Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 300805
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
305 AM CDT Tue May 30 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 259 AM CDT Tue May 30 2017

Isentropic lift across srn OK and SW KS has led to an area of
showers and some embedded thunderstorms continuing to fester over SW
KS. As the early morning progresses think this isentropic lift will
shift further east northeast into South Central KS for the morning
hours. Steering winds and this lift will lead to the area of
showers over SW KS drifting due east across most of south Central
KS for the morning hours. Not alot of elevated instability so
probably mainly showers with a stray spark of thunder. Will go
with some solid chance morning pops for this area of showers.
Latest HI-Rez short term model solutions seem to support this area
of showers making slow progress east across southern KS for most
of the morning hours.

NW flow pattern will lead to another weak frontal boundary dropping
south into Central KS during the afternoon hours. Instability will
actually increase some this afternoon (albeit weak) across Central
KS. Given the weak instability and some convergence with the
afternoon heating, expect to see some isolated
showers/thunderstorms develop across Central and northeast KS for
the late afternoon hours along this weak boundary. Could see this
isolated shower/storm chance linger across the Flint Hills and SE
KS until sunset, as the front washes out. Given bulk shear of
30-40kts a few strong storms may be possible.

Mid level warm advection looks to increase again tonight, with 305k
isentropic lift again increasing across the western sections of the
forecast area. Latest model solutions suggest that the advection and
lift will be a little further north-northeast than early this
morning as mid level heights increase. This suggests shower chances
will be over Central KS and shift NE into NE KS as the overnight
progresses.

NW flow slowly shifts east of the area early Wed, with gradually
increasing mid level heights and a return to warmer southerly flow
for Wed through Fri. This return moist flow will lead to increasing
chances of showers and thunderstorms first on Wed, as a warm front
will be located across Central KS for Wed afternoon and Wed evening.

Could see a lull in the showers for most of Thu, as the warm
advection pushes the warm front well northeast of the area. Some
model differences on how the daytime hours Thu will play out, with
the GFS showing a dry spell, while the ECMWF suggests an impulse in
the southerly flow will lead to increasing chances of showers and
thunderstorms for southern KS for Thu afternoon/evening. Consensus
suggests keeping pops in srn KS for now.

Ketcham

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 259 AM CDT Tue May 30 2017

Storm chances look to continue for Fri/Sat as impulses in the
southwest flow continue to rotate NE into the forecast area.
Increasing low level moisture will lead to periodic chances of
showers and thunderstorms, as the lift increases.

Severe chances for the end of the week look fairly low given the
weak shear pattern, but some moderate instability may lead to a few
strong storms.

A cold front looks to drift south into Central KS for early Sat,
with the front lingering across the area for Sat. through Sat night.
This will lead to scattered showers and thunderstorms for most of
the area.

Ketcham

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1150 PM CDT Mon May 29 2017

Light and variable winds tonight will become light and southwest
during the day on Tue. We may see some isolated showers or perhaps
a thunderstorm as activity over Southwest KS propagates eastward
during the predawn hours. KHUT-KICT may see some showers after
09-10Z and some of this activity may impact the KCNU area after
13-14Z. VFR is anticipated through the period although isolated
afternoon storms will be possible again by late afternoon &
evening.

MWM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    82  61  85  65 /  40  30  20  20
Hutchinson      81  58  84  64 /  40  30  30  30
Newton          80  59  82  64 /  40  30  20  30
ElDorado        81  60  83  64 /  40  30  20  20
Winfield-KWLD   82  61  85  65 /  40  20  20  20
Russell         82  55  83  63 /  30  10  30  40
Great Bend      82  57  83  62 /  30  20  30  30
Salina          82  57  84  65 /  40  10  30  50
McPherson       81  57  83  64 /  40  20  30  40
Coffeyville     82  60  84  64 /  40  30  20  10
Chanute         81  60  83  64 /  30  30  20  20
Iola            80  59  82  63 /  30  30  20  20
Parsons-KPPF    81  60  83  64 /  30  30  20  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ketcham
LONG TERM...Ketcham
AVIATION...MWM



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