Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FNUS53 KAPX 251901
FWFAPX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
301 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

...TRENDING WETTER INTO THE WEEKEND...

.DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS A QUICK MOVING
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND. A STRONGER SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE BY TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEKEND...BRINGING A
BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO WELL BELOW NORMAL READINGS FOR
MONDAY...WITH ONLY A SLOW MODERATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF NEXT WEEK.

MIZ016-017-019-021>023-260815-
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY
COUNTIES-
301 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 2000.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....59-64.
   24 HR TREND......14 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........91-96 PERCENT...EXCEPT 82-87 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.04-0.18 IN.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). ISOLATED
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 0800. SCATTERED SHOWERS.
                    SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....72-77...EXCEPT 63-68 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........69-74 PERCENT...EXCEPT 84-89 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......22 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (950).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 12 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.01-0.13 IN.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2000.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 60.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 6 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.01 IN.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). SCATTERED SHOWERS
                    AFTER 0800 UNTIL 1400. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
                    AFTER 0800. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AFTER 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....72-77...EXCEPT AROUND 70 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
MIN HUMIDITY........63-68 PERCENT...EXCEPT 73-78 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 10 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (270).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST AROUND 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHEAST AROUND 9 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.08-0.29 IN.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-260815-
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-
301 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....59-64.
   24 HR TREND......14 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........91-96 PERCENT...EXCEPT 79-84 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH
                    IN THE EVENING.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.07-0.24 IN.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). ISOLATED
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 0800. SCATTERED SHOWERS.
                    SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....75-80...EXCEPT 64-69 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........68-73 PERCENT...EXCEPT 81-86 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......27 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (890).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 9 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.05-0.18 IN.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2000.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....59-64.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......9 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (20).
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 6 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.01 IN.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). SCATTERED SHOWERS
                    AFTER 0800 UNTIL 1400. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
                    AFTER 0800. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AFTER 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....74-79...EXCEPT 64-69 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
MIN HUMIDITY........62-67 PERCENT...EXCEPT 76-81 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    EAST IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (270).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.08-0.22 IN.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-260815-
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-
301 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS
                    UNTIL 2000. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
                    THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 2000.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....59-64.
   24 HR TREND......18 DEGREES WARMER...EXCEPT 11 DEGREES WARMER
                    NEAR THE COAST.
MAX HUMIDITY........91-96 PERCENT...EXCEPT 82-87 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 4 PERCENT WETTER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 6 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.04-0.12 IN.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT) UNTIL 1200...THEN PARTLY
                    SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
                    AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 0800.
                    SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....72-77...EXCEPT 60-65 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........65-70 PERCENT...EXCEPT 87-92 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......18 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (900).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 9 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.04 IN.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2000.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....58-63.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH
                    IN THE EVENING.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 3 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AFTER 0800 UNTIL 1400. CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 0800. NUMEROUS SHOWERS
                    AFTER 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....71-76...EXCEPT 62-67 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........59-64 PERCENT...EXCEPT 78-83 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (340).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHWEST AROUND 9 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.19-0.30 IN.


$$

MIZ031>033-260815-
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-
301 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS
                    UNTIL 2000. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
                    THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 2000.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....59-64.
   24 HR TREND......15 DEGREES WARMER...EXCEPT 9 DEGREES WARMER
                    NEAR THE COAST.
MAX HUMIDITY........91-96 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (20).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 9 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.04-0.15 IN.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT) UNTIL 1200...THEN PARTLY
                    SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
                    ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 0800. SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....75-80...EXCEPT 67-72 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........66-71 PERCENT...EXCEPT 76-81 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......19 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (910).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 9 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.04 IN.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2000.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 60.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 3 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). SCATTERED SHOWERS
                    AFTER 0800 UNTIL 1400. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
                    AFTER 0800. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AFTER 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....75-80.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........57-62 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......11 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (520).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST
                    AROUND 12 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.21-0.29 IN.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-260815-
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-
301 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS
                    UNTIL 2000. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
                    THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....58-63.
   24 HR TREND......15 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........91-96 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (20).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.05-0.19 IN.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). ISOLATED
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 0800. SCATTERED RAIN
                    SHOWERS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....76-81.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
MIN HUMIDITY........65-70 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......24 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1190).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 6 MPH INCREASING TO WEST
                    AROUND 18 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.03-0.13 IN.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2000.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....59-64.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 6 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.01 IN.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). SCATTERED SHOWERS
                    AFTER 0800 UNTIL 1400. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
                    AFTER 0800. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AFTER 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....76-81.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
MIN HUMIDITY........56-61 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......10 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (650).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 3 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.20-0.29 IN.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. NORTH
WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER
50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID
50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID
50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID
70S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

MG





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