Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 211836
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
236 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE STRONG COLD FRONT BUILDS IN MONDAY
NIGHT...AND DOMINATES OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK WITH WARM DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT IS WELL DEFINED ON THE SATELLITE IMAGERY/SURFACE PLOTS AS
IT CUTS THROUGH SOUTHERN OHIO TOWARDS THE OHIO RIVER. DEWPOINT DROPS
BEHIND THE FRONT ARE SWIFT...ALONG WITH WINDS GUSTING TO THE 30KT
RANGE AT TIMES BACK IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN OHIO. WATCHING THE
DEWPOINT AT KILN DROP 13 DEGREES FROM 56 TO 43 IN THE LAST HOUR.
COLD FRONTS OFTEN TIMES LIKE TO HANG UP IN THE CWA...PARTICULARLY IN
THE MOUNTAINS...BUT UPPER TROUGH AXIS LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH FOR A
CLEAN SWEEP.

CONVECTION HAS BEGUN AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT COVERAGE IS LESS THAN
OPTIMUM LIKELY DUE TO THE STRATOCUMULUS THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE SINCE
THE MID MORNING HOURS. DO EXPECT AN INCREASE IN THE
ACTIVITY...HOWEVER THE THINKING IS THAT DIURNAL HEATING WILL PLAY AS
MUCH OF A FACTOR AS THE DYNAMICS IN THE AMOUNT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
TODAY. NOT EXPECTING SEVERE...BUT WIND GUSTS CERTAINLY ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE COLD ADVECTION COUPLED WITH SOME LOW LEVEL EVAPORATION.

WILL GET A BRIEF CLEAR AREA BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT WILL QUICKLY BE
FILLED IN BY MORE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH THE AXIS OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. WITH THAT SAID...DESPITE THE TSRA IN THE FORECAST...THIS
SYSTEM RESEMBLES MORE OF A COLD SEASON WAVE CYCLONE AS WE TRANSITION
TOWARDS FALL.

WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE 60S AS THE CLOUDS DISSIPATE EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A VERY TRANQUIL AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN IS INDICATED BY ALL THE
MODELS...WHICH IS EXPECTED AT THIS CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRIEST TIME OF
THE YEAR. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE
REGION. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EACH DAY AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AT NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY AIR
WILL LEAD TO CHILLY TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT...AND SOME NORTHERN
MOUNTAIN VALLEY FROST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT A WIDE RANGE IN DIURNAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S FOR THE LOW
LANDS. LEANING ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE BY DAY AND LOWER SIDE
BY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST COAST BY THURSDAY AND
ALLOW A MODEST INCREASE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...UPPER RIDGING ALOFT WILL HOLD.
SO WHILE SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN AS TIME GOES ON...THE
PROSPECTS OF ANY RAIN ARE VERY LOW AT BEST. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
BANKING UP AGAINST EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL ONLY
BRING INCREASED CLOUDS BY THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...SUNSHINE WILL
DOMINATE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THERE WILL BE A SLOW WARMING TREND
WITH HIGHS TO AROUND 80 BY THE WEEKEND AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S
IN THE LOW LANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LACKING SOME CONFIDENCE IN THE AVIATION FORECAST TODAY.

COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST WILL BE A QUICK MOVER THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...DRIVEN BY A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. A LINE OF
CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY FORMING WITH THIS COLD FRONT WHICH
DOMINATES THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THE FORECAST.

THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE OF SOME GUSTY WINDS THAT ARE
ALREADY INCREASING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. ALSO INCLUDE BKW/MOUNTAINS
IN THE BETTER TSRA THREAT. HAVE TEMPO GROUPS FOR SHRA ONLY AT HTS
AND CRW.

THE FRONT ITSELF IS LOOKING A LITTLE RAGGED...SO THE COVERAGE OF
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS IS QUESTIONABLE AT THE TIME OF THIS
FORECAST. THIS IS THE REASON FOR THE TEMPOS INSTEAD OF THE
PREVAILING CONDITIONS IN THE TAFS.

WIND SHIFTS TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH WIND SPEEDS
COMING DOWN BELOW 10KTS TONIGHT.

EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO PERSIST BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE ADVECTION
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. OPTED
AGAINST FOG GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND PRESSURE GRADIENT WINDS STAYING
AROUND 5KTS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND COVERAGE OF CONVECTION MAY VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    M

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
IFR STRATUS POSSIBLE MON MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. IFR
VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE TUE MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG RIVERS AND IN
BETTER SHELTERED VALLEYS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...26








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