Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FNUS53 KAPX 222000
FWFAPX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
400 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

...ELEVATED FIRE DANGER THROUGH SATURDAY...

.DISCUSSION...ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONTINUES THROUGH THIS EVENING
DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND GUSTY WINDS.
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND WARM
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL ALL COMBINE TO LEAD TO MORE ELEVATED
FIRE DANGER AND EVEN CLOSE TO RED FLAG CONDITIONS IN THE
AFTERNOON. INCREASING MOISTURE SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK WILL RESULT
IN DECENT CHANCES FOR MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY.


MIZ016-017-019-021>023-230815-
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY
COUNTIES-
400 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLEAR (0-10 PERCENT). WIDESPREAD FROST AFTER
                    0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....29-34...EXCEPT 38-43 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........83-88 PERCENT...EXCEPT 67-72 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......8 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING
                    LIGHT. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (0).
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 9 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST
                    AROUND 3 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT). WIDESPREAD FROST UNTIL
                    0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....70-75...EXCEPT AROUND 61 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......17 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........22-27 PERCENT...EXCEPT 37-42 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT UNCHANGED ALONG THE
                    COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1180).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....49-54.
   24 HR TREND......25 DEGREES WARMER...EXCEPT 19 DEGREES WARMER
                    NEAR THE COAST.
MAX HUMIDITY........72-77 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......9 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (20).
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 9 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....69-74...EXCEPT 57-62 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........48-53 PERCENT...EXCEPT 61-66 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......26 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (970).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 6 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 18
                    MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.03 IN.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-230815-
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-
400 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLEAR (0-10 PERCENT). WIDESPREAD FROST AFTER
                    0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....27-32...EXCEPT 35-40 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........85-90 PERCENT...EXCEPT 70-75 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......30 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 19 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 3 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT). WIDESPREAD FROST UNTIL
                    0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....71-76...EXCEPT 61-66 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......17 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........21-26 PERCENT...EXCEPT 36-41 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 1 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1280).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....50-55.
   24 HR TREND......27 DEGREES WARMER...EXCEPT 22 DEGREES WARMER
                    NEAR THE COAST.
MAX HUMIDITY........71-76 PERCENT...EXCEPT 59-64 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......19 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (20).
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 9 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....69-74...EXCEPT 58-63 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........46-51 PERCENT...EXCEPT 61-66 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......27 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (890).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.04 IN.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-230815-
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-
400 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLEAR (0-5 PERCENT). WIDESPREAD FROST AFTER
                    0200 UNTIL 0500...THEN PATCHY FROST.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....30-35...EXCEPT 38-43 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........78-83 PERCENT...EXCEPT 65-70 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 3 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING
                    LIGHT. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (0).
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT). PATCHY FROST UNTIL 0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....70-75...EXCEPT 52-57 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......15 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........22-27 PERCENT...EXCEPT 47-52 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 2 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 24 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1030).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....49-54.
   24 HR TREND......20 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........76-81 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 5 PERCENT WETTER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 24 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....68-73...EXCEPT 53-58 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........52-57 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......28 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 16 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (640).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 9 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.05 IN.


$$

MIZ031>033-230815-
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-
400 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLEAR (0-5 PERCENT). WIDESPREAD FROST AFTER
                    0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....30-35.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER...EXCEPT 3 DEGREES WARMER NEAR
                    THE COAST.
MAX HUMIDITY........82-87 PERCENT...EXCEPT 70-75 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......24 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 13 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (0).
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH
                    AROUND 3 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT). WIDESPREAD FROST UNTIL
                    0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....69-74...EXCEPT 60-65 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......12 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........22-27 PERCENT...EXCEPT 36-41 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1110).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 9 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....50-55.
   24 HR TREND......24 DEGREES WARMER...EXCEPT 18 DEGREES WARMER
                    NEAR THE COAST.
MAX HUMIDITY........78-83 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 6 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....69-74...EXCEPT 61-66 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........52-57 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......32 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 23 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (620).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 9 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.08 IN.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-230815-
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-
400 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLEAR (0-5 PERCENT). WIDESPREAD FROST AFTER
                    0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....28-33.
   24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........87-92 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......25 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (0).
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 3 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT). WIDESPREAD FROST UNTIL
                    0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....71-76.
   24 HR TREND......14 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........21-26 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1220).
MIXING HEIGHT.......7100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....50-55.
   24 HR TREND......25 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........75-80 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......11 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....69-74.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........48-53 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......29 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (900).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.06 IN.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.MEMORIAL DAY...SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS AROUND 60. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. SOUTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID
50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID
50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

AJS



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