AND WESTERLY FLOW WILL PUT UP RESISTANCE...THE
COOLING WILL BE ONLY FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS AND ONLY LOWER OUR
TEMPERATURES DOWN TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

FOR DAYS THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRYING TO BRING A
PACIFIC TROUGH INLAND TO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AROUND THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN SEEMS TO WEAKEN THE TROUGH THIS FAR
EAST AND DELAY THE EFFECTS. AT THIS POINT WE WILL MENTION A FEW
SHOWERS IN THE GILA REGION STARTING WEDNESDAY. SOONER OR LATER ONE
OF THOSE PACIFIC SYSTEMS SHOULD BE SUCCESSFUL IN BREAKING THROUGH
AND GIVING THE BORDERLAND IN GENERAL SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 28/12Z - 29/12Z... P6SM SKC-FEW250 THRU PD. WINDS
GENERALLY LIGHT S TO SE UNDER 10KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO REGION WILL FLATTEN OUT WITH ZONAL FLOW
SETTING UP OVER COMING DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP WARM TEMPERATURES GOING
WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. SATURDAY MAY SEE SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS
OVER FAVORED WINDY LOCATIONS. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE
FALLING INTO THE TEENS STARTING SATURDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
FOR ALL LOWLAND LOCATIONS WITH SOME 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS. MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH
PASSES OVER THE ROCKIES...BUT LITTLE TO NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED WITH
ITS PASSAGE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 71  40  74  42  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           67  35  70  39  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              70  35  72  37  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              71  37  72  39  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              59  36  53  36  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   70  36  71  36  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             67  37  64  36  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  70  33  72  34  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               70  33  72  34  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      70  41  73  42  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               68  33  72  38  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            71  34  74  39  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              68  35  67  41  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  70  35  74  38  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            70  35  72  38  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          68  38  71  41  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           68  30  70  33  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   70  33  72  35  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                68  36  71  37  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               69  37  72  39  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 66  36  63  38  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               66  34  61  35  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                63  32  59  36  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 65  32  63  33  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               67  37  68  38  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               70  30  69  33  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            65  35  64  33  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  68  33  66  35  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   70  36  70  32  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              70  30  69  28  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 66  35  66  37  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  71  33  74  35  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 70  31  73  34  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          70  37  73  35  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              71  35  71  36  69 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

01 FAUSETT




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