Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX10 KWNP 230030
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2017 Oct 23 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 23-Oct 25 2017 is 6 (NOAA Scale
G2).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 23-Oct 25 2017

            Oct 23     Oct 24     Oct 25
00-03UT        2          2          6 (G2)
03-06UT        1          2          6 (G2)
06-09UT        2          2          5 (G1)
09-12UT        1          2          5 (G1)
12-15UT        1          3          4
15-18UT        1          3          4
18-21UT        1          4          4
21-00UT        2          5 (G1)     5 (G1)

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels are likely on day two (24
Oct) with G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) levels likely on day three (25 Oct) due
to the onset of a recurrent, positive polarity CH HSS.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Oct 23-Oct 25 2017

              Oct 23  Oct 24  Oct 25
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Oct 23-Oct 25 2017

              Oct 23        Oct 24        Oct 25
R1-R2           10%           10%           10%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio
blackouts for the forecast period (23-25 Oct).



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