Extended Streamflow Guidance
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FGUS65 KSTR 091844
ESGCO

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY, UT


                      SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL
             FOR THE COLORADO RIVER BASIN WITHIN COLORADO

                         MARCH 9, 2017

The 2017 spring runoff flood potential due to snowmelt is higher than usual
at this time for the Gunnison and Dolores river basins and near normal for the
Yampa/White, Upper Colorado mainstem,and San Juan river basins. It should be
emphasized that snow typically accumulates into April, therefore conditions may
change before the runoff begins.

Currently, the following sites are forecast to have mean daily peak flows at or
above the flood flow at the given exceedance level:

East River at Almont         25%
Dolores River below Rico     10%
Elk River near Milner        10%
Yampa River at Deerlodge     10%
Colorado River near Dotsero  10%
Colorado River near Cameo    10%
Colorado River near CO-UT    10%

In genearal, average to above average peaks are expected across western Colorado
with highest flows, with respect to average, forecast in the Gunnison and Dolores
river basins. Keep in mind instantaneous peaks can be higher than mean daily
peaks, especially in headwater basins. Specific forecast procedures and flood
flow levels do not exist for all streams.

February precipitation was near normal across western Colorado but due to
extremely wet conditions in December and January, water year precipitation to
date (October through February) is much above average.  In fact, many SNOTEL
locations in the Gunnison and Dolores river basins have recorded their highest
December-February precipitation amounts on record.

March 1st snow water equivalent values remain much above median across western
Colorado.  The Gunnison and Dolores river basins were at 155 percent of median,
the San Juan at 150 percent of median, the Upper Colorado mainstem at 130
percent of median, and the Yampa/White basin at 115 percent of median. Most
SNOTEL sites have already exceeded normal peak snow water equivalent levels that
typically occur in April.


The current volume forecasts for the April through July runoff period are
generally above to much above average for the basins in western Colorado.
Highest forecasts, as a percent of average, are in the Gunnison and Dolores
basins which range between 120 and 150 percent of average.  The Yampa/White,
Upper Colorado mainstem and San Juan River Basin forecasts generally range
between 105 and 125 percent of average.

Although spring temperatures affect the pattern of snowmelt runoff and
consequently the magnitude of peak flows, peak flows also roughly correspond
to volumetric flows. It is also important to keep in mind that an extended
period of much above normal temperatures or heavy rainfall during the melt
period can cause or exacerbate flooding problems in any year.


A list of specific spring peak flow forecasts are available at:
http://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/rmap/peak/peaklist.php

A map of the current spring peak flow forecasts is available at:
http://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/lmap/lmap.php?interface=peak

MEAN DAILY PEAK FLOW FORECASTS IN CFS

LOCATION                   FLOOD     FCST   FORECAST FLOWS
                            FLOW     DATE      90%    75%    50%    25%    10%
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
YAMPA - STEAMBOAT SPRINGS   5930 2017-03-01   2000   2500   3000   3700   4800
ELK - MILNER, NR            5719 2017-03-01   2800   3400   4000   4800   6000
YAMPA - MAYBELL, NR        21241 2017-03-01   7500   9000  10000  12000  16000
LITTLE SNAKE - LILY, NR    14871 2017-03-01   3000   4000   5000   6000   8000
YAMPA - DEERLODGE PARK     20685 2017-03-01  10500  12500  14000  16500  23000
WHITE - MEEKER, NR          8886 2017-03-01   2000   2500   2800   3500   4300
SNAKE - MONTEZUMA, NR       2100 2017-03-01    300    400    500    600    750
TENMILE CK - FRISCO, N TE   1650 2017-03-01    500    600    770    900   1100
STRAIGHT CK - LASKEY GULC    410 2017-03-01     80    110    130    160    210
EAGLE - GYPSUM, BLO         6100 2017-03-01   2300   2600   3500   4500   6000
COLORADO - DOTSERO, NR     17000 2017-03-01   5800   6800   9500  14000  20000
CRYSTAL - REDSTONE, NR, A   3100 2017-03-01   1500   1700   2100   2400   2800
ROARING FORK - GLENWOOD S  17000 2017-03-01   4500   5100   6500   8500   9500
COLORADO - CAMEO, NR       26000 2017-03-01  11800  13800  18500  25000  35000
EAST - ALMONT               3180 2017-03-01   2100   2300   2700   3200   3800
NF GUNNISON - SOMERSET, N  14280 2017-03-01   2500   3000   3600   4100   5100
SURFACE CK - CEDAREDGE      1340 2017-03-01    160    190    250    300    410
GUNNISON - GRAND JUNCTION  19470 2017-03-01  14350  14350  14350  15000  16000
DOLORES - RICO, BLO         1750 2017-03-01    980   1200   1300   1600   1900
DOLORES - DOLORES           7130 2017-03-01   3200   3600   4200   4900   5300
SAN MIGUEL - PLACERVILLE,   3190 2017-03-01   1100   1200   1400   1600   2000
COLORADO - CO-UT STATE LI  46000 2017-03-01  25000  27000  33000  42000  55000
SAN JUAN - PAGOSA SPRINGS   5800 2017-03-01   2000   2200   2700   3200   3600
ANIMAS - DURANGO           10500 2017-03-01   4000   4300   5200   6000   6800
ANIMAS - FARMINGTON         9110 2017-03-01   4100   4400   5400   6500   7400
MANCOS - MANCOS, NR         1120 2017-03-01    350    450    520    580    780


CBRFC/Alcorn



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