Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FNUS53 KAPX 201951
FWFAPX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for northern Lower Michigan
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
351 PM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017

...Record heat likely Friday and Saturday...

.DISCUSSION...A large upper level ridge of high pressure will
bring increasing heat and humidity to the region over the next
several days. A few record high temperatures are even likely
Friday and Saturday. Very warm temperatures are expected to
continue Sunday into early next week before a cool down toward the
middle and especially for the end of next week. There will be
a few chances for thunderstorms tonight through Thursday night,
though much of the time will be rain free.


MIZ016-017-019-021>023-210845-
Emmet...Cheboygan...Charlevoix...Antrim...Otsego and Montmorency
Counties-
351 PM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent) until 2400, then
                    mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). Chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms after 2400.
Min Temperature.....62-67.
   24 HR Trend......8 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (40).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 9 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.03-0.18 in.

.THURSDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). Patchy fog until
                    1200. Chance of thunderstorms until 1200.
                    chance of showers. slight chance of
                    thunderstorms after 1200.
Max Temperature.....80-85...except 69-74 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........64-69 percent...except 79-84 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged...except 11 percent wetter along the
                    coast.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Good (480).
Mixing Height.......4400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.02-0.18 in.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (45-55 percent). Chance of
                    showers until 2400.
Min Temperature.....64-69.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........95-100 percent.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (10).
Mixing Height.......300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 6 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.08 in.

.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent).
Max Temperature.....86-91...except 77-82 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......8 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........54-59 percent...except 67-72 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......11 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (670).
Mixing Height.......5200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 6 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-210845-
Presque Isle...Alpena...Alcona...Iosco and Arenac
Counties...including Eastern Huron NF-
351 PM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent) until 2400, then
                    mostly cloudy (45-55 percent). Chance of
                    showers and slight chance of thunderstorms
                    after 2400.
Min Temperature.....61-66.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (20).
Mixing Height.......300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 6 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.05 in.

.THURSDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent). Patchy fog until
                    1200. Chance of showers and slight chance of
                    thunderstorms.
Max Temperature.....81-86...except 70-75 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........61-66 percent...except 79-84 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......2 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Good (330).
Mixing Height.......2900 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.01-0.18 in.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (50-60 percent). Chance of
                    showers.
Min Temperature.....62-67.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........95-100 percent.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (20).
Mixing Height.......300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.08 in.

.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent). Chance of showers
                    until 1200.
Max Temperature.....86-91...except 74-79 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........55-60 percent...except 71-76 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......6 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Good (520).
Mixing Height.......4900 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-210845-
Leelanau...Benzie...Grand Traverse and Kalkaska
Counties...including the Sleeping Bear Dunes NL-
351 PM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent) until 2400, then
                    mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Patchy fog after
                    2400. Chance of showers and thunderstorms after
                    2400.
Min Temperature.....63-68.
   24 HR Trend......9 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent.
   24 HR Trend......1 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph in the evening
                    becoming light.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (30).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 9 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.03-0.23 in.

.THURSDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). Patchy fog until
                    1200. Chance of showers and thunderstorms until
                    1200. slight chance of showers and
                    thunderstorms after 1200.
Max Temperature.....81-86...except around 70 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree warmer...except 5 degrees cooler near
                    the coast.
Min Humidity........60-65 percent...except 81-86 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......8 percent wetter...except 18 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming southwest around 5 mph in
                    the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Good (470).
Mixing Height.......4100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.08 in.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (45-55 percent). Chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms until 2400.
Min Temperature.....65-70.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming south around 5 mph after
                    midnight.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (20).
Mixing Height.......300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 6 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.03 in.

.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent).
Max Temperature.....88-93...except 72-77 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......7 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........50-55 percent...except 74-79 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......11 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 16 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (650).
Mixing Height.......4500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 9 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ031>033-210845-
Manistee...Wexford and Missaukee Counties...Including the
northern quarter of Manistee NF-
351 PM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent) until 2400, then
                    mostly cloudy (55-65 percent). Patchy fog after
                    2400. Chance of showers and thunderstorms after
                    2400.
Min Temperature.....62-67.
   24 HR Trend......7 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph in the evening
                    becoming light.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (20).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 6 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.03-0.13 in.

.THURSDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent) until 1200, then
                    mostly sunny (45-55 percent). Patchy fog until
                    1200. Chance of showers and thunderstorms until
                    1200, then slight chance of showers and
                    thunderstorms.
Max Temperature.....80-85...except 72-77 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........61-66 percent...except 74-79 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......3 percent wetter...except 11 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (600).
Mixing Height.......4900 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.08 in.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent).
Min Temperature.....64-69.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent.
   24 HR Trend......1 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (20).
Mixing Height.......300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.02 in.

.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent).
Max Temperature.....86-91...except 78-83 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........52-57 percent...except 63-68 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......8 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (670).
Mixing Height.......4900 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 6 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-210845-
Crawford...Oscoda...Roscommon...Ogemaw and Gladwin
Counties...including Western Huron NF-
351 PM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (20-30 percent) until 2400, then
                    mostly cloudy (50-60 percent). Patchy fog after
                    2400. Chance of showers and slight chance of
                    thunderstorms after 2400.
Min Temperature.....60-65.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........95-100 percent.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph in the evening
                    becoming light.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (20).
Mixing Height.......300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 6 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.08 in.

.THURSDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Patchy fog until
                    1200. Chance of showers and slight chance of
                    thunderstorms.
Max Temperature.....82-87.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........59-64 percent.
   24 HR Trend......2 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Good (510).
Mixing Height.......4300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.03-0.20 in.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (50-60 percent) until 2400, then
                    partly cloudy (45-55 percent). Chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms until 2400.
Min Temperature.....62-67.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........95-100 percent.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph in the evening
                    becoming light.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (10).
Mixing Height.......300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.02-0.16 in.

.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent).
Max Temperature.....86-91.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........54-59 percent.
   24 HR Trend......6 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Good (570).
Mixing Height.......5400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE MID
80S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
80S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE
MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

AS



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