Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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800
FXUS61 KRLX 010059
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
859 PM EDT Sun Apr 30 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold front Monday. Upper low with unsettled weather to end the work
week. Deepening low pressure system for Thursday and Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 845 PM Sunday...
Weakening line of mainly rain showers lifting northeast thru
central KY at time. Updated to include a small pop into
northeast KY and southeast OH counties late this evening before
this leading line dissipates. Then, as per previous forecast,
main band comes in Monday morning.


As of 214 PM Sunday...

Showers and thunderstorms should dissipate this evening. With winds
not expected to decouple tonight due to a good pressure gradient,
will go above MOS lows at all sites.

A cold front will then push through on Monday. With the front being
fairly strong, models are showing some good lift. There is also some
upper air support. Therefore, will increase the pops some. Will also
adjust the timing a bit and tighten up the pop gradient.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 235 PM Sunday...

A much cooler airmass settles in during the short term periods,
accentuated in the afternoon by decent mixing winds. Increasing
clouds by Wednesday with shower chances increasing late as low
level warm front develops across the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 240 PM Sunday...

Still seeing model discrepancies with the evolution of the
omega block and subsequent low pressure across the eastern part
of the country. We will continue to ride the Superblend for
sensible weather grids which feature a continuation of the cool
air but introducing a rather wet period.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
01Z Monday thru 00Z Tuesday... As of 850 PM Sunday...

A strong cold front will move rapidly eastward across the area
Monday.

Ahead of the front tonight, VFR with lowering mid to high
clouds, especially west where isolated showers may edge into
into our area west of the Ohio River. South winds tonight mostly
8 to 13 KTS, higher in mountains.

After 12Z, look for a band of showers and thunderstorms along
and just ahead of the front, generally lasting for a 2 or 3 hour
Prevailing conditions in the this band of convection will be
VFR to MVFR, but locally IFR in the strongest convection. Gusty
south winds 15 to 25 kts ahead of the front with some higher
gusts will turn southwest behind the front at the same speeds.
Some of the storms may be strong enough for gusts to 40 KTS,
especially mountains. Look for rapid improvement to VFR SCT
stratocu in a dry slot behind the front. Cold advection VFR
stratocu will rush back in behind the dry slot late on Monday
with winds slowly decreasing by 00Z with loss of heating.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of the front may vary by an hour or
two.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            MON 05/01/17
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
IFR possible in showers and storms Monday afternoon.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/JMV/JW
NEAR TERM...RPY/JMV
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...JMV



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