Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1129 AM EST Thu Jan 19 2017

...Near to slightly above normal flood risk through February 2...

Normal flood potential means at least some minor flooding is
possible. Above normal flood potential means more widespread
flooding is possible with some points possibly reaching moderate
or major flood levels.

This is a biweekly flood outlook issued by local NWS offices in
winter and early spring to summarize basin conditions and to
assess the potential for flooding. The outlooks are based on
current and forecast hydrometeorological conditions.

The factors considered when determining flood potential include
current streamflow and reservoir levels compared to normal for
the period, water equivalent in any snow pack, soil moisture
and expected precipitation.

...SNOW COVER AND SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT...
There was no snow pack across any of the area.

...STREAMFLOW...
Streamflow along the Ohio River itself is running above normal for
mid January, as is the streamflow along most tributaries,
including much of the Great and Little Miami, Licking and Scioto
basins. While rivers are receding at the time of this issuance,
they still remained above normal.

...ICE...
Little to no icing is occurring on area rivers.

...SOIL MOISTURE...
Soil moisture levels were near to slightly above normal, with
recent frequent light rainfall events.

...RESERVOIR CAPACITY...
Area reservoirs were at or just slightly above winter flood
control pool levels, so optimum designed flood mitigation from
reservoirs is in effect. The exception to this was in the Mill
Creek and portions of the Little Miami basins, though releases are
currently occurring so efforts are ongoing to bring pool levels to
optimum storage.

...WEATHER TRENDS AND PRECIPITATION...
A more active precipitation pattern will set up for the first few
days of the outlook period, with the Indiana and Kentucky
tributaries expecting to experience the most precipitation. So the
Licking, Whitewater and Great Miami basins may see rises
approaching action levels. A clear flood-producing rainfall
signature is not apparant at this time, however, but rises are
expected and minor flooding cannot be ruled out.

For the second week of the outlook period, the NOAA Climate
Prediction Center is projecting near normal temperatures and near
normal precipitation for the mid Ohio Valley. Climatological Normal
precipitation for this period is approximately 0.65 inch through
the 7 day period.

Real time river information and forecasts for specific locations
along rivers across Central and Southern Ohio...Northern Kentucky
and Southeast Indiana can be found at:
water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=iln

$$



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