Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FNUS71 KAKQ 221343
FWSAKQ

Spot Forecast for Blackwater Marslands...USFWS
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
843 AM EST Wed Feb 22 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 EST on February 22.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
A trough of low pressure crosses the area today with a shower or
two possible through early afternoon. Rain amounts will be no more
than a few hundredths of an inch. Light and variable winds will
become south by late morning into the afternoon. Due the increased
cloud cover and chance of precipitation today, minimum relative
humidity values will remain elevated.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). A chance of
                    showers...mainly thru early afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 63.
Min humidity........63 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds...becoming south 5 to 8 mph in the
                    late morning and afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
Mixing height.......Increasing to 1800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 5 to 12 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

TIME (EST)          10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).............90  91  88  86  84  81  79  78
Weather cov.........CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Weather type........RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov............
Temp................51  53  55  57  59  61  62  60
RH..................80  77  74  72  67  64  64  69
20 FT wind dir......S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd......5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
20 FT wind gust.....10  10  10  15  15  15  15  10
Mix hgt (kft).......0.5 0.9 1.2 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.3
Transp wind dir.....S   SW  SW  SW  SW  S   S   S
Transp wind spd.....9   10  12  12  12  12  10  9
LVORI...............4   4   3   3   3   2   2   3
ADI.................10  12  16  19  20  20  19  14
Chc of pcpn (%).....30  30  30  20  20  20  20  20
Haines index........4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
VRate kt-ft/1000....4   8   12  15  16  17  17  11

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). A slight chance
                    of showers early in the evening.
Min temperature.....Around 48.
Max humidity........93 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 6 mph...becoming light.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
Mixing height.......300-800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 5 to 8 mph.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EST)          6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).............76  75  73  71  69  66  62  58  63  68  73  70
Weather cov.........SCH SCH SCH
Weather type........RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov............
Temp................57  55  53  52  52  51  52  52  51  51  51  51
RH..................75  80  86  86  86  89  86  86  89  93  93  93
20 FT wind dir......S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd......5   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   3
20 FT wind gust.....10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
Mix hgt (kft).......0.8 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Transp wind dir.....S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.....8   7   7   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   5   5
LVORI...............3   4   5   5   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6
ADI.................6   5   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   3   3   3
Chc of pcpn (%).....20  20  20  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
Haines index........4   4   4   4   4   4   3   3   3   3   3   3
VRate kt-ft/1000....6   2   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). Areas of fog
                    early in the morning. A slight chance of
                    showers.
Max temperature.....Around 70.
Min humidity........59 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds...becoming south 5 to 9 mph early
                    in the morning.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
Mixing height.......300-2000 ft AGL...increasing to 1600-2300 ft
                    AGL in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....South 6 to 14 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EST)          6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).............67     65     66     61     59     59
Weather cov.........AREAS  S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  S CHC
Weather type........FOG    RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov............
Temp................51     55     62     67     69     68
RH..................93     83     70     61     59     61
20 ft wind..........S 3    S 4    S 6    S 6    S 6    S 6
20 ft wind gust.....5      10     15     15     15     15
Mix hgt (ft)........300    600    1300   2000   2300   2300
Transport wind......S 6    S 7    S 10   S 12   S 13   S 14
LVORI...............6      4      3      2      2      2
ADI.................6      8      16     23     27     28
Chc of pcpn (%).....20     20     20     20     20     20
Haines index........3      3      3      3      3      3
VRate kt-ft/1000....1      4      12     20     26     27

$$
Forecaster...McGEE
Requested by...John Ashcraft
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1702467.2/AKQ
.EMAIL John_ashcraft@fws.gov



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