Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX10 KWNP 041315
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2015 Jul 04 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jul 04-Jul 06 2015 is 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jul 04-Jul 06 2015

            Jul 04     Jul 05     Jul 06
00-03UT        1          3          4
03-06UT        2          4          4
06-09UT        1          5 (G1)     4
09-12UT        1          5 (G1)     3
12-15UT        2          5 (G1)     2
15-18UT        2          4          2
18-21UT        2          4          2
21-00UT        3          4          3

Rationale: The onset of a negative polarity coronal hole high speed
stream (CH HSS) on day two (05 Jul) is likely to cause periods of G1
(Minor) geomagnetic storming.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jul 04-Jul 06 2015

              Jul 04  Jul 05  Jul 06
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Jul 03 2015 1251 UTC

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jul 04-Jul 06 2015

              Jul 04        Jul 05        Jul 06
R1-R2           10%           10%           10%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio
blackouts over all three days (04-06 Jul) primarily due to the flare
potential from regions 2378, 2376, and 2373.


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