Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FNUS53 KGRR 210809
FWFGRR

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for Southwest Lower Michigan
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
409 AM EDT Fri Jul 21 2017

...Very warm and humid...

.DISCUSSION...
Low pressure and a warm front will bring very humid conditions
this weekend. Showers and thunderstorms are likely tonight into
Saturday with a risk of locally heavy rainfall and perhaps even
a damaging wind threat. Rain chances will decrease Sunday and
Sunday night, with a stretch of quiet and less humid weather
expected for the first half of next week.

MIZ037>039-043>045-212015-
Mason-Lake-Osceola-Oceana-Newaygo-Mecosta-
Including the cities of Ludington, Baldwin, Reed City, Hart,
Fremont, and Big Rapids
409 AM EDT Fri Jul 21 2017

.TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent).
Max temperature.....85-90.
   24 hr trend......2 degrees warmer.
Min humidity........50-55 percent near Lake Michigan and 37-42
                    percent Inland.
   24 hr trend......18 percent drier near Lake Michigan and 16
                    percent drier Inland.
20-foot winds.......Light winds becoming west around 6 mph in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......Near Lake Michigan, 2000-2500 ft AGL.
Mixing height.......Inland, 4600-5100 ft AGL increasing to
                    6600-7100 ft AGL in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....West around 5 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....400-800 (good to excellent).
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (55-65 percent) until 2200, then
                    mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms until 0200, then
                    showers and thunderstorms.
Chance of pcpn......80 percent.
Min temperature.....64-69.
   24 hr trend......4 degrees warmer.
Max humidity........95-100 percent.
   24 hr trend......Unchanged.
20-foot winds.......Light winds becoming southeast around 7 mph
                    overnight.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......200-700 ft AGL near Lake Michigan and 2000-2500
                    ft AGL inland.
Transport winds.....West around 5 mph shifting to the southeast
                    overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....100 (poor).
Pcpn Amount.........0.35-0.98 in.

.SATURDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Showers and
                    thunderstorms likely until 1400, then a chance
                    of showers and thunderstorms.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
Max temperature.....79-84.
   24 hr trend......7 degrees cooler.
Min humidity........65-70 percent.
   24 hr trend......30 percent wetter.
20-foot winds.......South winds around 8 mph shifting to the
                    northwest in the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......2400-2900 ft AGL near Lake Michigan and
                    3700-4200 ft AGL inland.
Transport winds.....South around 10 mph shifting to the northwest
                    in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....200 (fair).
Pcpn Amount.........0.24-0.45 in.


$$

MIZ040-046-212015-
Clare-Isabella-
Including the cities of Clare and Mount Pleasant
409 AM EDT Fri Jul 21 2017

.TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 89.
   24 hr trend......Unchanged.
Min humidity........34-39 percent.
   24 hr trend......13 percent drier.
20-foot winds.......Light winds becoming west around 5 mph in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........6 or high potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Mixing height.......4900-5400 ft AGL increasing to 8000-8500 ft AGL
                    in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....West 5 to 10 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....500 (good) increasing to 1000 (excellent) in
                    the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (55-65 percent) until 2400, then
                    mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms after 2300 until
                    0200, then showers and thunderstorms likely.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent after midnight.
Min temperature.....Around 66.
   24 hr trend......4 degrees warmer.
Max humidity........95-100 percent.
   24 hr trend......Unchanged.
20-foot winds.......Light winds becoming south around 6 mph
                    overnight.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......2400-2900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West around 0 mph increasing to southeast
                    around 10 mph overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....100 (poor).
Pcpn Amount.........0.27-0.48 in.

.SATURDAY...
Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Showers and
                    thunderstorms likely until 1400, then a chance
                    of showers and thunderstorms.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 79.
   24 hr trend......9 degrees cooler.
Min humidity........65-70 percent.
   24 hr trend......34 percent wetter.
20-foot winds.......Southeast winds around 8 mph shifting to the
                    northeast around 9 mph in the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......3300-3800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast around 10 mph shifting to the
                    northwest in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....200 (fair).
Pcpn Amount.........0.37-0.48 in.


$$

MIZ050-056-064-071-212015-
Muskegon-Ottawa-Allegan-Van Buren-
Including the cities of Muskegon, Grand Haven, Jenison, Holland,
and South Haven
409 AM EDT Fri Jul 21 2017

.TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 88.
   24 hr trend......8 degrees warmer.
Min humidity........42-47 percent.
   24 hr trend......20 percent drier.
20-foot winds.......Light winds becoming southwest around 5 mph in
                    the afternoon.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......2900-3400 ft AGL near Lake Michigan and
                    4700-5200 ft AGL inland.
Transport winds.....Southwest 0 to 5 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....200-300 (fair to good).
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (55-65 percent) until 2200, then
                    mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms until 0200, then
                    showers and thunderstorms.
Chance of pcpn......80 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 70.
   24 hr trend......7 degrees warmer.
Max humidity........95-100 percent.
   24 hr trend......Unchanged.
20-foot winds.......Southeast winds 5 to 9 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......600-1100 ft AGL near Lake Michigan and
                    1600-2100 ft AGL inland.
Transport winds.....Southeast 5 to 10 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....100 (poor).
Pcpn Amount.........0.52-1.60 in.

.SATURDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Showers and
                    thunderstorms likely until 1400, then a chance
                    of showers and thunderstorms.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
Max temperature.....82-87.
   24 hr trend......5 degrees cooler.
Min humidity........63-68 percent.
   24 hr trend......20 percent wetter.
20-foot winds.......Southwest winds 9 to 14 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......2300-2800 ft AGL near Lake Michigan and
                    3600-4100 ft AGL inland.
Transport winds.....Southwest around 15 mph shifting to the west in
                    the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....600-1000 (excellent).
Pcpn Amount.........0.22-0.43 in.


$$

MIZ051-052-057>059-212015-
Montcalm-Gratiot-Kent-Ionia-Clinton-
Including the cities of Greenville, Alma, Grand Rapids, Ionia,
and St. Johns
409 AM EDT Fri Jul 21 2017

.TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 89.
   24 hr trend......4 degrees warmer.
Min humidity........38-43 percent.
   24 hr trend......23 percent drier.
20-foot winds.......Light winds becoming southwest around 5 mph in
                    the afternoon.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......4000-4500 ft AGL increasing to 6500-7000 ft AGL
                    in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....West around 5 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....300-500 (good to good).
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (55-65 percent) until 2400, then
                    mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms after 2300 until
                    0200, then showers and thunderstorms.
Chance of pcpn......80 percent after midnight.
Min temperature.....66-71.
   24 hr trend......4 degrees warmer.
Max humidity........95-100 percent.
   24 hr trend......Unchanged.
20-foot winds.......South winds 5 to 8 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......1900-2400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South around 5 mph shifting to the southeast
                    overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....100 (poor).
Pcpn Amount.........0.33-1.45 in.

.SATURDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Showers and
                    thunderstorms likely until 1400, then a chance
                    of showers and thunderstorms.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
Max temperature.....81-86.
   24 hr trend......6 degrees cooler.
Min humidity........63-68 percent.
   24 hr trend......25 percent wetter.
20-foot winds.......South winds around 9 mph shifting to the west
                    around 11 mph in the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......3300-3800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South around 10 mph shifting to the west in the
                    afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....600-700 (excellent).
Pcpn Amount.........0.33-0.61 in.


$$

MIZ065>067-072>074-212015-
Barry-Eaton-Ingham-Kalamazoo-Calhoun-Jackson-
Including the cities of Hastings, Charlotte, Lansing, Kalamazoo,
Battle Creek, and Jackson
409 AM EDT Fri Jul 21 2017

.TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 90.
   24 hr trend......6 degrees warmer.
Min humidity........39-44 percent.
   24 hr trend......19 percent drier.
20-foot winds.......Light winds.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......4500-5000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North around 5 mph shifting to the southwest in
                    the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....100-200 (poor to fair).
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (50-60 percent) until 0100, then
                    mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms after 2300 until
                    0200, then showers and thunderstorms.
Chance of pcpn......80 percent after midnight.
Min temperature.....Around 70.
   24 hr trend......4 degrees warmer.
Max humidity........95-100 percent.
   24 hr trend......Unchanged.
20-foot winds.......Light winds becoming south around 7 mph
                    overnight.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......1800-2300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South around 5 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....100 (poor).
Pcpn Amount.........0.36-1.22 in.

.SATURDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Showers and
                    thunderstorms likely until 1400, then a chance
                    of showers and thunderstorms.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 85.
   24 hr trend......6 degrees cooler.
Min humidity........65-70 percent.
   24 hr trend......28 percent wetter.
20-foot winds.......Southwest winds 9 to 14 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Mixing height.......3800-4300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest around 15 mph shifting to the west in
                    the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....800-1100 (excellent).
Pcpn Amount.........0.27-0.70 in.


$$

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...

.SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Areas of fog overnight. Lows in the upper 60s. North
winds 5 to 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny with a slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs around 80. Northwest winds 7 to 12 mph.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows around 60. North winds 5 to
9 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 70s. North winds 5 to
10 mph.
.MONDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 50s. Northeast winds
5 to 9 mph.
.TUESDAY...Sunny. Highs in the upper 70s. East winds 5 to 9 mph.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 50s.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs around 80.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 60s.
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny. Highs around 80.

$$



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