Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 221017
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
609 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK FLOW CONTINUES TODAY. FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE TONIGHT.
MOISTURE INCREASES WEDNESDAY. COLD FRONT PASSES WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DRIER AIR ARRIVES ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IN FULL CONTROL FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EXPECT TODAY TO BE THE SECOND OF OUR 2 DAY DOG DAY PATTERN.

NO BIG CHANGES. FOG IS LESS THIS MORNING...AS TEMPERATURES IN MANY
SPOTS ARE 1 TO 3 DEGREES MILDER...COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO.  BUT
LIKE MONDAY MORNING...JUST AS MUCH FOG IN OHIO AS WEST VIRGINIA.

THAT WEAK WIND FLOW CONTINUES TODAY...WITH THE WARM STABLE LAYER AT
10 TO 15 THSD FT.  WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A CHANCE POP FOR MOUNTAIN
THERMALS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.  700 MB FLOW BEGINS TO
VEER TO WEAK WEST BY LATE IN THE DAY...SO NOT FIGURING ON CELLS
COMING OFF THE MOUNTAINS WESTWARD.  ALSO...WITH UPPER WINDS STARTING
TO HAVE A WEST TO EAST COMPONENT...SOME HAZE AND SMOKE ALOFT MAY BE
NOTICED AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING FOR THE OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES.

FORECAST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE A DEGREE OR SO HOTTER THAN
MONDAY.

ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT. WITH BOUNDARY LAYER INCREASING IN THE
OHIO VALLEY...SOUTHEAST OHIO MAY BE THE WARMEST OVERNIGHT. STILL
LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE POP THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT HOURS OVER THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS INCLUDING BKW.  WILL NOT PLAY UP ANY THICK FOG
LATE TONIGHT...MAY BE SOME IN THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS...DEPENDING ON LEFTOVER CLOUDS.  NOT FIGURING ON ANY THICK
FOG OVER THE WESTERN LOWLANDS.

DESPITE THE FASTER FRONTAL TIMING...STILL NO POP ABOVE 14 PCT INTO
SE OHIO BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
VARIOUS SHORT-TERM NWP COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO
THE QUICKER HANDLING AND PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH/COLD FRONT
PROGGED TO AFFECT OUR AREA WED/THU.

UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY. ASSOC COLD FRONT WILL BE ENTERING NW OHIO AT 12Z WED AND
SHOULD BE NEARING PERRY COUNTY AROUND 21Z WED. AS SUCH...SPED UP THE
PROGRESSION OF LIKELY POPS INTO THE NORTHWEST ZONES BY THE 19Z-20Z
TIME FRAME. OVERALL ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL WITH
ONLY ABOUT 20KTS SHEAR. HOWEVER...WITH SBCAPE UPWARDS OF 2000J/KG
AND MLCAPE AROUND 1200-1300J/KG PRODUCING EL/S OF 40-42KFT...AND
HALFWAY DECENT MID-LVL LAPSE RATES FOR OUR REGION...IT/S POSSIBLE A
STORM OR TWO MAY REACH SEVERE LIMITS. STRONG WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN
HAZARD...BUT LARGE HAIL IS A POSSIBILITY. NOT MUCH CHANGE WITH MAX
TEMPS FROM PREV FCST FOR MOST THE WV/VA ZONES BUT DID NUDGE TEMPS
DOWN JUST A TICK ACROSS THE NW ZONES WITH THE EARLIER ARRIVAL OF
DENSE CLOUD COVER. STILL EXPECTING UPPER 80S AND A FEW 90S ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN LOWLANDS.

FRONT WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEASTWARD BECOMING LOCATED NEAR THE I79
CORRIDOR BTWN 00Z THU AND 03Z THU...AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY
09Z - 12Z THU. HAVE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SE OHIO BY 06Z THU
WITH LIKELY POPS CONTINUING IN THE MOUNTAINS...WITH MID/HIGH CHANCE
POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND NO PUBLIC POPS NEAR AND WEST OF THE OHIO
BY 12Z THU. ALSO ENDED THUNDER CHANCES WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE
FRONT ITSELF. WITH THE QUICKER ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT...LOWERED MINS
JUST A BIT OVERALL...BUT PARTICULARLY OVER THE NW ZONES WHERE
DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE IN THE MID 50S BY THE 09Z-12Z THU TIME FRAME.
MIGHT ALSO SEE SOME BRIEF GUSTS AROUND 15KTS OR SO WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE FRONT ITSELF.

THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH FINALLY SWINGS ACROSS BTWN 12Z-18Z THU
WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO BUILD IN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.
WILL KEEP AT LEAST SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS PRIMARILY IN THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF LLVL MOISTURE TRAPPED
UNDERNEATH A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. ELSEWHERE...MOST
LOWLAND LOCATIONS WILL PROBABLY REMAIN DRY WITH MAX TEMPS ONLY IN
THE UPPER 70S. A BIT OF A TOUGH CALL ON SKY COVER...CODED UP PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR THE LOWLANDS BUT SOME
INDICATION THAT A FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CU FIELD MAY REDEVELOP UNDERNEATH
AFOREMENTIONED INVERSION. ENDED ALL PUBLIC POPS BY 03Z FRI WITH
CUMULUS DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT BUT HANGING ON LONGER OF COURSE IN THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS. LOWERED MINS BY A GOOD 4-6 DEGREES PRETTY MUCH
ACROSS THE BOARD WITH MINS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S EXPECTED FOR THE
LOWLANDS BY EARLY FRI.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
POPULATED GRIDS WITH HPC GUIDANCE WITH A FEW MINOR TWEAKS. 5H
TROUGH SLIDES EAST...WHILE AT THE SFC THERE WILL BE AND AREA OF
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE...WITH GENERALLY DRY ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A LARGE OCCLUDING SYSTEM MEANDERS SOUTH FOR
SUNDAY...AS CUT-OFF LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. BOTH ECMWF
AND GFS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN PLAYING OUT THIS SCENARIO LATE
IN THE PERIOD FOR A GENERAL UPSWING IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PREDAWN FOG WAS NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS 24 HOURS AGO OR FORECAST FOR
THIS PREDAWN.  THOUGH...LOW CLOUDS ARE STILL LURKING ON THE EASTERN
SLOPES THOUGH AT DAWN...INCLUDING THE UPPER GREENBRIER VALLEY. SO
SOME CEILINGS NEAR 1 THSD FT INTO 14Z THERE...BEFORE LIFTING.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SLOW MOVING CONVECTION OVER MOUNTAIN COUNTIES
AGAIN TODAY...FIRST PROBABLY FORMING 16Z TO 19Z. WITH MID LEVEL FLOW
STARTING TO VEER TO WEST LATE TODAY...DID NOT INCLUDE ANY CONVECTION
IN CKB TO CRW TAFS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS
INCLUDING BKW VCNTY AFTER DARK THIS EVENING.

CEILINGS 2 TO 4 THSD FT BKN OVER MOUNTAINS NEAR
CONVECTION...OTHERWISE CLOUDS MOSTLY 3 TO 5 THSD FT AGL SCATTERED
AFTER 15Z.

SOME HAZE ALOFT LIKELY TOWARD SUNSET THIS EVENING.  WITH INCREASING
FLOW OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT...ONLY FIGURING ON DEEPER MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS REACHING MVFR IN FOG BY 06Z WEDNESDAY.

HOLDING OFF SHOWERS INTO SE OHIO UNTIL AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...BUT
CLOUDS AT 4 TO 6 THSD FT LIKELY INCREASING THERE NEAR 12Z
WEDNESDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: COVERAGE OF MOUNTAIN CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON
MAY BE ONLY ISOLATED RATHER THAN SCATTERED.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EDT 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH FRONTAL CONVECTION ARRIVING FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.
SECONDLY...IFR POSSIBLE LATER WITH POST FRONTAL CEILINGS ESPECIALLY
OVER MOUNTAINS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
PKB ASOS IS NOT SENDING A COMPLETE OBSERVATION. NWS TECHS WILL BE
LOOKING AT THE PROBLEM TODAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/50
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...KMC
AVIATION...KTB
EQUIPMENT...KTB










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