National Weather Service Text Product Display

Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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NMC001>061-312359-
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
800 PM MST TUE MAY 7 2013

WATER SUPPLY FORECAST NEWS RELEASE FOR NEW MEXICO

THIS IS A COORDINATED RELEASE BETWEEN THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
AND NATURAL RESOURCES CONSERVATION SERVICE.

ONLY TWO STORMS IMPACTED NEW MEXICO IN APRIL 2013 AND THEY WERE ON
THE 8TH INTO THE 10TH AND 17TH INTO 18TH. THERE WAS NOT ENOUGH SNOW
FROM EITHER STORM TO KEEP THE SNOWPACK LEVELS FROM CONTINUING TO
PLUMMET. THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS BASIN SNOWPACKS WERE AROUND 35 TO 40
PERCENT OF NORMAL WHILE ALL REMAINING BASIN SNOWPACKS WERE EITHER
MEAGER OR NON EXISTENT AS OF MAY 1 2013. THIS IS THE THIRD YEAR IN
A ROW WITH DISAPPOINTING OVERALL NEW MEXICO MOUNTAIN SPRING
SNOWPACK.

PRECIPITATION ACROSS NEW MEXICO DURING APRIL 2013 WAS MOSTLY BELOW
TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL. THE EXCEPTION WAS NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION
OVER THE NORTHWEST. WATER YEAR 2013 PRECIPITATION...OCTOBER 2012
THROUGH APRIL 2013...REMAINS BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ACROSS
VIRTUALLY ALL OF NEW MEXICO.

FORECAST INFLOWS FOR THE RIO GRANDE INCLUDE 24 PERCENT OF NORMAL
INTO COCHITI LAKE AND MINUS 8 PERCENT AT ELEPHANT BUTTE LAKE. OTHER
RIO GRANDE BASIN RESERVOIR FORECAST INFLOWS RANGE FROM 29 PERCENT OF
NORMAL AT EL VADO RESERVOIR WHILE SANTA ROSA LAKE IS EXPECTED TO
ONLY BE 11 PERCENT OF NORMAL AND IN THE SAN JUAN BASIN...NAVAJO
RESERVOIR IS EXPECTING 44 PERCENT OF NORMAL INFLOW.

SURVEYS BY THE U.S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURES NATURAL RESOURCES
CONSERVATION SERVICE INDICATE THAT SNOWPACK WATER CONTENT IN THE
RIO GRANDE BASIN AS OF MAY 1 WAS 36 PERCENT OF NORMAL AND 180
PERCENT OF ONE YEAR AGO. IN THE SAN JUAN BASIN THE SNOWPACK WATER
CONTENT WAS 41 PERCENT OF NORMAL AND 157 PERCENT OF THE TOTAL OF
MAY 1 2012.

ENSO...EL NINO SOUTHERN OSCILLATION...NEUTRAL CONDITIONS IN THE
EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THE SUMMER OF
2013...OFFERING SCANT HOPE FOR WETTER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ACROSS
NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS SPRING. THE OUTLOOK FOR THE
SUMMER MONSOON SEASON IS TRENDING TOWARD NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL
STATEWIDE PRECIPITATION.

IN THE RIO GRANDE BASIN...STORAGE IS A MERE 13 PERCENT OF THE 30
YEAR AVERAGE AND 60 PERCENT OF THE STORAGE LEVELS FROM ONE YEAR AGO.
IN THE SAN JUAN BASIN...NAVAJO RESERVOIR STORAGE IS 55 PERCENT OF
THE 30 YEAR NORMAL AND 69 PERCENT OF THE STORAGE OF ONE YEAR AGO.

THIS WATER SUPPLY FORECAST REFLECTS CONDITIONS AS OF MAY 1 2013 AND
ASSUMES NEAR NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE REST
OF THE SPRING.

         SNOTEL DATA
                                  MAY 1 2013   1981 TO 2010 MEDIAN
                                 WATER CONTENT    WATER CONTENT
SNOTEL SITE...                      INCHES           INCHES
CHAMITA                               0.0              0.0
RED RIVER                             0.0              0.0
CUMBRES TRESTLE                      10.2             24.6
WOLF CREEK SUMMIT                    20.6             35.1

$$

CHJ
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
