Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 042354
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
654 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IS PROGGED TO
TRANSLATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD
OF THIS TROUGH THIS EVENING WHILE LOW LVL MOISTURE/TRANSPORT 310-
315K ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE BRING HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. PWATS
AROUND 150+ PERCENT OF NORMAL COMBINED WITH MUCAPES IN THE 1000-2000
J/KG RANGE AND CONSIDERABLE WARM CLOUD DEPTHS EXCEEDING 4300M SHOULD
RESULT IN EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCTION AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW SEVERE STORMS.

THE EFFECTIVE FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO SINK WELL SOUTH
OF THE AREA ON WED AFTERNOON...HOWEVER MAINTAINED SOME POPS ACROSS
MAINLY SE KS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS ALTHOUGH HIGHER
PROBABILITIES WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TRENDED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES DOWN ON WED WITH A SEASONABLY COOL POST-
FRONTAL REGIME ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE AREA.

THU-FRI...RISING HEIGHTS/INCREASING THICKNESS SHOULD RESULT IN
RISING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA ON THU-FRI. MAINTAINED LOW POPS
THU NIGHT AS A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS CLIPPING A PORTION OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.
SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MIGRATING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WITHIN THE MOIST TROPICAL PLUME COULD RESULT IN
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS FRI NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA AND MAINTAINED LOW
POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

A PERSISTENT MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CONUS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WHILE BUILDING WESTWARD
OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS/SOUTHERN ROCKIES LATE IN THE PERIOD...DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY INCREASE DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ALTHOUGH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES APPEAR LIKELY THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 653 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

A RATHER INTERESTING AVIATION FORECAST OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WED...AS
WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA IN SW KS LEADS
TO CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS.  EXPECT MOST AREAS TO REMAIN DRY FOR
THE FIRST FEW HOURS...BUT THINK TSRA CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...INITIALLY OVER CENTRAL KS. WHERE A FEW
STORMS IN NW KS MAY PROPAGATE SE INTO CENTRAL KS AFTER 02Z.

CHANCES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS LOOK TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT
TOWARDS 05-06Z AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND WARM ADVECTION INCREASES
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS...AHEAD OF THE MAIN SURFACE LOW. THIS WILL
LEAD TO CONVECTION BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS FROM KRSL SE TO KICT EARLY
WED MORNING.  SO WILL GO WITH VCTS FOR MOST TAF LOCATIONS
FOR EARLY WED.

WILL SEE A GRADUAL PUSH TO THE EAST OF THE STORM ACTIVITY ON WED
MORNING...WHICH WILL KEEP VCTS/SHRA OVER THE KCNU TAF FOR MOST OF
THE WED...WITH SHRA ENDING WEST TO EAST.  AFTER THE STORMS MOVE OUT
IN CENTRAL KS...COULD SEE SOME MVFR CIGS FOR THE KRSL/KSLN FOR EARLY
WED MORNING.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    69  90  74  94 /  70  20  10  10
HUTCHINSON      67  89  71  95 /  80  20  10  10
NEWTON          66  88  71  93 /  80  30  10  10
ELDORADO        67  89  74  93 /  70  40  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   70  92  73  94 /  70  20  10  10
RUSSELL         66  86  68  95 /  80  20  10  10
GREAT BEND      67  87  71  96 /  60  20  10  10
SALINA          67  85  72  94 /  90  30  10  10
MCPHERSON       68  87  71  94 /  90  30  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     69  89  73  93 /  70  60  20  10
CHANUTE         69  87  72  91 /  70  60  20  10
IOLA            68  86  72  90 /  70  60  30  10
PARSONS-KPPF    71  87  75  92 /  70  60  20  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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