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000
FXUS63 KLSX 221059
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
559 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 138 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE PRECIP CHANCES TODAY.

GIVEN MDL PERFORMANCE OVER THE PAST 24 HRS...HAVE LOWER THAN
NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST FOR TODAY. TO ADD TO THIS LOW
CONFIDENCE...THE LATEST MDL DATA SUGGESTS TSRA SHUD BE MUCH MORE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS SRN MO INTO AR ASSOCIATED WITH THE RATHER STRONG
S/W CURRENTLY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW. THIS S/W STILL
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME PRECIP LATER THIS MORNING IF THE
LLJ CAN RESPOND BEHIND THE LINE OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE SRN US.

ANOTHER S/W CURRENTLY OVER SRN NEB IS PROGD TO ROUND THE BASE OF
THE UPPER LOW LATER TODAY. THIS S/W SHUD HELP INITIATE ISOD TO SCT
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE CDFNT. BELIEVE BEST CHANCES
WILL BE ACROSS SE MO AND SW/S CNTL IL WHERE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL BE STEEPER. ANY PRECIP THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON SHUD
DISSIPATE QUICKLY WITH SUNSET.

AS FOR TEMPS...TRENDED AOB COOLEST MOS ACROSS THE NWRN THIRD OF
THE CWA AND NEAR THE WARMEST MOS ELSEWHERE FOR TODAY. TRENDED A
LITTLE COOLER TONIGHT AS THE CWA WILL BE BEHIND THE CDFNT.
HOWEVER...DID NOT GO TOO MUCH COOLER AS CLOUD COVER SHUD HELP KEPT
TEMPS A LITTLE WARMER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

FOCUS THRU FRIDAY WILL BE TEMPS WITH CWA MAINLY DRY UNTIL THE
WEEKEND.

MDLS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SFC RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA
AND BELOW AVG TEMPS EXPECTED THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
STILL...HAVE TRENDED TWD THE WARMER GUIDANCE AS IT IS STILL LATE
MAY AND BELIEVE MUCH SUN WILL STILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM QUICKLY.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO PRECIP CHANCES BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND. MDLS
REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SFC RIDGE MOVING EWD WITH AN
UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA ON SAT. BEGINNING NEXT
WEEK...MDLS DIFFER REGARDING PLACEMENT OF FEATURES...BUT AGREE IN
THE OVERALL IDEA. A SFC FNT SHUD BECOME STATIONARY SOMEWHERE
ACROSS THE MIDWEST. TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO WHERE THIS
FNT WILL SET UP...SO HAVE KEPT POPS FAIRLY LOW FOR NOW EXCEPT
WHERE MDLS ARE IN AGREEMENT FOR PRECIP IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT.

HAVE TEMPS MODERATING NEXT WEEK AND SLOWLY TRENDING WARMER THRU
THE WEEK.

TILLY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 554 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT.
COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS EASTERN MISSOURI AND INTO ILLINOIS. OTHERWISE...SOUTHWEST
WIND TO BECOME WEST WITH PASSAGE OF THE FRONT.

MVFR CEILINGS WILL BUILD SOUTH LATE TONIGHT WITH WIND SHIFTING TO
THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY MORNING.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...

VFR TODAY. COLD FRONT PASSES TERMINAL AROUND 18Z WITH POSSIBLY A
SHOWER. OTHERWISE...WIND TO SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO WEST THIS
AFTERNOON. MVFR CIEILNG TO BUILD SOUTH INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY
WITH WIND TURNING TO THE NORTHWEST.

CVKING

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX