Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 270749
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
349 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING. ANOTHER SKIRTS ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. A
FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH AXIS RIDING UP E SIDE OF MAIN TROUGH
AXIS OVER THE MIDWEST...LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING...TAKING BAND OF SHOWERS WITH IT. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAVE
BEHIND SOME MORNING MIST AND STRATOCU THAT WILL THEN BURN OFF AND
MIX OUT BY LATER THIS MORNING.

MODELS DRY THE COLUMN OUT CONSIDERABLY...ALLOWING FOR SIGNIFICANT
MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. NAM CRANKS THE CAPE TO 1500-2000
J/KG IN RESPONSE BY LATE IN THE DAY...AS THE MIDWEST S/W TROUGH
APPROACHES. THIS COULD LEAD TO RATHER STRONG THUNDERSTORMS W OF
THE OHIO RIVER...ESPECIALLY INTERIOR SE OHIO...WHERE THE FLOW IS
STRONGEST. FARTHER E...LIGHTER FLOW AND LITTLE OR NO TRIGGER
SPELLS LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY INTO THIS EVENING.

THE CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS LATE TODAY SHIFTS SLOWLY E/NEWD T AND
WANES TONIGHT AS THE FORCING S/W TROUGH LIFTS NEWD INTO THE ST
LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.

LIKED HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS GIVEN AMPLE SUNSHINE FOR A
TIME TODAY AND ALSO STAYED ON HIGH SIDE FOR LOWS TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE HOT...HUMID...AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE PERIOD. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY...BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BY
FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRIMARILY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH ANY RIPPLE IN THE FLOW WILL
ONLY HELP TO TRIGGER CONVECTION. SEVERE POTENTIAL DURING THE
PERIOD APPEARS TO BE LOW...ALTHOUGH THE THREAT FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WILL CONTINUE. HEIGHTS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY BUILD THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY ACROSS THE REGION OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...WHICH WILL AFFECT THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. MAX
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL SOAR INTO THE UPPER 80S FOR
MOST OF THE AREA...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER 90S IN A FEW SPOTS
BY FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS JUST OFF THE E COAST OVER THE WEEKEND...OWING
TO DEEP MOIST S FLOW...WITH VARIOUS UPPER AIR IMPULSES TO FURTHER
AID IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. GENERALLY HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
ESPECIALLY SUN AND MON. CONTINUED WARM AND MUGGY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
N-S ORIENTED BAND OF SHOWERS MOVING SLOWLY EWD WITH THE
INDIVIDUAL CELLS MOVING NWD OVERNIGHT...BRINGING MVFR CONDITIONS
WITH IT. THE THUNDER HAD ALL BUT WANED...BUT A HEAVIER DOWNPOUR
COULD STILL PRODUCE BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS. POST RAIN FOG OR MIST IS
POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY WED MORNING. MVFR STRATOCU IS ALSO LIKELY
TO FORM NEAR DAYBREAK WED AND THEN LIFT AND BREAK UP TOWARD MIDDAY
WED.

THE WARM AND HUMID PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH WED AND WED NT.
EXPECTING A VFR AFTERNOON WITH A RELATIVE DEARTH OF ACTIVITY ON
RADAR. THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED
WED EVENING BEGINNING IN THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY...AND AGAIN
WORKING SLOWLY EWD.

SFC FLOW WILL CONTINUE LIGHT S TO SE BY NT AND S TO SW BY DAY
WHILE LIGHT TO MODERATE SW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES. THE LIGHTER FLOW
ALOFT COMPARED WITH TUE SPELLS SLIGHTLY LESS STRENGTH TO THE
THUNDERSTORMS WED EVENING COMPARED WITH TUE EVENING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VSBY MAY DROP BRIEFLY LOWER THAN FORECAST IN
CONVECTION. LOWER CEILINGS THAN FORECAST MAY ALSO FORM 06Z TO 12Z
WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE CONVECTION IN THE MUGGY LATE NIGHT
AIR.

.AFTER 06Z THURSDAY... IFR IN MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATE
SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

&&


WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...TRM


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