Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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AXUS74 KOHX 021515
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DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
915 AM CDT FRI DEC 2 2016

...AS OF NOVEMBER 29TH...SEVERE DROUGHT IS IN PLACE ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE WITH EXTREME DROUGHT
CONDITIONS IN PLACE ELSEWHERE...

SYNOPSIS:

THE DROUGHT MONITOR...FOR TUESDAY NOVEMBER 29 2016...INDICATES
SEVERE DROUGHT (D2) CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE...AND EXTREME (D3) DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF MIDDLE TN. THERE IS STILL A SMALL DEGREE OF EXCEPTIONAL
(D4) DROUGHT ACROSS CUMBERLAND COUNTY.

NOTE THAT THE MIDDLE TENNESSEE AREA DID RECEIVE SOME MUCH NEEDED
RAINFALL ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF THIS PAST WEEK. THEREFORE...THE
CURRENT DROUGHT MONITOR MAY NOT REFLECT THE DROUGHT RELIEF THAT HAS
APPARENTLY OCCURRED. SOME RAINFALL TOTALS OVER ROUGHLY THE LAST 10
DAYS INCLUDE...

MONTEREY 2N      5.05"
MORRISON         4.95"
MCMINNVILLE      4.75"
GREAT FALLS DAM  4.61"
BIG LICK         4.57"
FALL CREEK FALLS 4.42"
NORMANDY DAM     4.29"
MANCHESTER       4.25"
CRAB ORCHARD     4.06"
WARTRACE         3.93"
PULASKI          3.80"
WOODBURY         3.77"
LEWISBURG        3.74"
LIVINGSTON       3.48"
BYRDSTOWN        3.47"
MONTEREY         3.45"
SMITHVILLE       3.40"

IMPACTS:

MOST OF THE IMPACTS SO FAR HAVE BEEN LIMITED TO AGRICULTURE IN THE
PLATEAU REGION...HOWEVER THE GROWING SEASON HAS ENDED AND IMPACTS
ARE LIMITED TO WATER SUPPLY AND QUALITY...AS WELL AS FIRE WEATHER.

SOME OF THE SMALLER WATER UTILITY DISTRICTS ARE EXPERIENCING ISSUES
WITH THEIR NORMAL WATER SUPPLY AND HAVE ASKED FOR VOLUNTARY WATER
CONSERVATION.

FIRE WEATHER IMPACTS:

THE RECENT RAINFALL WILL ACT TO INCREASE FUEL MOISTURE
LEVELS...WHICH WILL DECREASE THE LIKELIHOOD OF FIRE DEVELOPMENT.
FURTHERMORE...THE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO BE CHANGING WITH THE
DRIER FALL PATTERN NOW MORPHING INTO A MOIST WINTERTIME REGIME
WHEREBY THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM BECOMES MORE ACTIVE.
HENCE...GULF SYSTEMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD MORE
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL TO THE AREA...BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND.

CLIMATE SUMMARY:

PRECIPITATION TOTALS ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE FOR THE MONTH OF
NOVEMBER...GENERALLY AVERAGED BETWEEN 2 AND 5 INCHES OF RAINFALL.
HOWEVER...MOST OF THE RAINFALL OCCURRED AT THE VERY END OF THE
MONTH.

TEMPERATURES AVERAGED AROUND 3 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER.

HYDROLOGICAL SUMMARY:

STREAMFLOWS IN THE DUCK RIVER BASIN...THE STONES RIVER BASIN...THE
CANEY FORK RIVER BASIN...AND OTHER RIVER BASINS IN THE SOUTH AND
EASTERN PARTS OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE ARE RUNNING LOW...WITH FLOWS
RANGING FROM BELOW THE 10TH PERCENTILE TO THE 10TH TO 25TH
PERCENTILE.

TEMPERATURE/PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK:

THE 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK DOES INDICATE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

THE 3 MONTH OUTLOOK FOR DECEMBER...JANUARY AND FEBRUARY CALLS FOR A
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN AVERAGE CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...AND EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE...BELOW...OR NORMAL
PRECIPITATION.

GIVEN THE RECENT OCCURRENCE OF APPRECIABLE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS
THE AREA...AND MORE OF A WINTERTIME PATTERN EXPECTED...DROUGHT
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BECOME LESS SEVERE IN THE WEEKS AHEAD.

&&

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