Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 270006
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
806 PM EDT TUE JUL 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak east to west frontal boundary continues across northern
portions of area. Weak upper level short wave trough moving
eastward along it exits tonight. Next system late in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
800 pm update...
Forecast on track as main area of showers and thunderstorms,
associated with an upper level trough, moves out of the area.
Still allow for a slight chance overnight.

545 pm update...
Hiked PoPs into this evening with thunderstorm complex associated
with weak upper level short wave trough rolling through.

Previous discussion...
A weak but persistent east to west frontal boundary meanders back
and forth across the northern portions of the area this
period. The addition of upper disturbances riding eastward across
the area on the southern edge of westerlies and PW`s aoa 2 inches
will lend to a general unsettled pattern for showers and storms.
Will tie the best chance for convection to the favored afternoon
adn early night time frame. Have hoisted a flash flood watch most
of northern half of area through 11 pm tonight...given one well
defined vort max over southwestern Ohio and increasing area of
heavy convection well ahead of it near the frontal boundary.

Otherwise...as the vort moves east of the area tonight...expect
convection to really diminish...leaving widely scattered showers
in the north after midnight. Will do similar pops again Wednesday
with little change in the pattern.

It will continue hot and humid through Wednesday...but should be a
touch below heat advisory criteria.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Active weather to start the short term period...with warm and humid
conditions to persist. Stalled frontal boundary across northern
zones will lift north of the area during the day Thursday as upper
shortwave trough approaches from the west. Strong llj developing
across the region...will aid in moisture transport...with pw values
rising to over 2 inches Thursday. Wave of low pressure moving north
through the region Thursday and Thursday night...will help to
enhance precipitation...with showers and thunderstorms...with heavy
downpours expected. In addition...could see strong to severe storms
during the afternoon and evening hours on Thursday...with the
potential for stronger winds aloft to be brought down to the
surface. Will place the mention of possible water headlines for the
Thursday/Thursday night time frame. Still difficult to pinpoint any
area of heaviest precipitation/greatest threat...so will highlight
entire cwa in the hwo for now.

Additional showers and thunderstorms expected for later in the day
Friday and Friday night as an  upper shortwave trough crosses the
area.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Weather looks to remain unsettled for the first part of the extended
period as additional disturbances move through the region. Drier
weather possible early to mid next week as upper ridging strengthens
across the region.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Last of the showers and thunderstorms associated with an upper
level short wave trough crossing the area were crossing the
mountains as of 00Z. They will move on out by 02Z, with MVFR
conditions the likeliest worst impact, with a very low chance for
thunder.

While a shower or thunderstorm remains possible overnight and
Wednesday, the expected coverage is too low to explicitly code up
in the TAFs. However, there will be some uptick in coverage in the
afternoon heating on Wednesday.

Otherwise, valley fog is possible overnight through dawn unless a
stratocu deck forms again.

Surface flow will be light and variable except for strong gusts in
thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon. Flow aloft will continue light
west.

CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of Fog formation and intensity may
vary overnight. A shower or thunderstorm could directly affect any
TAF site Wednesday afternoon.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
EDT 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M

AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
Brief IFR conditions possible in thunderstorms every afternoon
and evening. Early morning IFR fog possible into mid week
depending, in part, on occurrence of showers or thunderstorms the
previous afternoon or night.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Flash Flood Watch until 10 PM EDT this evening for WVZ007>011-
     016>020-028>032-039-040-047.
OH...Flash Flood Watch until 10 PM EDT this evening for OHZ075-076-
     083>087.
KY...Flash Flood Watch until 10 PM EDT this evening for KYZ101.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM/JMV
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...TRM



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