Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
600 AM EST THU MAR 3 2016

...SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND
NORTHEAST FLORIDA...

...ABOVE NORMAL POTENTIAL FOR RIVER FLOODING THIS SPRING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...

...NEAR NORMAL POTENTIAL FOR RIVER FLOODING THIS SPRING ACROSS
NORTHEAST FLORIDA...

...EXISTING CONDITIONS...

IN THE ALTAMAHA...SATILLA AND ALAPAHA BASINS...

RAINFALL SINCE OCTOBER 1ST 2015 ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA HAS
BEEN ABOVE NORMAL WITH RAINFALL SURPLUSES OF 2 TO 6 INCHES AND THIS
HAS LED TO MULTIPLE FLOOD EVENTS ALREADY THIS PAST WINTER. STREAM
FLOWS REMAIN NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

IN THE UPPER SUWANNEE AND ST. MARYS BASINS...

RAINFALL OVER THE LAST FEW MONTHS HAS BEEN GENERALLY BEEN NORMAL TO
BELOW NORMAL WITH RAINFALL DEFICITS OF UP TO 2 TO 4 INCHES. THIS HAS
LED TO NORMAL STREAM FLOWS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND A NORMAL RISK
OF RIVER FLOODING EXISTS THIS SPRING.

IN THE SANTA FE BASIN...

RAINFALL OVER THE LAST FEW MONTHS HAS GENERALLY BEEN BELOW NORMAL
WITH RAINFALL DEFICITS UP TO 2 TO 4 INCHES BELOW NORMAL AND THIS HAS
KEPT CURRENT STREAM FLOWS NEAR NORMAL. ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING WILL
LIKELY DEPEND ON HOW HIGH THE SUWANNEE BASIN WOULD GET TO CREATE
BACKWATER PROBLEMS IN THE LOWER PORTIONS OF THE SANTA FE BASIN.

IN THE BLACK CREEK BASIN...

RAINFALL OVER THE LAST FEW MONTHS HAS GENERALLY BEEN NORMAL TO BELOW
NORMAL WITH RAINFALL DEFICITS UP TO 2 TO 4 INCHES BELOW NORMAL AND
THIS HAS KEPT CURRENT STREAM FLOWS NEAR NORMAL.

...LONG TERM PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK...

THE ONE MONTH PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FOR MARCH INDICATES A GREATER
THAN 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION. THE LONGER
RANGE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FEATURES CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE MONTHS OF APRIL AND MAY. THE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TYPICALLY DECREASES AFTER EARLY APRIL AS THE
REGION TRANSITIONS INTO MORE OF A DRIER PATTERN AS INFLUENCES FROM
FRONTAL SYSTEMS DIMINISH.

...SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK SUMMARY...

TAKING INTO ACCOUNT LONG TERM ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES FOR
PRECIPITATION...RECENT RAINFALL AND CURRENT STREAM FLOWS...THERE IS
AN ABOVE NORMAL POTENTIAL FOR RIVER FLOODING THIS SPRING. THIS RISK
IS MAXIMIZED ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...WHICH INCLUDES THE
ALTAMAHA...SATILLA AND ALAPAHA BASINS. IN THESE SPECIFIC
BASINS...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A HIGH IMPACT BASIN-WIDE FLOOD EVENT
THIS SPRING SHOULD HEAVIER THAN NORMAL RAINFALL OCCUR...AS STORAGE
CAPACITY IN THE HEADWATER PORTION OF THESE BASINS IS ESPECIALLY LOW.

SHOULD NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL SPRING RAINFALL AMOUNTS MATERIALIZE
THE CONTINUED WET CONDITIONS WILL KEEP AN INCREASED FLOOD RISK FOR
THESE RIVER BASINS MOVING INTO HURRICANE SEASON IN JUNE.

ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA...WHICH INCLUDES THE SUWANNEE...SANTA
FE...ST. MARYS AND BLACK CREEK BASINS THE DRIER THAN NORMAL RAINFALL
OVER THE WINTER WILL LEAD TO NEAR NORMAL FLOOD RISK THIS SPRING. ANY
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING WILL DEPEND ON HEAVIER THAN NORMAL RAINFALL
THAT WOULD BE POSSIBLE DURING THE SPRING MONTHS.

&&

$$

HESS



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