Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS21 KWNS 190724
FWDDY1

DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0223 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF ERN NM INTO THE TX
PANHANDLE AND TX S PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
...MUCH OF ERN NM INTO THE TX PANHANDLE AND TX S PLAINS...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SRN ROCKIES/SRN HIGH PLAINS WILL NOT MOVE
MUCH TODAY. STRONG WLY FLOW THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE
OVER CNTRL KS WILL DEVELOP S/SE INTO OK DURING THE AFTERNOON. A
DRYLINE EXTENDING S/SW FROM THIS LOW WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...BUT STRONG HEATING AND DEEP BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING BEHIND THE DRYLINE WILL RESULT IN VERY DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE CRITICAL AREA. WLY WINDS NEAR 20 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER
GUSTS WILL BE JUXTAPOSED WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S AND RH VALUES
FROM 6-12 PERCENT. DRY FUELS AND ONGOING DROUGHT WILL COMBINE WITH
THESE CONDITIONS TO CREATE A CRITICAL FIRE RISK.

...SW NM INTO SW TX...
TO THE SOUTH OF THE CRITICAL...CONDITIONS WILL BE SLIGHTLY MORE
MARGINAL DUE TO LIGHTER WIND SPEEDS FROM 10-15 MPH. CRITICALLY LOW
RH VALUES ARE STILL EXPECTED...FROM 10-15 PERCENT.

...CA CENTRAL VALLEYS...
BREEZY NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE CENTRAL CA VALLEYS TODAY
AS SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT SHARPENS DUE TO BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE INTO
THE GREAT BASIN. SPEEDS FROM 10-20 MPH ARE EXPECTED.
ADDITIONALLY...WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND A DRY AIRMASS WILL
LEAD TO RH VALUES FALLING INTO THE 15-25 PERCENT RANGE. THIS COULD
LEAD TO AN ELEVATED THREAT WHERE FUELS ARE DRY.

..LEITMAN.. 05/19/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
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