Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 301352
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
952 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak cool front crosses today. Upper level ridge rebuilds for mid
week. Cold front arrives Thursday with showers and storms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1000 AM update...
No changes this morning.

Previous discussion...
The line of showers and thunderstorms that moved across Ohio and
Northern Kentucky overnight...is dissipating as it gets to the
Ohio River early this morning. Expect little will survive east of
the Ohio River before it dissipates by dawn. The very weak cool
front that generated the convection...identified mainly by lower
dewpoints behind it...is still over western Ohio and western
Kentucky early this morning. However...this front will act in a
typical summer time fashion...where the upper support and deeper
moisture has continued to track east ahead of the surface front.
We expect that after any early morning fog dissipates...and with
diurnal heating later this morning and afternoon...the surface
front will literally jump eastward across the area as drier air
aloft mixes down. The front will likely jump through our western
zones around mid morning...through central WV by early
afternoon...and through the mountains by late afternoon...with
winds turning northwesterly and bringing some drier air in behind
the front. With the drying out process aloft ahead of the
front...we expect just mainly widely scattered showers and perhaps
a thunderstorm to work eastward with the front. Will confine most
pops with the front to the east of the Ohio River today...with
best chance in the mountains in the afternoon heat.
Otherwise...cold advection is lacking behind this front...and with
more sunshine today...temperatures will actually be at least a few
degrees warmer than yesterday...in the lower to mid 80s. So going
on the high end of guidance.

For tonight...look for clearing skies and decreasing winds to
enhance radiational cooling in the drier air...so temperatures
will actually be cooler tonight. look for lows ranging from the
upper 50s north to the lower 60s south with some late night fog.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Much of short term periods will feature mainly tranquil wx. Upper
level heights will quickly build back over the region Tuesday into
Wednesday before height falls work back in with the approach of
the next wx maker. As for Tuesday and Wednesday...kept isolated
mention of popup shra/tsra over portions of the northern
mountains...otherwise rolling with a dry and warm forecast. I
suspect there will be the daily morning does of dense river valley
fog to contend with.

As mentioned above...an amplifying trof will move into the upper
Great Lakes Wednesday night into Thursday. This will bring a cold
front thru long about Thursday. This will bring a good chance of
shra/tsra to the area and have coded up pops into the likely
range.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
230 AM UPDATE...

Model consensus is for a deeper push of drier air into the area
later Friday and Saturday. Updated pops to reflect this drier
trend taking hold.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

Another cold front approaches from the west Friday morning. Kept
high chance PoPs lowlands and likely PoPs over elevations of 3000
feet and higher.

Current track of remnants of tropical storm Bonnie approach from
the southeast Thursday through Friday. Attm, seems that the
showers will stay over the eastern mountains Wednesday and
Wednesday night. An upper trough moves east across the Great Lakes
region on Sunday. This second system is strong enough to drive a
weak front across the area Sunday night and Monday morning.

Went with a combination of the super blend and the all blend
guidance for temperatures through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
12Z Monday thru 12Z Tuesday..

Any river valley fog mixes out by 13z. Cold front crossing the
area during the day may combine with diurnal heating to generate a
few showers or perhaps a thunderstorm after 16z. These will be
mainly over eastern WV and not enough coverage to go with more
than VCTS in CKB...EKN...BKW. Otherwise...VFR sct-bkn 4000-6000
feet agl outside of any convection. light and variable winds will
become northwest behind the front at 5 to 8 kts.

After 00Z basically vfr mostly clear. Dense river valley fog
forming 05Z-07Z affecting major terminals.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Any showers today may be fewer than forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23
EDT 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
River valley IFR fog possible early Tuesday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/SL
NEAR TERM...JMV/26
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...ARJ/30
AVIATION...JMV



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