Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 210600
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
100 AM EST Tue Nov 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure yields to southwest flow overnight and Tuesday.
Cold front crosses Tuesday night. High pressure again through
Thanksgiving and Friday. Cold front crosses Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 100 AM Tuesday...

Forecast on track.

As of 1005 PM Monday...

No changes this evening.

As of 615 PM Monday...

Gave the sky grids and overnight lows some TLC, but no major
changes otherwise.

As of 202 PM Monday...

Main forecast concern through the near term will be
temperatures and winds as southwest flow engages behind a
departing high pressure system and in advance of an approaching
cold front.

With light winds anticipated early tonight, prime radiational
cooling conditions will result in a quick temp drop toward
dewpoints which currently reside in the low 20s. Temps will
level off later in the night across the lowlands as winds begin
to stir. However, sheltered mountain valleys will stay decoupled
through much of the night allowing them to fall deep into the
20s.

Winds will ramp up quickly after dawn on Tuesday as we mix up
into stronger winds aloft. Gusts 20 to 25 mph are expected out
of the southwest. The strong mixing and partial sunshine will
help boost temps into the 50s to near 60 for most locations
outside of the higher mountains. Clouds will be on the increase
through the day, but expect any precip with the approaching
front to hold off until Tuesday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 240 PM Monday...

This period begins with a cold front approaching from the
northwest. Although we are expecting precipitation, amounts
still remain on the light side as the WPC QPF is only around
one tenth of an inch. Models indicate the northern quarter of
our area and the mountains will be the only locations that will
see the precipitation change over to a snow or rain/snow mix as
this system moves out early Wednesday.

Prefrontal temperatures will be near normal Tuesday night, but
will drop quickly as cold air moves. Temperatures Wednesday and
Wednesday night will be around 10 degrees below normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 240 PM Monday...

High pressure, with below normal temperatures and light winds,
will be present Thanksgiving Day until early Saturday morning.

Although models still disagree somewhat another rain or
rain/snow event, especially for the northern part of our area,
is possible as yet another cold front moves in.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 100 AM Tuesday...

VFR overnight and Tuesday with cirrus the dominant cloud type,
with additional FEW030 morning cu developing during mixing of
the boundary layer Tuesday.

Low level moisture will be drawn up across the central
Appalachians from the south, out ahead of a cold front
approaching from the northwest. This could bring MVFR ceilings
to the mountains Tuesday night, starting around 01Z BKW and then
around 04Z EKN. BKW ceilings could drop to near IFR by 06Z
Wednesday. Elsewhere, higher SCT-BKN stratocu is expected
Tuesday night, as the cold front moves into the middle Ohio
Valley. A light rain shower is possible in east central Ohio,
and into northern WV, late Tuesday night.

Light south to southeast surface flow overnight, will increase
and become south to southwest on Tuesday, with wind gusts to
20kts possible during mixing from afternoon heating. These
southwest winds will diminish Tuesday evening. Flow aloft will
be moderate southwest.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog could form at EKN overnight. Timing and
extent of MVFR stratocu could vary Tuesday and Tuesday night.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                  TUE 11/21/17
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EST 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions expected.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...ABE/TRM/26
SHORT TERM...AB
LONG TERM...AB
AVIATION...TRM


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