Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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114
FXUS61 KRLX 201007
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
507 AM EST Mon Feb 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Foggy this morning. Unseasonably warm through the work week
Weak system late Tuesday into Wednesday. A more organized
system drifts through to end the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 120 AM Monday...
Dense fog along the Ohio river this morning - issued a Dense Fog
Advisory due to the extent and intensity. Fog elsewhere, but
likely not as widespread. Fog should begin to mix and burn off
after daybreak. A warm, dry, and sunny day on tap with
temperatures topping of near 70 F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

As of 500 AM Monday...
Based on observations and webcams, added another row of counties
to Fog Advisory.

As of 300 AM Monday...

Unseasonably warm weather continues through mid week, with
afternoon highs in the 60s and low 70s across much of the CWA.
A relatively weak cold front crosses Tuesday and Tuesday night.
The NAM is starting to show a surface wave develops along the
front, which is a pretty typical scenario. With this in mind,
have an area of likely POPs Tuesday evening into overnight, and
linger some POPs into Wednesday.

Have POPs increasing again Wednesday night as a warm front
develops, however model differences leads to some uncertainty
with this.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 300 AM Monday...

As mentioned in the short term, some models showing a warm front
developing across the CWA on Thursday. However, new 00Z ECMWF
has shifted north with this and keeps CWA mostly dry. With
decent moisture inflow and warm temperatures, decided to keep
POPs in the forecast, with showers and thunderstorms lifting
through.

Linger some low end POPs Friday as well in the warm sector, and
then have POPs increasing pretty quickly Friday night as a cold
front moves through. ECMWF pretty quick on moving the moisture
out by Saturday afternoon, while the GFS has wrap-around
moisture lingering. For now stuck closer to the ECMWF and have
POPs ending by Saturday night, with a dry forecast on Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1250 AM Monday...

Foggy with plenty of IFR overnight. VFR and mostly clear by
16Z. MVFR stratus in the northeast may inhibit fog formation
there.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Eastern extent of LIFR is questionable.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE               MON 02/20/17
UTC 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
EST 1HRLY       05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    M    L    M    L    M    L    H    H    H    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    L    L    M    L    H    H    H    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    L    M    H    L    M    H    H    H    H    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    L    L    M    M    L    M    H    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    M    M    H    H    H    H    M    M

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
WIDESPREAD IFR NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for WVZ005>011-
     013>019.
OH...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for OHZ066-067-
     075-076-083>087.
KY...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for KYZ101>103-
     105.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JW
NEAR TERM...JW
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...JW



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