Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX10 KWNP 281231
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2015 Mar 28 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Mar 28-Mar 30 2015 is 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Mar 28-Mar 30 2015

            Mar 28     Mar 29     Mar 30
00-03UT        0          5 (G1)     4
03-06UT        2          4          3
06-09UT        3          4          3
09-12UT        3          4          3
12-15UT        2          4          3
15-18UT        2          4          3
18-21UT        4          4          2
21-00UT        5 (G1)     4          2

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are expected on 28-29 Mar due
to influence from the southern polar coronal hole high speed stream.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Mar 28-Mar 30 2015

              Mar 28  Mar 29  Mar 30
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Mar 28-Mar 30 2015

              Mar 28        Mar 29        Mar 30
R1-R2           25%           25%           25%
R3 or greater    5%            5%            5%

Rationale: A chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts exists
due to flare potential from Regions 2305 or 2309.


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