Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FNUS71 KAKQ 291330
FWSAKQ

Spot Forecast for Nassawango Mt. Olive Rx Burn...The Nature Conservancy
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
930 AM EDT Wed Mar 29 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 EDT on March 29.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
High pressure slowly builds in from the north today then retreats to the
northeast on Thursday as the next low pressure system approaches from the
west. A strong system is expected to impact the region on Friday with heavy
rain and afternoon thunderstorms possible.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 65.
Min humidity........38 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 7 to 10 mph.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Mixing height.......1300-1900 ft AGL...increasing to 2300-3000 ft
                    AGL in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....North 13 to 21 mph...decreasing to around 10
                    mph late.
Haines Index........2 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)          10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).............35  47  36  30  25  12  10  6
Weather cov.........
Weather type........
Tstm cov............
Temp................56  57  58  60  61  62  63  64
RH..................62  59  55  49  46  41  40  38
20 FT wind dir......N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
20 FT wind spd......6   6   6   6   6   6   5   5
20 FT wind gust.....15  15  15  15  15  15  15  10
Mix hgt (kft).......1.1 1.5 1.9 2.3 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.0
Transp wind dir.....N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
Transp wind spd.....20  17  16  15  14  13  10  10
LVORI...............2   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
ADI.................26  35  39  41  41  37  33  31
Chc of pcpn (%).....0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Haines index........3   3   3   4   4   4   5   5
VRate kt-ft/1000....19  23  27  30  32  29  27  29

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (10-20 percent).
Min temperature.....Around 37.
Max humidity........76 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 5 to 6 mph early in the
                    evening...becoming light...then becoming
                    northeast 5 to 7 mph in the late evening and
                    overnight.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Mixing height.......300-2100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast 7 to 15 mph.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)          6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).............7   7   10  15  16  19  18  18  22  23  25  26
Weather cov.........
Weather type........
Tstm cov............
Temp................60  58  53  52  49  46  44  43  42  41  40  39
RH..................44  47  57  61  65  71  73  70  70  70  73  73
20 FT wind dir......N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   NE
20 FT wind spd......5   4   2   3   3   3   4   4   4   5   5   5
20 FT wind gust.....10  10  5   5   5   10  10  10  10  10  10  10
Mix hgt (kft).......2.1 1.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Transp wind dir.....N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   NE  NE  NE  NE
Transp wind spd.....9   7   7   7   8   9   12  14  15  14  12  9
LVORI...............2   2   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
ADI.................25  5   5   5   5   5   5   5   6   5   5   7
Chc of pcpn (%).....0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Haines index........5   5   5   5   5   5   5   4   4   4   4   4
VRate kt-ft/1000....16  8   2   2   2   2   3   3   3   3   2   2

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 54.
Min humidity........41 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds 5 to 7 mph until late
                    afternoon...becoming light...then becoming east
                    5 to 6 mph late.
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
Mixing height.......300-2200 ft AGL...increasing to 2300-2900 ft
                    AGL in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....Northeast 5 to 13 mph...becoming east 3 to 7
                    mph early in the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)          6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).............27     30     34     38     42     50
Weather cov.........
Weather type........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov............
Temp................38     39     44     50     52     54
RH..................76     73     57     46     44     41
20 ft wind..........NE 5   NE 5   NE 5   NE 5   E 3    E 4
20 ft wind gust.....10     10     15     10     5      10
Mix hgt (ft)........300    300    1600   2200   2300   2700
Transport wind......NE 10  NE 13  NE 10  NE 7   NE 3   E 6
LVORI...............4      3      2      2      2      2
ADI.................8      11     23     19     11     14
Chc of pcpn (%).....0      0      0      0      10     10
Haines index........4      4      4      4      4      3
VRate kt-ft/1000....2      3      14     13     8      13

$$
Forecaster...RUSNAK
Requested by...Gabriel Cahalan
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1705402.1/AKQ
.EMAIL gcahalan@tnc.org



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