Extended Streamflow Prediction
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4
000
FGUS65 KSTR 041617
ESPAZ

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH

APRIL 4, 2017

ARIZONA WATER SUPPLY OUTLOOK - AS OF APRIL 1 2017:


Precipitation:

Seasonal October-March precipitation was 125 percent of average in
the Salt-Verde River Basin, 105 percent of average for the Gila Basin and
125 percent for the Little Colorado Basin. March precipitation was
40 percent of average in the Salt-Verde River Basin, 25 percent in the
Gila River Basin, and 40 percent of average in the Little Colorado Basin.

Streamflow:

March Streamflow was around 100 percent of median in the Salt-Verde,
80 percent in the Gila, and generally 165 percent in the Little Colorado.

April 1st Snow:

Basin snowpack conditions were near 10 percent of median in the
Salt-Verde River Basin, and in the Little Colorado River Basin. The upper
Gila was near 0 percent.

Soil Moisture:

Modeled soil moisture states improved during the water year up to
April 1st. March through May runoff volumes are primarily influenced by
the frequency and magnitude of winter rain events.

Climate Conditions:

Neutral climate conditions suggest chances for average precipitation.

Forecast Summary:

The April-May forecast volumes were between 10-63 percent of median in the
Little Colorado Basin, 50 to 64 percent of median in the Salt-Verde
Basin. In the Gila Basin, volumes were between 53 and 117 percent.


SPECIFIC SITE FORECASTS ARE AS FOLLOWS:

Afos message output for EGDD: /nvm1/users/tracy.cox/wsup/wy17/lc/lcapr.drv
Developed:                    Apr 1 2017

LOWER Colorado
                           Period     50%  %AVG    10%    30%    70%    90%    AVG
                           ------    ----  ----   ----   ----   ----   ----    ---
Little Colorado River
  Lyman Lk, abv, St. John  Apr-Jun    2.2    63    3.7    2.4    2.1    2.1    3.5
Zuni River
  Black Rock Res, abv      Apr-May   0.05    50   0.08   0.06   0.02   0.00   0.10
Chevelon Ck
  Winslow, nr, Wildcat Cy  Apr-May   0.17    10   0.99   0.22   0.16   0.15   1.70
Gila River
  Gila, nr                 Apr-May   19.3   117     28     21   19.1   19.0   16.5
  Virden, nr, Blue Ck, bl  Apr-May     24   114     32     27     22     21     21
San Francisco River
  Glenwood, nr             Apr-May    4.2    58    5.1    4.5    4.1    4.0    7.3
  Clifton                  Apr-May    9.2    53   17.0   12.3    9.1    9.0   17.3
Gila River
  Solomon, nr, Head Of Sa  Apr-May     34    87     45     38     32     31     39
  San Carlos Res, Coolidg  Apr-May   15.3    83     26     17   15.2   15.0   18.4
Salt River
  Roosevelt, nr            Apr-May     63    50     88     69     60     57    127
Tonto Ck
  Roosevelt, nr, Gun Ck,   Apr-May    3.2    54    5.0    3.5    3.1    3.0    5.9
Verde River
  Tangle Ck, blo, Horsesh  Apr-May     23    64     43     29     22     21     36

50% Most probable volume in 1000 acre-feet.
%AVG  Most probable volume in percent of the 1981-2010 average.
10% Volume that has a 10 percent chance of being exceeded.
30% Volume that has a 30 percent chance of being exceeded.
90% Volume that has a 90 percent chance of being exceeded.
70% Volume that has a 70 percent chance of being exceeded.
AVG   Average volume for the 1981-2010 period.

All forecast volumes reflect natural flow.  Actual observed flow may
be affected by upstream water management.


****************************************************************************

PRECIPITATION SUMMARY:

                       MARCH`17        SEASONAL
BASIN                 % Average       % Average

  Upper Gila             25              105
  Salt-Verde             40              125
  Little Colorado        40              125

***************************************************************************

SNOWPACK SUMMARY:

                      APRIL 1 2017
BASIN                  % Average

  Upper Gila               0
  San Francisco            0
  Salt-Verde              10
  Little Colorado         10


***************************************************************************

OBSERVED STREAM FLOW SUMMARY:

                       MARCH`17
BASIN                  % Median

  Gila                    80
  Salt-Verde             100
  Little Colorado        165

**************************************************************************

For additional forecast information refer to the Water Supply section of
the CBRFC web page at: www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/wsup/pub2/map/html/cpub.php

CBRFC

NNNN

$$



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.