Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FNUS73 KAPX 221143 CCA
FWSAPX

SPOT FORECAST FOR OLD STATE SOUTH...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
743 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 EDT ON MAY 22.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATE...WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN MUCH MORE THAN ANTICIPATED. SPEEDS
OF UP TO 25 MPH ARE TO BE EXPECTED...BUT THE TREND WILL BE FOR A
GRADUAL WEAKENING THROUGH THE LATER AFTERNOON HOURS AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO WORK INTO THE REGION. BY EARLY EVENING THE
THOUGHT IS THAT WINDS DROP OFF FAST. CALM WINDS LATER TONIGHT.

AIR MASS IS VERY DRY...AND THAT WILL TRANSLATE TO THE
SURFACE TODAY. HARDLY ANYTHING DEPICTING A CLOUD TODAY...WITH
DECENT MIXING RESULTING IN AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WELL INTO THE
CRITICAL RANGE. COULD ACTUALLY SEE HUMIDITIES REGISTERING IN THE
TEENS THIS AFTERNOON. THE FLAT ASPECT NOT DOING MUCH TO THE
FORECAST WINDS...AND MINIMAL GUSTING TODAY...MAYBE UP TO 15 MPH.
DECENT HUMIDITY RECOVERY AT NIGHT WITH COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-5 PERCENT). AREAS OF FROST EARLY IN
                    THE MORNING.
TEMPERATURE.........48 AT IGNITION...MAX 55.
RH..................31 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 20 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS NORTHWEST AT 9 MPH AT
                    IGNITION...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS BECOMING
                    NORTHWEST 7 TO 12 MPH THIS MORNING. MINIMAL
                    GUSTINESS EXPECTED.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 8 TO 15 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......600 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5000-5400 FT AGL.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 5.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (700) AT IGNITION. MAX...EXCELLENT
                    (800).

TIME (EDT)      11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........0   0   0   0   0   0   0
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TEMP............48  51  52  53  54  54  55
RH..............31  27  25  23  22  22  21
20 FT WIND DIR..NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT WIND SPD..8   9   10  10  10  11  10
20 FT WIND GUST.20  20  15  15  15  15  15
HAINES INDEX....5   5   5   5   5   5   5
SMOKE DISP......700 800 800 800 800 700 600

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLEAR (0-5 PERCENT). WIDESPREAD FROST AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 29.
RH..................MAX 81 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH EARLY IN THE
                    EVENING BECOMING LIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 6 TO 14 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST 2 TO
                    5 MPH LATE IN THE EVENING.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0   0
WEATHER COV.....                                WID WID WID WID
WEATHER TYPE....                                FST FST FST FST
TEMP............55  54  51  46  41  36  33  31  30  29  29  29
RH..............22  24  28  35  46  61  72  78  78  81  81  81
20 FT WIND DIR..NW  NW  NW  W   W   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT WIND SPD..9   7   6   5   3   1   0   0   0   0   1   2
20 FT WIND GUST.15  15  15  10  5

.SATURDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT). WIDESPREAD FROST
                    EARLY IN THE MORNING.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 73.
RH..................MIN 22 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING WEST 5 TO 11 MPH.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 8 TO 16 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST 18
                    TO 22 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).........0      0      2      7      20     26
WEATHER COV.....WIDSPD
WEATHER TYPE....FROST  NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............31     39     56     65     70     72
RH..............81     70     37     27     22     23
20 FT WIND......SW 3   SW 6   SW 7   SW 8   W 9    W 10
20 FT WIND GUST.5      10     15     20     20     20

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.SUNDAY...
PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 6 MPH.
.MEMORIAL DAY...
SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS
AROUND 70. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.TUESDAY...
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS
AROUND 60. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 9 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...SCOTT DICKSON
REQUESTED BY...JIM FISHER
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20150522.OLDST.01/APX



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