Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 100517
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1117 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

DRY AND QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS PERIOD WITH DAILY
TEMPERATURES UNDERGOING A ROLLER COASTER EFFECT...AS THE NORTHWEST
UPPER LEVEL FLOW REGIME PERSISTS AND PUSHES A COUPLE FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES ACROSS KANSAS. WE SHOULD SEE A VERY NICE WARM-UP FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE
DOWNSLOPE AND COMPRESSIONAL WARMING WILL BE MAXIMIZED AHEAD OF A
SOUTHWARD MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY BRINGING COOLER AIR BACK INTO THE
HEARTLAND...HOWEVER ANOTHER WARM-UP IS EXPECTED FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH
OF A SECOND FRONT RACING SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW REGIME WILL
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD...WITH A CONTINUATION OF UP AND DOWN
TEMPERATURES AS A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES RACE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. MEANWHILE...GFS/ECMWF MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH
A UPPER LEVEL WAVE RACING SOUTHEAST ACROSS KANSAS ON SUNDAY THROUGH
THIS NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME. THE QUALITY OF MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE RATHER POOR...MAINLY DUE TO THE NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN KEEPING THE BETTER QUALITY MOISTURE PUSHED WELL SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO.
THEREFORE ANY MOISTURE RETURN WOULD BE MORE SHALLOW YIELDING EITHER
DRIZZLE OR LIGHT PRECIPITATION FOR SUNDAY ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST
KANSAS. OTHERWISE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING SIGNALS OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING EASTWARD FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WOULD
ALLOW MUCH WARMER ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO SPREAD ACROSS KANSAS
FOR MONDAY/TUESDAY.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT
KHUT/KICT/KCNU THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED BRIEFLY THIS MORNING ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS BEFORE VEERING SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THIS TAF PERIOD. EXPECT BREEZY WINDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...HOWEVER HAVE LEFT MENTIONS OF GUSTS OUT AT THIS
TIME BECAUSE DEEP MIXING DOES NOT LOOK FAVORABLE BASED ON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND 925-850MB FLOW LOOKS TO BE ON THE WEAKER SIDE OF THE
SPECTRUM. EXPECT CEILINGS TO REMAIN VFR THIS MORNING AND SKIES TO
CLEAR THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

JMR

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 219 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW FOR SEVERAL DAYS DUE TO
LIGHTER WIND SPEEDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    25  65  28  47 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      25  64  27  46 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          24  62  27  45 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        24  62  27  46 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   26  65  29  49 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         24  60  26  44 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      25  64  28  47 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          23  58  26  42 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       24  62  27  45 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     23  60  26  47 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         22  57  24  44 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            21  56  23  43 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    22  59  25  46 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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