Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FNUS53 KAPX 051854
FWFAPX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
254 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

...ELEVATED FIRE DANGER FRIDAY...

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO NOSE IN FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY. ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION-FREE CONDITIONS AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE TREND PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY. ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S...RH`S AS LOW AS 25-30% (PERHAPS A FEW
LOCATIONS DROPPING BELOW 25%)...AND OCCASIONALLY GUSTY SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS APPROACHING 20 MPH ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF NRN MICHIGAN.

WINDS SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING POST COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF
RAIN.


MIZ016-017-019-021>023-060815-
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY
COUNTIES-
254 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (20-30 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....35-40.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........89-94 PERCENT...EXCEPT 77-82 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHWEST AROUND 3 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (5-15 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....71-76...EXCEPT 58-63 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......14 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........29-34 PERCENT...EXCEPT 45-50 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......11 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (290).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 3 TO 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (15-25 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS
                    LIKELY AFTER 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....45-50.
   24 HR TREND......10 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........86-91 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 7 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (20).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 6 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.06 IN.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS
                    LIKELY UNTIL 0800. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER
                    0800 UNTIL 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....59-64...EXCEPT 48-53 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......16 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........37-42 PERCENT...EXCEPT 52-57 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......8 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 24 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (750).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 15 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.05-0.11 IN.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-060815-
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-
254 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (15-25 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....34-39.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT...EXCEPT 84-89 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (5-15 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....70-75...EXCEPT AROUND 61 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......10 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........29-34 PERCENT...EXCEPT 51-56 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (210).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 3 TO 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....45-50.
   24 HR TREND......11 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........86-91 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......8 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
                    UP TO 16 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 6 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.04 IN.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (65-75 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 0800. RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AFTER
                    0800 UNTIL 1400...THEN CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....60-65...EXCEPT 49-54 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......10 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........38-43 PERCENT...EXCEPT 57-62 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......9 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH INCREASING TO NORTHWEST
                    AROUND 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS UP TO 30
                    MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (970).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 12 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    NORTHWEST AROUND 21 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........AROUND 0.11 IN.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-060815-
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-
254 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (20-30 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....34-39.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........91-96 PERCENT...EXCEPT 77-82 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 4 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH
                    AROUND 3 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....71-76...EXCEPT 48-53 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......15 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........30-35 PERCENT...EXCEPT 59-64 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......13 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 18 PERCENT DRIER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (350).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 6 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (10-20 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....44-49.
   24 HR TREND......10 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........86-91 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.07 IN.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....56-61...EXCEPT 43-48 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......16 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........38-43 PERCENT...EXCEPT 56-61 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......8 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 24 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (660).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 21 TO 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.08 IN.


$$

MIZ031>033-060815-
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-
254 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (20-30 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....33-38.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES COOLER...EXCEPT 1 DEGREE WARMER NEAR
                    THE COAST.
MAX HUMIDITY........91-96 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 4 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (0).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHWEST AROUND 3 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (5-15 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....71-76...EXCEPT 61-66 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......13 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........31-36 PERCENT...EXCEPT 45-50 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......8 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 18 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (350).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....46-51.
   24 HR TREND......13 DEGREES WARMER...EXCEPT 10 DEGREES WARMER
                    NEAR THE COAST.
MAX HUMIDITY........86-91 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......11 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 3 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.05 IN.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....57-62.
   24 HR TREND......14 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........36-41 PERCENT...EXCEPT 50-55 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 24 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (730).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 18 TO 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.10 IN.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-060815-
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-
254 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (20-30 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....34-39.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........93-98 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 3 TO 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (5-15 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....71-76.
   24 HR TREND......11 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........29-34 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 5 MPH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........6 OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (270).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 3 TO 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....45-50.
   24 HR TREND......11 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........84-89 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......9 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (20).
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 6 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.03 IN.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (65-75 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 0800. RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AFTER
                    0800 UNTIL 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....60-65.
   24 HR TREND......11 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........37-42 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......8 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    NORTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (920).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 12 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST
                    AROUND 21 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........AROUND 0.08 IN.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
60S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE MID
40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 60S. EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

MG


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