Extended Streamflow Guidance
Issued by NWS

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095
FGUS63 KMSR 292129
ESGSRS

SOURIS RIVER BASIN
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
325 PM CST FRI JAN 29 2016

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.


:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                   VALID PERIOD: 01/31/2016 - 04/30/2016

                                    : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
                                    : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                    :       AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
                     CATEGORICAL    :
                  FLOOD STAGES (FT) :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION          MINOR  MOD  MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------          ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:Des Lacs River
DESN8          1651.0 1653.0 1654.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Souris River
SHWN8          1623.0 1625.0 1630.0    <5   11   <5   <5   <5   <5
FOXN8          1573.0 1576.0 1578.0     6   33   <5   13   <5   <5
MINN8          1562.0 1565.0 1570.0    <5   11   <5    6   <5   <5
MION8          1551.0 1553.0 1557.0    <5    5   <5   <5   <5   <5
LGNN8          1536.0 1538.0 1540.0     5   17   <5    5   <5   <5
SWRN8          1524.0 1526.0 1528.0    <5    7   <5   <5   <5   <5
VLVN8          1507.0 1512.0 1517.0    <5   15   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Wintering River
KLSN8          1509.0 1511.0 1512.0    <5    6   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Souris River
TOWN8          1454.0 1456.0 1458.0    14   52    6   21   <5   <5
BANN8          1440.0 1441.0 1443.0    13   49    7   31   <5   <5
:Willow Creek
WLCN8          1442.0 1446.0 1448.0    49   34   <5   10   <5   <5
:Souris River
WSTN8          1414.0 1418.0 1420.0    15   40   <5   20   <5   14

LEGEND
CS  = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS  = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT  = FEET


IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 0131 Z DH12 /DC1601292125/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF
:
:       Chance of Exceeding Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
:             Valid  Period: 01/31/2016 - 04/30/2016
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:Des Lacs River
DESN8    1639.8/ 1640.1/ 1640.5/ 1641.1/ 1641.9/ 1643.1/ 1650.7
:Souris River
SHWN8    1609.3/ 1609.5/ 1610.7/ 1613.0/ 1616.3/ 1619.5/ 1620.9
FOXN8    1568.9/ 1569.2/ 1569.8/ 1570.9/ 1571.0/ 1571.4/ 1573.8
MINN8    1552.0/ 1552.4/ 1552.9/ 1554.0/ 1554.2/ 1554.9/ 1561.8
MION8    1542.0/ 1542.3/ 1542.6/ 1543.1/ 1543.2/ 1543.5/ 1547.3
LGNN8    1523.0/ 1523.7/ 1524.6/ 1526.5/ 1527.0/ 1528.4/ 1536.1
SWRN8    1509.2/ 1509.8/ 1510.4/ 1512.0/ 1512.6/ 1514.5/ 1521.9
VLVN8    1492.6/ 1493.0/ 1493.3/ 1496.0/ 1496.7/ 1499.1/ 1506.7
:Wintering River
KLSN8    1504.1/ 1504.2/ 1504.3/ 1504.6/ 1505.0/ 1507.2/ 1508.0
:Souris River
TOWN8    1446.3/ 1446.3/ 1449.3/ 1452.1/ 1453.1/ 1454.6/ 1456.6
BANN8    1431.9/ 1431.9/ 1434.6/ 1437.4/ 1438.8/ 1440.4/ 1441.8
:Willow Creek
WLCN8    1437.0/ 1437.2/ 1437.6/ 1441.7/ 1443.9/ 1445.1/ 1445.9
:Souris River
WSTN8    1411.0/ 1411.1/ 1411.5/ 1412.6/ 1413.5/ 1414.7/ 1416.1
.END


IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 0131 Z DH12 /DC1601292125/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZNT/HGVFZN9/HGVFZNH
.B1 /HGVFZN5/HGVFZNG/HGVFZN1/HGVFZNF
:
:       Chance of Falling Below Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
:               Valid  Period: 01/31/2016 - 04/30/2016
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:Des Lacs River
DESN8    1638.8/ 1638.8/ 1638.8/ 1638.6/ 1638.6/ 1638.6/ 1638.6
:Souris River
SHWN8    1605.8/ 1605.7/ 1605.7/ 1605.7/ 1605.7/ 1605.7/ 1605.7
FOXN8    1566.5/ 1566.5/ 1566.5/ 1566.5/ 1566.5/ 1566.5/ 1566.5
MINN8    1551.1/ 1551.0/ 1551.0/ 1550.9/ 1550.9/ 1550.8/ 1550.6
MION8    1538.2/ 1538.1/ 1537.7/ 1537.4/ 1537.0/ 1536.7/ 1533.5
LGNN8    1519.9/ 1519.8/ 1519.8/ 1519.7/ 1519.7/ 1519.7/ 1519.7
SWRN8    1506.6/ 1506.6/ 1506.6/ 1506.5/ 1506.5/ 1506.5/ 1506.5
VLVN8    1490.2/ 1490.2/ 1490.2/ 1490.2/ 1490.2/ 1490.2/ 1490.2
:Wintering River
KLSN8    1502.8/ 1502.8/ 1502.8/ 1502.8/ 1502.8/ 1502.8/ 1502.8
:Souris River
TOWN8    1444.4/ 1444.4/ 1444.4/ 1444.4/ 1444.4/ 1444.4/ 1444.4
BANN8    1429.9/ 1429.9/ 1429.9/ 1429.9/ 1429.9/ 1429.9/ 1429.9
:Willow Creek
WLCN8    1435.7/ 1435.7/ 1435.7/ 1435.7/ 1435.7/ 1435.7/ 1435.7
:Souris River
WSTN8    1409.5/ 1409.5/ 1409.5/ 1409.2/ 1408.9/ 1408.7/ 1408.7
.END


:Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued near the end of
:the month throughout the year.

$$




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