Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KRLX 310205
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1001 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE INTO TONIGHT. LOW PASSES NORTH WITH COLD FRONT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE MID WEEK. WARMER THURSDAY.
STRONGER COLD FRONT FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK. NO MAJOR CHANGES EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
850 MB COLD AIR ADVECTION 00Z TO 03Z WEDNESDAY...WILL TRY TO HOLD
ONTO SOME SMALL AREAS OF LKLY POPS IN OUR CNTRL WV MOUNTAINS.  GUSTY
WINDS SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET. 850 MB THERMAL TROF HOLD OVER US THROUGH
06Z-09Z...WITH SOME WARMING BEFORE 12Z WEDNESDAY.  MARGINAL 850 MB
MOISTURE MAKES CLOUD FORECAST DIFFICULT OVERNIGHT. STILL COUNTING ON
NUMEROUS BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY 06Z TO 12Z THURSDAY. SO
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE
TO RAISE OUR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TO 12Z GFS MOS LEVELS.

STILL PLEASANT DAY FIGURED FOR WEDNESDAY...HOPEFULLY IT IS NOT AN
APRIL FOOLS.  WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES SLOW TO WARM AND LIGHT
WINDS...WILL REMAIN UNDER 12Z GFS MOS TEMPERATURES FOR MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES.

PSEUDO WARM FRONT THURSDAY...INSTABILITY LIMITED. INCREASED
SURFACE WINDS WITH 925 MB FLOW AROUND 30 KNOTS BY 15Z. KEPT A
CHANCE OF THUNDER IN OUR WESTERN LOWLANDS.  POPS RAMP UP IN
SOUTHEAST OHIO BEFORE 00Z FRIDAY...BUT MAIN COLD FRONTAL ZONE STILL
REMAINING TO OUR WEST. STILL HAVING LOWLANDS REACHING MID/UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RATHER UNSETTLED END TO THE WORK WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
FRONT TO BE SLOWED BY A SURFACE WAVE. WILL BE WATCHING THE TRENDS TO
SEE IF ANY WATER ISSUES ARISE. THE EASTER WEEKEND...THOUGH...IS
SHAPING UP TO BE MAINLY DRY WITH SEASONAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT. A SYSTEM PASSING NORTH OF
THE AREA WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS AND A COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY. EVEN
SO...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT MOST LOCATIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME
MVFR RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN NORTHEASTERN WV TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: SOME RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN NORTHEASTERN WV.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EDT 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH RH VALUES
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY
ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY. HAVE GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS ACROSS ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...GENERALLY 10-15MPH GUSTING
20-25MPH. THIS WILL HELP DRY FUELS OUT FOLLOWING WEEKEND RAIN OR
SNOW.

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AND DECREASE SOME
OVERNIGHT...BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN ON TUESDAY. EXPECTING SW
WINDS 15-20MPH...GUSTING 30-40MPH. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
BE A BIT HIGHER THAN TODAY BUT STILL HAVE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. SOME RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...BUT THE
CHANCE OF A WETTING RAIN IS RELATIVELY LOW.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/MZ/26
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...MZ

FIRE WEATHER...RPY









USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.