Extended Streamflow Prediction
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000
FGUS65 KSTR 132056
ESPAZ

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH

February 13, 2018

ARIZONA WATER SUPPLY OUTLOOK - As of February 1 2018:


Precipitation:

Seasonal October-January precipitation was 15 percent of average in
the Salt-Verde River Basin, the Gila Basin and for the Little Colorado
Basin. January precipitation was 50 percent of average in the Salt-Verde
River Basin, 25 percent in the Gila River Basin, and 50 percent of
average in the Little Colorado Basin.

Streamflow:

January streamflow was near 40 percent of median on the Salt and Verde Rivers.
Streamflow was about 50 percent of median for January in the Gila Basin. In the
Little Colorado Basin, streamflow was near 45 percent of median.

Snow:

February 1st snowpack was 20 percent of average in the Salt-Verde Basin, near
25 percent of average in the headwaters of the Little Colorado Basin. Snowpack
conditions were near 15 percent of average in the upper Gila drainage.

Soil Moisture:

Modeled soil moisture states were much below average at the
beginning of the water year. January through May runoff volumes
are primarily influenced by the frequency and magnitude of winter
rain events.

Climate Condtions:

La Nina climate conditions suggest chances for below average precipitation
in Arizona.

Forecast Summary:

February-May streamflow volume forecasts are below median across Arizona.
The lowest forecast is in the Little Colorado River Basin for
zuni river above black rock reservoir. The dry January was consistent with
La Nina climate conditions that were forecast. Current Cliamte forecasts
suggest below average precipitation into the spring.


Afos message output for EGDD: /nvm1/users/tracy.cox/wsup/wy18/lc/lcfeb.drv
Developed:                    Feb 1 2018

LOWER Colorado
                           Period     50%  %MED    10%    30%    70%    90%    MED
                           ------    ----  ----   ----   ----   ----   ----    ---
Little Colorado River
  Lyman Lk, abv, St. John  Feb-Jun   1.49    23    2.7    2.0   1.26   1.06    6.6
Zuni River
  Black Rock Res, abv      Feb-May   0.03     8   0.22   0.10   0.01   0.00   0.38
Chevelon Ck
  Winslow, nr, Wildcat Cy  Feb-May   1.46    11    6.3    2.5   0.48   0.08   13.9
Gila River
  Gila, nr                 Feb-May   12.9    26     24     19   10.3    9.5     50
  Virden, nr, Blue Ck, bl  Feb-May   17.7    28     37     25   13.4   12.2     63
San Francisco River
  Glenwood, nr             Feb-May    5.8    32   14.1   11.0    3.3    2.9   18.2
  Clifton                  Feb-May   11.9    23     40     24    6.7    4.6     51
Gila River
  Solomon, nr, Head Of Sa  Feb-May     36    29     90     60     26     21    123
  San Carlos Res, Coolidg  Feb-May   15.9    20     72     42    8.0    7.1     81
Salt River
  Roosevelt, nr            Feb-May     69    24    140    104     53     34    285
Tonto Ck
  Roosevelt, nr, Gun Ck,   Feb-May    7.4    21     28     17   4.30   1.38     35
Verde River
  Tangle Ck, blo, Horsesh  Feb-May     64    47    170    102     47     36    136

50% Most probable volume in 1000 acre-feet.
%MED  Most probable volume in percent of the 1981-2010 median.
10% Volume that has a 10 percent chance of being exceeded.
30% Volume that has a 30 percent chance of being exceeded.
90% Volume that has a 90 percent chance of being exceeded.
70% Volume that has a 70 percent chance of being exceeded.
MED   median volume for the 1981-2010 period.

All forecast volumes reflect natural flow.  Actual observed flow may
be affected by upstream water management.

****************************************************************************

PRECIPITATION SUMMARY:

                      January `18      SEASONAL
BASIN                 % Average       % Average

  Upper Gila             25               15
  Salt-Verde             50               15
  Little Colorado        50               15

***************************************************************************

SNOWPACK SUMMARY:

                     February 1 2018
BASIN                  % Median

  Upper Gila               15
  San Francisco             5
  Salt-Verde               20
  Little Colorado          25

***************************************************************************

OBSERVED STREAM FLOW SUMMARY:

                      January `18
BASIN                  % Median

  Gila                    50
  Salt-Verde              40
  Little Colorado         45

**************************************************************************

For additional forecast information and graphical presentation material
refer to the Water Supply section of the CBRFC web page at:
www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/wsup/pub2/map/html/cpub.php

CBRFC

NNNN

$$



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