Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 281057
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
557 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected at all area terminals today.
However, KCNM and KHOB could be affected by TSRA this morning,
with all sites possibly having thunderstorms this afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 352 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016/

Water vapor imagery shows a rather vigorous upper low spinning over
AZ this morning with SW flow bringing abundant moisture across
our region. This low will move slowly east over the next couple of
days before weakening into an elongated trough over the Rockies. A
surface trough resides over SE NM and should become a focus for
showers and storms later today. Other boundaries left over from
evening and overnight convection are also spread across the area.
Atmospheric conditions look more favorable for convection today
than Saturday as ascent spreads over the area and a jet streak
provides upper level diffluence. Storms could last well into the
night as a modest low level jet develops. Training cells may lead
to more heavy rain and localized flash flooding. A Flash Flood
Watch may be needed for parts of the area later today.

As the upper low weakens over NM early this week, mid level ridging
to our east and west will keep a weak trough over our region. With
daytime heating and periodic disturbances moving overhead, showers
and thunderstorms will be possible each day. Confidence is fairly
low by late week as models indicate a ridge building over the
area, but keep a moist environment in place over the region.
Believe models are overdoing QPF a bit and for now will go under
SuperBlend PoPs, but temperatures should climb closer to normal
late this week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     91  69  87  69 /  30  30  40  40
Carlsbad                       86  67  79  66 /  40  60  60  60
Dryden                         91  72  89  72 /  30  30  40  40
Fort Stockton                  88  68  84  67 /  40  40  50  50
Guadalupe Pass                 79  62  72  61 /  50  50  60  60
Hobbs                          83  64  77  64 /  40  60  60  60
Marfa                          79  62  76  62 /  50  50  60  50
Midland Intl Airport           89  68  85  68 /  30  40  50  50
Odessa                         89  69  85  67 /  30  40  50  50
Wink                           89  69  84  68 /  40  50  50  50

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

67/29



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