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Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

000
FGUS74 KJAN 092138
ESFJAN
ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
110000-

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
430 PM CDT TUE APR 09 2013


...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

...FLASH FLOODING AND MINOR TO MODERATE RIVER FLOODING IS POSSIBLE...


WARM...MOIST AIR IS STREAMING INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF A DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES. A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE SLOW MOVING FRONT WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL GRADUALLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND INTO THURSDAY. THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL NOT MOVE OUT OF
THE COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA) UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING. RAINFALL FROM
3.00 TO 5.00 INCHES WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.

SOILS REMAIN FAIRLY SATURATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION EVEN WITH
ACTIVE VEGETATION. THE DRIEST SOILS ARE CURRENTLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS. DUE TO THE EXPECTED SLOW
MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...FLASH FLOODING AND MINOR TO MODERATE RIVER
FLOODING CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS ANY PORTION OF THE CWA.

THIS WEATHER SYSTEM HAS PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THERE
IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH THE PREDICTED RAINFALL
AMOUNTS AND THE LOCATION OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL. THOSE LIVING IN FLASH
FLOOD PRONE AREAS AND AREAS AFFECTED BY RIVER FLOODING NEED TO KEEP
ABREAST OF THIS POTENTIAL FLOOD RISK. A FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO BE
CONSIDERED AT A LATER TIME ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

AS A HEADS UP...FOR THOSE LIVING ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...THIS
SYSTEM COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEYS AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS. THIS EVENT AND FUTURE RAINFALL EVENTS AND
SPRING MELT OF SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ABOVE MINNEAPOLIS ON THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER NEEDS TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY. RIVER FLOODING COULD
BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS MONTH AND INTO MAY ALONG THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

$$
MVP