Extended Streamflow Guidance
Issued by NWS Ohio RFC

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FGUS61 KTIR 142306
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SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OHIO RIVER FORECAST CENTER WILMINGTON OH
600 PM EST WED FEB 14, 2018

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS ABOVE NORMAL IN THE OHIO RIVER BASIN.

AN ABOVE NORMAL FLOOD POTENTIAL MEANS WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE ALONG WITH WATER LEVELS HAVING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS IN SOME
AREAS.

FOR THE LONG-RANGE RIVER OUTLOOKS AND THE PROBABLITY OF EXCEEDING
FLOOD STAGE OR THE CHANCES OF FLOODING RELATIVE TO NORMAL AT
SPECIFIC FORECAST POINTS DURING THE NEXT 90 DAYS...REFER TO
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OHRFC AND CLICK ON THE 90-DAY RIVER OUTLOOK ON THE
LEFT HAND SIDE OF THE PAGE. CLICK ON FLOOD CHC VS NORMAL TO VIEW THE
RISK OF FLOODING WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL.

FLOOD OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED BI-WEEKLY BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
DURING WINTER AND EARLY SPRING TO SUMMARIZE BASIN
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS AND TO ASSESS THE POTENTIAL FOR
WINTER/SPRING FLOODING. THE OUTLOOKS ARE BASED ON CURRENT AND
FORECAST CONDITIONS DURING THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.

IN ADDITION...A 90-DAY WATER RESOURCE OUTLOOK IS ISSUED MONTHLY.

FACTORS CONSIDERED IN ASSESSING FLOOD POTENTIAL ARE (1) ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS (2) PAST PRECIPITATION (3) RECENT STREAMFLOWS AND
RESERVOIR LEVELS (4) SOIL MOISTURE (5) WATER CONTENT OF THE SNOW
PACK (6) ICE CONDITIONS ON THE RIVERS AND (7) FUTURE PRECIPITATION.

ARCTIC OSCILLATION...NAO...PACIFIC/NORTH AMERICAN TELECONNECTION AND
ENSO ARE EACH GIVING CONFLICTING SIGNALS WITH RESPECT TO
PRECIPITATION...SO LITTLE CONFIDENCE PROVIDED HERE.

HOWEVER...MODELS ARE PROVIDING GUIDANCE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
FLOODING. BOTH SHORT RANGE AND MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE FORECASTING A
WET PERIOD FOR THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE NEXT 10 DAYS WITH SEVERAL
SIGNFICANT SYSTEMS IMPACTING THE OHIO RIVER BASIN. MODELS ARE NOT AS
WET AS PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT A MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS
FOR MOST OF THE 10 DAY PERIOD BEFORE DRIER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
RETURNS NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST RUN OF 10 DAYS. ALSO...HELPING
TO SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL IS THE PRESENCE OF A STUBBORN...
STRENGTHENING SOUTHEAST RIDGE. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE DOES NOT
BREAKDOWN UNTIL THE END OF THE MEDUIM RANGE FORECAST CYCLE.

GIVEN THE QUASI-STATIONARY PATTERN INDICATIVE OF PERSISTENT
RAINFALL...I FEEL THAT IT IS PRUDENT TO PLACE THE ENTIRE OHIO RIVER
BASIN IN AN ELEVATED FLOOD POTENTIAL.

$$
WHEELER



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