Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 221151
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
551 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 323 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2018

Today:
As expected most of the good lift ends around 1200 UTC, with
mainly freezing drizzle during the morning. Another ripple in the
flow increases lift this afternoon with precipitation likely
making one more uptick before ending this evening. Thermal
profiles remain challenging, with temperatures aloft continuing to
warm, albeit slowly. Appears area roughly along/west of the
turnpike will remain cold enough for freezing rain/freezing
drizzle well into the afternoon. Will extend advisory through 6 pm
for those areas. While additional accumulations will be light,
given ongoing conditions, the adverse travel threat will persist.

Tonight-Friday:
Precipitation finally ends early this evening but low level
moisture lingers. Expect extensive clouds throughout the night,
with possible exception of extreme western fringe of forecast
area. Surface flow is weak, but there is some potential for fog,
locally dense, where weak south flow develops during the night. At
this point, models suggest flow would be mostly light and
variable. Temperatures should finally warm above freezing areawide
on Friday although there still may be fairly extensive cloud
cover.

Friday night-Saturday:

All models suggest saturated boundary layer with upslope flow.
Anticipate fog (probably dense) and drizzle likely outside of
rain areas. Temperatures will be cold enough in central KS to
support freezing drizzle and freezing rain when precipitation
develops around midnight. Temperatures however will warm and
expect this area to switch light rain by mid morning Saturday.
Rain likely across southeast KS during this period with a couple
storms possible Saturday morning. With the passage of the much
stronger shortwave, precipitation will finally end by Saturday
evening.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 323 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2018

Forecast relatively unchanged from initialization grids. No
precipitation is forecast until Tuesday, but differences between
GFS/ECMWF with location western longwave/closed low are
significant. Data availability issues likely have impacted
initialization grids. It seems probable that precipitation will
hold off until at least Tuesday evening, and temperatures on
Monday and Tuesday could be warmer than currently forecast.
-Howerton

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 550 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2018

Widespread IFR/LIFR cigs will shroud nearly all areas today,
although the stratus may be occasionally scattered at KRSL early
this morning. Areas of -FZDZ will continue to pester most areas as
easterly flow less than 10kts slowly becomes southeast across
Central KS late this morning. Any -FZDZ occurring across SE KS
should transition to -RA around 18Z. Cigs will deteriorate early
this evening with most areas in VLIFR status from ~23/00Z onward.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 323 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2018

Fire weather:

There are no indications of serious fire weather threats through
Saturday, however warmer temperatures and increasing winds on
Monday and Tuesday suggest an increase in fire danger. -Howerton

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    34  31  46  36 /  50  10  10  30
Hutchinson      32  28  44  32 /  40  10  10  30
Newton          33  30  44  33 /  50  10  10  40
ElDorado        35  31  46  37 /  50  10   0  40
Winfield-KWLD   36  31  48  39 /  50  10  10  40
Russell         31  25  42  29 /  30  10   0  50
Great Bend      31  26  43  30 /  30  10  10  40
Salina          33  26  43  31 /  50  10  10  40
McPherson       33  28  43  32 /  50  10  10  40
Coffeyville     43  33  49  41 /  70  40  20  70
Chanute         39  33  48  39 /  60  50  10  70
Iola            38  33  47  38 /  60  50  10  70
Parsons-KPPF    42  33  49  40 /  70  50  20  70

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for KSZ071-072-
093>096-098>100.

Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for KSZ032-
033-047>053-067>070-082-083-091-092.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PJH
LONG TERM...PJH
AVIATION...EPS
FIRE WEATHER...PJH


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