Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 300726
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
305 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL...DRY AIRMASS HANGS ON THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGHER TEMPERATURES
AND HUMIDITY BEGINNING FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MORNING FOG SHOULD LIFT TO LOW STRATUS THIS MORNING AND BURN OFF.
5H TROUGH SAGGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
LARGE SCALE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS ACROSS NORTHERN OH RIVER VALLEY
TODAY. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED...LOOKS TO BE JUST
ENOUGH CYCLONIC CURVATURE IN THE FLOW COMBINED WITH INSTABILITY TO
ALLOW SOME POPCORN VARIETY SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSHOWERS TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER NRN WV AND SE OH. USED BIAS CORRECTED
VALUES FOR TEMPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS TEMP FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT ON A WEAK BUT SHARPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION...AS THE BERMUDA HIGH IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC EXPANDS WESTWARD. A DRY AND STILL RATHER MILD THURSDAY IS
EXPECTED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST BY FRIDAY...ALLOWING WARMER AND MUCH MORE HUMID AIR TO RETURN
ON SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH UPPER
DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW FAR WEST
WILL THESE DISTURBANCES...AND HENCE THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD...TRACK
AS THEY RIDE UP THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. GENERAL
CONSENSUS...WITH THE NAM A WESTERN OUTLIER...KEEPS MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION THIS PERIOD IN THE MOUNTAINS AND EAST AS AN INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH FORMS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. WILL HAVE HIGH POPS
MOUNTAINS FRIDAY ONWARD...WITH MUCH LOWER POPS WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL THIS
PERIOD...IN THE LOWER 80S...BECAUSE OF THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS
EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY AS A LOW MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. INCREASED
POPS TO HIGH CHANCE/LOWER LIKELIES IN THIS TIME FRAME
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AS
ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE
MIDWEST...DEEPENING THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA...AND KEEPING THE
WEATHER ON THE COOL AND UNSETTLED SIDE. DRIER WEATHER WILL FINALLY
SETTLE IN TOWARDS EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES
OFF TO THE EAST...AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES...RADIATIONAL COOLING AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT ALL
CONTRIBUTING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF MORE MORE VALLEY FG THAN LAST
NIGHT. CARRYING DENSE FOG CRW/EKN/HTS AND IFR FG KPKB WITH SITES
ALREADY APPROACHING DP CROSSOVER POINTS ALREADY. VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN AFTER 13Z WITH SCT TO BKN 4-6 THSD FT STRATOCU. SOME
INSTABILITY DRIVEN SHRA POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AS WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS MAINLY NRN WV AND SE OH.

SURFACE GRADIENTS REMAIN WEAK FOR GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: THE EXTENT OF FG MAY VARY FROM FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    WED 07/30/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    L    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/JMV
NEAR TERM...KMC
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...KMC









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