Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 010602
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1223 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM FRONT LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER WEATHER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
WARM/COLD FRONT COMBO TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
PRECIPITATION SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. MODELS WARM THE LAYERS ABOVE FREEZING MORE OR LESS AT THE
SAME TIME ALTHOUGH BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DO SUGGEST A SHALLOW LAYER OF
COLD AIR HANGING ON INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY TO THE NW OF
THE OHIO RIVER...AND IN THE GREENBRIER VALLEY. HOWEVER...MOST
PLACES SHOULD BE WARMER THAN FREEZING BY 9 AM SUNDAY.

STILL GETTING AROUND 2 INCHES SNOW PERRY AND MORGAN COUNTIES TO KEEP
THE ADVISORY GOING THERE...WITH A TOUCH OF FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE
THERE IN THE TRANSITION. ANY FREEZING RAIN ELSEWHERE IS EXPECTED
TO BE BRIEF AND RELATIVELY INCONSEQUENTIAL. ISSUED AN SPS
REGARDING THE FREEZING RAIN/WINTRY MIX THREAT OVER NON-ADVISED
COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES SUNDAY NIGHT UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW
BEHIND FIRST COLD FRONT TRANSITIONING PCPN INTO A MIX OR SNOW WITH
LINGERING MOISTURE. PCPN SHOULD BRIEFLY END SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHES.

A BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH DRY
WEATHER. BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST
TO BRING WAA. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH LATE MONDAY NIGHT NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...TO BRING CHANCES OF PCPN TO THE AREA. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
FROM THE GFS SUGGEST ONSET OF PCPN AS FZRA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD
OF THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE SWITCHING TO RAIN.  MODELS
INDICATE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AT H850 UNDER AROUND 50 KNOTS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH TEMPERATURES INCREASING FROM 4C TO 9C BY 06
WEDNESDAY. THEREFORE...EXPECT MOST PCPN IN THE FORM OF RAIN THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. A BRIEF WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR
THAT AREA FOR FREEZING RAIN TUESDAY MORNING.

CONCERNS CONTINUES AS EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN IS FORECAST TUESDAY
INTO MID WEEK. WITH WET TERRAIN...SNOW PACK AND WHATEVER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OCCUR...FLOODING THREAT INCREASES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THERE IS MORE LIQUID EQUIVALENT IN THE DEEPER SNOW PACK OVER THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS...WHERE FLOODING IS MORE LIKELY.


KEPT HIGH POPS WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM RANGING FROM
CATEGORICAL SOUTHEAST OH...AND WESTERN HALF OF WV INCLUDING THE
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. H850 WINDS
INCREASE TO NEAR 70 KNOTS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH STRONG WAA
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

WENT WITH BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS MOS BLENDED WITH ALL BLEND
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM STARTS OUT RATHER SOAKING WET. COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY BE
PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...ENHANCING PRECIPITATION AS IT DOES SO.
STILL LOOKING LIKE HEAVY RAIN ON WEDNESDAY...IN THE MOIST
ATMOSPHERE...ALONG WITH SOME RATHER GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. RAISED WIND GUSTS AND ADDED HEAVY RAIN
WORDING IN THE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY PERIOD.

FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EAST THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH
COLDER AIR RUSHING IN...AND A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AREA WIDE. ITS
POSSIBLE THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS...BUT WITH THE
WET...WARM GROUND...AT THIS POINT NOT SURE HOW MUCH WILL ACTUALLY BE
ABLE TO ACCUMULATE.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE EXITING FRONT FOR FRIDAY
INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED. WITH TEMPERATURES DIPPING BELOW
NORMAL ONCE AGAIN.

WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT WATER ISSUES FOR NEXT WEEK IN THE HWO.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE PRECIPITATION TODAY WITH RESTRICTIONS IN
VISIBILITIES AND CLOUDS. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS SNOW ACROSS
CENTRAL OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...WITH A WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO...NORTHERN KY...AND CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA. RAIN
CAN BE EXPECTED SOUTH OF THESE AREAS. THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL
CHANGE TO RAIN DURING THE MORNING HOURS...GRADUALLY PUSHING
NORTHWARD.

A COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME BRIEF SNOW CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT LATE TONIGHT AS THE PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END.
EXPECT A STRATUS DECK BEHIND THE FRONT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF ONSET OF PRECIPITATION AND ASSOCIATED
LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   SUN 03/01/15
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    H    H    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    L    L    H    H    M    M    H

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN OR MIXED RAIN/SNOW LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. IFR
POSSIBLE AGAIN IN RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 1 PM
     EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ035-036.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 7 PM
     EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ046.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     OHZ066-067.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/SL/30/JW
NEAR TERM...JW
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...RPY









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