Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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000
FNUS74 KBMX 171427
FWSBMX

SPOT FORECAST FOR ROUGH ROAD...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
927 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0913 CDT ON AUGUST 17.

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

MOISTURE IS INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA...ALLOWING RAIN CHANCES TO
RETURN TO CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON
MONDAY. STORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE ISOLATED FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...AND HOT DAYTIME TEMPS WILL
BE LIKELY FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA. RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND WIND VALUES
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH CRITICAL RED FLAG WARNING VALUES OVER
THE NEXT WEEK.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT). SLIGHT
                    CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 91.
MIN HUMIDITY........45 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 7 MPH IN
                    THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......200-1400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 8400-8900 FT AGL.
DISPERSION INDEX....4 INCREASING TO 103.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 7 TO 13 MPH.

TIME (CDT)      10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY.............MCLDY  PCLDY  PCLDY  PCLDY
WEATHER COV.....S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  S CHC
WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM
TEMP............80     84     89     91
RH..............79     65     53     52
20 FT WIND......SW 6   SW 7   SW 7   SW 6
20 FT WIND GUST.10     10     10     10
CHC OF PCPN (%).20     20     20     20
MIX HGT (FT)....5600   8400   8900   8500
DISPERSION......58     98     102    107
TRANSPORT WIND..270/9  250/12 250/12 240/13

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
                    EVENING...THEN CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 71.
MAX HUMIDITY........99 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS.
CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6900-7900 FT AGL DECREASING TO 400-800 FT AGL.
DISPERSION INDEX....113 DECREASING TO 4.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12 TO 14 MPH DECREASING TO 5 TO 10
                    MPH IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

TIME (CDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY.............PCLDY  PCLDY  PCLDY  PCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY
WEATHER COV.....S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM
TEMP............85     79     76     74     73     72
RH..............59     74     82     87     93     96
20 FT WIND......SW 3   SW 2   SW 1   SW 1   SW 1   SW 1
20 FT WIND GUST.5      5      <5     <5     <5     <5
CHC OF PCPN (%).20     30     30     30     30     30
MIX HGT (FT)....7900   5000   900    600    800    800
DISPERSION......113    5      2      3      4      5
TRANSPORT WIND..250/14 210/12 090/5  140/6  170/8  220/10

.MONDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT). CHANCE
                    OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
                    MORNING...THEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 90.
MIN HUMIDITY........54 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING WEST 5 TO 12 MPH IN THE
                    LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......60 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......900-2000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3000-4200 FT AGL
                    LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO
                    5600-7100 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING INCREASING
                    TO 8300-9600 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON DECREASING
                    TO 7000 FT AGL.
DISPERSION INDEX....11 INCREASING TO 28 EARLY IN THE MORNING...THEN
                    INCREASING TO 72 LATE IN THE MORNING INCREASING
                    TO 82 EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON DECREASING TO 65.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 8 TO 17 MPH INCREASING TO 17 TO 18 MPH
                    EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY.............MCLDY  MCLDY  PCLDY  PCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY
WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM
TEMP............71     75     82     86     89     88
RH..............99     87     69     61     56     58
20 FT WIND......SW 1   SW 2   W 7    W 9    W 12   W 10
20 FT WIND GUST.<5     5      10     15     20     15
CHC OF PCPN (%).30     60     60     60     60     60
MIX HGT (FT)....900    2000   4200   7100   9200   9000
DISPERSION......8      25     74     82     68     68
TRANSPORT WIND..230/8  240/10 260/15 260/17 260/18 260/18

$$
FORECASTER...KEISER
REQUESTED BY...JEREMY BRAND
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20140817.ROUGH.01/BMX





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