Flash Flood Guidance
Issued by NWS

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000
AWUS01 KWNH 250946
FFGMPD
MOZ000-KSZ000-251400-

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0489
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
545 AM EDT MON JUL 25 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/EASTERN KS...MO

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 250940Z - 251400Z

SUMMARY...HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THIS MORNING. SOME FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE SLOW CELL
MOTION AND INTENSE RAINFALL RATES.

DISCUSSION...CLUSTERS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED
IS NOTED IN A W/E AXIS FROM CENTRAL/EASTERN KS THROUGH MUCH OF
CENTRAL MO CURRENTLY. THE CONVECTION OVER KS IS GENERALLY BEING
FACILITATED BY THE EASTWARD EJECTION OF A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS WHICH IS CATCHING UP TO A COLD FRONT GRADUALLY
SETTLING SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA. OTHERWISE FARTHER EAST INTO
WESTERN AND CENTRAL MO...CONVECTION HAS BEEN TENDING TO FOCUS
ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WHILE INTERACTING WITH A VERY
MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS POOLED ALONG IT. SOME LARGER
SCALE ASCENT IS IN PLACE AS WELL...WITH FAVORABLE 250 MB
RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION JET DYNAMICS OVER THE REGION COURTESY OF AN
UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE UPPER MIDWEST.

SUFFICIENT JUXTAPOSITION OF THIS FORCING WITH THE FRONT AND
FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION GOING FOR A FEW
MORE HOURS ACROSS THE LOWER MO AND MID MS VALLEY REGION. PWATS AS
HIGH AS 2 INCHES OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR INTENSE
RAINFALL RATES OF AS MUCH AS 2.5 INCHES/HR UNDER THE STRONGER
CORES.

EXPECT ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AS MUCH AS 3 TO 4
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER AMOUNTS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
THROUGH MID-MORNING. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS.
CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN LATER THIS MORNING WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING THEREAFTER AS SUGGESTED BY A CONSENSUS OF THE HIRES
GUIDANCE.

ORRISON

...PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...GID...ICT...LSX...SGF...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...

LAT...LON   39769753 39589636 39349551 39269424 39209342
            39329203 39019128 38359102 37759156 37509253
            37449389 37539520 37649607 38119743 38809824
            39379858 39759838



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