Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 222023
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
411 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY. DRY COLD FRONT
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY/MONDAY. WARMING MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY...PULLING DEEPER MOISTURE AWAY FOR
THE REGION. EVEN SO...WITH UPSLOPE WIND FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINING...SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY
OVERNIGHT IN THE WV MOUNTAINS. EXPECT SOME CLEARING IN THE WESTERN
COUNTIES OVERNIGHT...AND EVEN MORE ON THURSDAY. IN AREAS WHERE
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...WILL GO ON THE WARMER SIDE OF MOS
GUIDANCE AS IT TENDS TO RADIATE TOO MUCH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BACKED OFF MOST OF THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH. SIMPLY NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE TO DO
MUCH OF ANYTHING...SO WILL LEAVE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE
FORECAST.

MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OFF TO THE WEST WILL SLOWLY
DECAY WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT TRUDGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. WE
WILL GET CLIPPED ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS COLD FRONT AND
AGAIN...WILL KEEP THIS FEATURE PRIMARILY DRY. AFFECTS...IN THIS
CASE...WILL BE LITTLE MORE THAN INCREASED CLOUD COVER.

IN THE END...DESPITE TWO DIFFERENT WEATHER SYSTEMS...VERY LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MAY HAVE SOME HOLLOWS GETTING INTO THE FROST
GAME...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST OHIO WITH SOME CLEARING CONDITIONS
AND TEMPERATURES GETTING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S ALTHOUGH THE
CLOUDS WILL BE THE STICKING POINT HERE. SAME APPLIES TO SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE...SHOULD STILL HAVE A NICE DEW
POINT GRADIENT SATURDAY EVENING.  WILL LEAVE A TOKEN 10 PERCENT POP
SATURDAY EVENING.

FIGURING NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE TO THE COLD
AIR ADVECTION STRATOCUMULUS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.  WIND SHOULD
STILL BE STIRRING MOST OF SATURDAY NIGHT...SO DIFFICULT MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. COUNTING ON GOOD
NOCTURNAL COOLING FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...WENT COLDER WITH MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE MARGINAL FOR FROST IN THE LOWLANDS. WILL HOLD OFF
INCLUDING IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL AT THIS DISTANCE IN
TIME...5TH NIGHT.

500 MB RIDGE AXIS PASSES ABOUT MONDAY NIGHT.  WILL GO WARMING FOR
TUESDAY AND INCREASE WINDS.

CONFIDENCE LOWERS FOR THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY...TIMING NEXT 500 MB TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.
DELAYED MENTION OF POPS FOR MOST COUNTIES.  ECMWF EVEN SLOWER IN ITS
12Z RUN WITH STRONGER 500 MB TROF IN THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY.


&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STRATUS DECK WILL GRADUALLY RAISE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
COULD PRODUCE A FEW RESTRICTIONS IN THE WV MOUNTAINS OR NORTHEASTERN
WV. THE STRATUS DECK WILL LOWER SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT...BUT CLEAR SOME
FROM THE WEST. THE DECK WILL RAISE AND BECOME MORE OF A CUMULUS DECK
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THINNING CONSIDERABLY FROM THE SOUTH AND
WEST.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND LOCATIONS OF SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS COULD VARY. TIMING OF STRATUS RAISING COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EDT 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/RPY
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...RPY










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