Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 250003
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
803 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Increasingly warmer and more humid air encroaches. High pressure
maintains a foothold on the area though afternoon showers and
thunderstorms possible.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 800 PM Wednesday...
Tweaked sky grids for the next 6 hours. Expecting clouds from
dying MCS to cover the area tonight. Rest of forecast remains
representative.

Previous discussion below...
As of 145 PM Wednesday...

Generally quiet for the remainder of the afternoon with just some
flat cu with some cirrus thrown in for good measure.

For tonight we will be tracking a mid level feature moving across
the area. Models are by and large in agreement on any line of
shra/tsra weakening on approach. So...will continue with previous
forecast idea of chance pops and roll with coverage wording. With
this feature moving across with some clouds amid a strengthening
low level flow...dense fog should be confined to the more
sheltered mountain valleys and hollows.

This disturbance moves E of the area by midday Thursday with mid
level drying left in its wake to keep things warm and primarily
dry for the afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 345 PM Wednesday...

Hot and humid weather expected again for late August. Broad area
of high pressure will act to minimize any fronts that move into
the area mainly just increasing cloud cover and perhaps kicking
off an aftn shower or tstorm. Any severe weather should remain
north of our area though will not rule out any isolated water
issues especially near the more juicy air in Ohio.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 335 PM Wednesday...

Stubborn high pressure continues though begins to erode as a
tropical system slides westward into the Gulf of Mexico. Flow
turns more zonal over our area though no appreciable weather in
this period at this time. Maintained schc to chance PoPs for the
dirty ridge.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 7 PM Wednesday...

00Z Thursday through 00Z Friday...
High pressure provides widespread VFR conditions through at least
06Z. Models show h925 level winds around 20 knots. Satellite
images show the remnants of a dying MCS which may result in mostly
cloudy skies with ceilings 6000 to 70000 kfeet and light rain if
any. These conditions create good ventilation preventing river
vally dense fog formation tonight.

However, deep protected valleys like EKN may see some fog during
the predawn hours.

VFR thru 06z amid some flat cu and cirrus.

VFR conditions will  prevail Thursday under high pressure.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Low stratus could form overnight western
slopes.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            THU 08/25/16
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L

AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
IFR in morning river valley fog possible through the
weekend...depending on cloud cover.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JW/30
NEAR TERM...ARJ/30
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...JW
AVIATION...ARJ



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