Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Tiyan, Guam

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
375
AXGM70 PGUM 230153
DGTGUM
PMZ181-060200-
MAJURO-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
1130 AM CHST THU MAR 23 2017

...SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS PERSIST IN THE NORTHERN AND FAR
NORTHWESTERN MARSHALL ISLANDS...

SYNOPSIS...
THE ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL JUNE AND SEASONAL
TRADE WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE OVER MOST OF MICRONESIA THE NEXT COUPLE
OF MONTHS. RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER IS ENTRENCHED NORTH OF 8N FROM THE
DATE LINE WESTWARD TO YAP STATE. THE SOUTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS...THE
FEDERATED STATES OF MICRONESIA INCLUDING KAPINGAMARANGI AND THE
REMAINDER OF THE US-AFFILIATED MICRONESIAN ISLANDS SOUTH OF 8N
SHOULD HAVE ADEQUATE RAINFALL AS TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE CONTINUES
BETWEEN ABOUT 3N AND 7N ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.

THE LAST EXPERIMENTAL DROUGHT ASSESSMENT OF THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR
SHOWED THAT WOTJE AND UTIRIK OF THE NORTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS WERE
IN SHORT-TERM SEVERE DROUGHT (DROUGHT LEVEL 2 OF 4). SATELLITE
IMAGES DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS INDICATE ONLY SPOTTY TRADE-WIND
SHOWERS HAVE MOVED ACROSS THE AREA AND CONDITIONS LIKELY REMAIN
SEVERE OR HAVE WORSENED TO EXTREME.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

MARSHALL ISLANDS...

FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN ISLANDS...
THE ATMOSPHERE NORTHWARD FROM THE MARSHALL ISLANDS TO WAKE ISLAND
CONTINUES TO BE VERY DRY...AND SEVERE OR EXTREME DROUGHT IS ALREADY
AFFECTING WOTJE AND UTIRIK AND LIKELY OTHER NORTHERN AND THE WESTERN
ATOLLS. THE FAR NORTHERN MARSHALLS WILL REMAIN DRY IN THE COMING
WEEKS AND ISLANDS ALONG AND NORTH OF 8N SUCH AS WOTJE...UTIRIK...
RONGELAP...BIKINI AND ENEWETAK ATOLLS WILL SUFFER FROM CONTINUED
DROUGHT CONDITIONS. PERSISTENT DRY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO AFFECTING
MALOELAP...LIKIEP AND AILUK ATOLLS AND MEJIT ISLAND. ALSO...DRIER
WEATHER HAS DEVELOPED AT KWAJALEIN AND EBEYE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THESE AREAS.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...
COMPUTER MODELS AND DISCUSSIONS WITH CLIMATE SCIENTISTS INDICATE
THAT CURRENT ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS SHOULD LAST THROUGH JUNE...BUT
THERE IS NOW AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR EL NINO CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP
BY JULY OR AUGUST. ISLANDS NORTH OF ABOUT 8N ARE EXPERIENCING
DROUGHT AND CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL...AND THIS IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE DURING THE COMING WEEKS. WHILE WE HAVE NOT RECEIVED
REPORTS FROM UTIRIK...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE AREA HAS
BEEN VERY DRY.

SOME RAINFALL REPORTS IN INCHES ARE AS FOLLOWS...

                  NOV    DEC   JAN   FEB   MAR   MAR     MAR
                                          (1-22) NORMAL  % NORMAL

WOTJE             8.07   1.50  0.08  4.48   0.99  1.71    58
UTIRIK            9.46   1.99  0.63  MSG    MSG   1.50
MAJURO           17.36  11.77 17.65  7.59   5.29  5.26   101
KWAJALEIN/EBEYE  14.16  10.36  9.00  5.60   1.00  2.53    40

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...
A DRY ATMOSPHERIC PATTERN AND REDUCED CLOUD COVER WILL CAUSE ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE MARSHALL ISLANDS. EVAPORATION
CAUSED BY TRADE WINDS BLOWING ACROSS THE OCEAN SHOULD HELP OFFSET
AND MODERATE THE HIGHER TEMPERATURES.

THE MARSHALL ISLANDS...

ISLANDS NORTH OF MAJURO...
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MOVING ACROSS
WOTJE...UTIRIK...RONGELAP...BIKINI...ENEWETAK...AILUK...LIKIEP AND
MALOELAP ATOLLS RECENTLY. COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE A QUARTER TO A
HALF INCH OF RAINFALL FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS IN THESE AREAS. A RETURN
TO MUCH DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK WITH ONLY A HALF INCH TO
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 10 DAYS...AND THERE
WILL BE EVEN LOWER AMOUNTS FOR THE MORE NORTHERN ISLANDS. RAINFALL
FOR KWAJALEIN ATOLL WILL RANGE FROM A HALF INCH TO ONE INCH FOR THE
NEXT 10 DAYS AND MAJURO RAINFALL WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES...
BUT BOTH LOCATIONS COULD ALSO EXPERIENCE SOME EXTENDED DRY PERIODS
IN THE COMING WEEKS.

THE MARSHALL ISLANDS GOVERNMENT INDICATES THAT UTIRIK AND ENEWETAK
HAVE OPERATING REVERSE OSMOSIS (RO) SYSTEMS AND THAT SYSTEMS ARE
BEING PREPARED FOR AILUK...WOTJE AND MEJIT. EVEN WITH RO UNITS...
LOCAL VEGETATION AND FOOD SOURCES WILL SUFFER FROM THE DROUGHT.
LOCAL WELLS WILL BECOME MORE AND MORE SALTY. THE MARSHALL ISLANDS
GOVERNMENT HAS ISSUED GUIDANCE FOR WATER CONSERVATION AND GOOD
HYGIENE.

CATCHMENT EQUIPMENT SHOULD BE MAINTAINED SINCE PASSING SHOWERS COULD
AFFORD AN OPPORTUNITY TO CATCH RAIN WATER.

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...
THE NEXT ISSUANCE OF THIS DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT WILL BE
THURSDAY 6 APRIL 2017 OR SOONER IF NECESSARY. REMEMBER TO STAY TUNED
TO YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND/OR YOUR LOCAL DISASTER
COORDINATION OFFICE FOR THE LATEST WEATHER AND DROUGHT INFORMATION.

&&

RELATED WEB SITES...
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND
AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/...

NWS WFO GUAM...HTTP://WWW.PRH.NOAA.GOV/GUAM/...UNDER MENU ITEM
CURRENT CONDITIONS...HYDROLOGY...DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT.

THE PACIFIC ENSO APPLICATIONS CLIMATE CENTER...
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PEAC/

NOAA CORAL REEF WATCH BLEACHING...

CORAL REEF BLEACHING WATCH AND WARNING AREAS ARE IN EFFECT MAINLY
FOR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FEDERATED STATES OF MICRONESIA. FOR MORE
INFORMATION SEE THE NOAA/NESDIS WEBSITE AT
HTTP://CORALREEFWATCH.NOAA.GOV/SATELLITE/BAA.PHP

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...
WE ACKNOWLEDGE OUR PARTNERS AT THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...THE
PACIFIC ENSO APPLICATIONS CLIMATE CENTER...INTERNATIONAL RESEARCH
INSTITUTE FOR CLIMATE AND SOCIETY...UNIVERSITY OF GUAM...UNIVERSITY
OF HAWAII...HONOLULU FORECAST OFFICE...THE WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AT
MAJURO...THE USAID SUBREGIONAL OFFICES...THE NOAA/NESDIS CORAL REEF
WATCH PROGRAM AND RICHARD HEIM AT THE NOAA NATIONAL CENTERS FOR
ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS MAY BE ADDRESSED TO THE FOLLOWING...

WFO TIYAN GUAM
3232 HUENEME RD
BARRIGADA GU 96913
PHONE: 671-472-0946
W-GUM.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV (LOWER CASE LETTERS)

SIMPSON

$$



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.