Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1015 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014

...Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook Number 2...

This outlook is for the NWS Paducah service area. It covers the time
period for late February through late May. It includes the mid-
Mississippi and lower Ohio Rivers and their tributaries for southwest
Indiana...southern Illinois...west Kentucky and southeast Missouri.

...Flood Outlook Highlights...

Flood potential remains average or near normal for this time of year.
Minor flooding is expected. Flooding in this region occurs mainly
due to conditions of ground moisture...river flows...and expected
precipitation. Ice jams are rarely a factor in flooding in this part
of the country. Most flood events in this region are due to heavy
spring rains.

...Current Conditions...

Snow...Frost and Soil Conditions...A warmup last week caused a lot
of the snow in the upper parts of the Mississippi and Ohio River
Valleys to melt. A storm earlier this week produced minor additional
amounts upstream but left the local area with a broad swath of 2 to
4 inches of snow and sleet with isolated higher amounts from the
Missouri bootheel to Hopkinsville.

Soil moisture in the Mississippi Valley is below normal for this
time of year while near or slightly above normal in the Ohio Valley.
Reservoir levels are near normal.

In the upper parts of the Mississippi River basin there is still 6
to 24 inches of snow with a water equivalent of 1 to 4 inches. In the
upper parts of the Ohio River basin there is generally only a few
of inches of snow with a water equivalent of 1 to 2 inches.

Streamflow conditions are near to below normal across most of the
area with the exception of west Kentucky where rivers are running at
or slightly above seasonal normals.

Seasonally, winter was cold with precipitation totals with an inch
or two of normal. Average temperatures from December through
February were 3 to 5 degrees below normal. Precipitation was more
variable ranging from 2 inches below to a little over one inch above
normal in most locations. Snowfall has been a little above normal,
especially when compared to recent years.

...Probabilistic Outlooks...

In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.

CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.

HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.

When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is
less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.


...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding...
                    Valid Period:  3/10/2014 - 6/8/2014

                                       :    Current and Historical
                                       :     Chances of Exceeding
                                       :       Flood Categories
                                       :      as a Percentage (%)
                      Categorical      :
                   Flood Stages (FT)   :   Minor    Moderate   Major
Location           Minor   Mod   Major :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------           -----  -----  ----- : ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
:Ohio River
Evansville          42.0   48.0   52.0 :  32   26   <5   <5   <5   <5
Golconda            40.0   50.0   55.0 :  47   44    6   <5   <5   <5
Mount Vernon        35.0   45.0   52.0 :  73   74    8    5   <5   <5
Newburgh Dam        38.0   48.0   56.0 :  82   80    5   <5   <5   <5
Owensboro           40.0   45.0   49.0 :  40   33    7   <5   <5   <5
Shawneetown         33.0   43.0   53.0 :  85   86   41   36   <5   <5
J.T. Myers Dam      37.0   50.0   60.0 :  78   77    7   <5   <5   <5
:Wabash River
New Harmony         15.0   20.0   23.0 :  80   79   25   24   <5   <5
:Green River
Calhoun             23.0   26.0   32.0 :  38   58   26   37    6    6
Paradise           380.0  386.0  400.0 :  64  >95   31   45   18   23
:Little Wabash River
Carmi               27.0   32.0   35.0 :  63   62   36   36   21   19
:Patoka River
Princeton           18.0   20.0   22.0 :  58   59   40   42   22   22
:Skillet Fork River
Wayne City          15.0   17.0   20.0 :  42   42   34   34   21   20
:Big Muddy River
Plumfield           20.0   25.0   34.0 :  41   40   20   15   <5   <5
Murphysboro         22.0   28.0   36.0 :  66   61   32   30    9    6

Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet

In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.

...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...

                               Chance of Exceeding Stages
                                  at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period: 3/10/2014 - 6/8/2014
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Ohio River
Evansville           30.7   33.2   36.2   40.6   42.6   43.5   46.0
Golconda             34.5   34.9   37.1   39.6   44.5   47.4   51.1
Mount Vernon         29.8   31.9   34.8   39.2   42.1   43.5   47.4
Newburgh Dam         33.9   36.2   40.0   43.2   44.4   45.5   48.2
Owensboro            30.4   32.3   35.6   39.1   41.4   43.0   46.6
Shawneetown          31.0   31.7   36.4   41.1   46.6   49.1   52.7
J.T. Myers Dam       33.2   34.1   38.0   41.7   46.0   48.1   51.7
:Wabash River
New Harmony          10.9   12.5   16.3   17.9   20.0   21.0   21.6
:Green River
Calhoun              14.3   15.0   16.4   19.9   26.4   30.8   32.4
Paradise            371.9  373.9  378.3  382.2  387.5  393.1  395.2
:Little Wabash River
Carmi                17.8   19.8   25.0   29.2   34.5   36.3   37.5
:Patoka River
Princeton            11.7   12.6   15.7   19.2   21.4   24.8   24.9
:Skillet Fork River
Wayne City            8.0    8.4   10.4   13.0   19.4   21.7   24.1
:Big Muddy River
Plumfield            15.5   16.0   17.9   19.5   22.6   29.5   33.4
Murphysboro          17.0   18.2   21.0   24.3   29.1   35.6   39.7

In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the
valid time period.

...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities...

                            Chance of Falling Below Stages
                                 at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period: 3/10/2014 - 6/8/2014
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Big Muddy River
Plumfield             8.2    7.8    6.4    5.4    4.6    4.2    4.1
Murphysboro          11.8   10.4    8.4    6.4    5.2    4.8    4.8

These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data...including current conditions of the
river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of
probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning
decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part
of the National Weather Service`s advanced hydrologic prediction
service.

...Weather Outlooks...
More tranquil weather is expected in the short term with only slight
chances for rain in the coming week. Temperatures should moderate
allowing snow and ice to melt.

The 8 to 14 day outlook for March 13 through 19 is for below normal
temperatures and below normal precipitation. During this time,
normal average temperatures are in the middle to upper 40s and
rainfall during this time period is between three-quarters of an
inch and one inch.

The outlook for March is for climatological conditions for
temperatures and precipitation, meaning equal chances of above,
normal and below normal conditions. Normal precipitation for March is
between 4 and 4 1/2 inches.  The seasonal outlook for March through
May calls for normal temperatures and above normal precipitation.

...Additional Information...

This is the last spring flood and water resources outlook this
season. Visit our web site weather.gov/pah for more weather and
water information.

$$

ML








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