Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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629
FNUS71 KBOX 191243
FWSBOX

Spot Forecast for HOP Rx Fire...Nantucket Land Bank
National Weather Service Taunton MA
843 AM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 EDT on October 19.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
High pressure building over the northeast will bring dry
conditions to Nantucket. Southwest winds become quite gusty
today, with gusts of 25 to around 30 mph expected this afternoon
and tonight. A dry cold front will cross the area early Friday,
resulting in northwest winds for much of the day. Another high
pressure builds in behind that cold front with continued dry
conditions.

The minimum relative humidity will be 70 to 75 percent.

OUTLOOK...Saturday through Wednesday...

High pressure brings an extended period of dry conditions lasting
into Monday night. Becoming increasingly likely for a period of
wet weather toward the middle of next week.

.REST OF TODAY...

Smoke dispersal.....Fair to good (13300-30700 knot-ft).
CEILING (KFT).......25, decreasing to 20 late.
Max temperature.....Around 67.
Dewpoint............57.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 9 to 13 mph. Gusts up to 30
                    mph.
Min humidity........73 percent.
Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent).
Surface winds.......Southwest winds 9 to 13 mph. Gusts up to 30
                    mph.
Mixing height.......1000-1500 ft AGL.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Transport winds.....Southwest 16 to 24 mph.

TIME (EDT)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........30  18  9   9   9   9   7   6   4
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............61  62  63  64  64  66  67  65  64
Dewpoint........57  57  58  58  58  58  58  58  58
RH..............87  84  84  81  81  75  73  78  81
20 FT wind dir..S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..9   10  12  12  12  13  13  13  13
20 FT wind gust.12  16  20  22  25  28  28  28  30
Surface wnd dir.S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Surface wnd spd.9   10  12  12  12  13  13  13  13
Surface wnd gst.12  16  20  22  25  28  28  28  30
Mix hgt (kft)...1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4
Transp wind dir.SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.16  17  20  21  22  23  23  24  24
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
VRate kt-ft/100013  16  20  23  27  31  30  30  29
Ceiling (kft)...25  25  25  25  25  25  25  25  20

.TONIGHT...

Smoke dispersal.....Fair to good (16900-35400 knot-ft).
CEILING (KFT).......25.
Min temperature.....Around 56.
Dewpoint............56.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 10 to 14 mph with gusts to around 33
                    mph.
Max humidity........90 percent.
Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (5-15 percent).
Surface winds.......West winds 10 to 14 mph with gusts to around 33
                    mph.
Mixing height.......900-1400 ft AGL.
Haines Index........3 to 5 OR or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or moderate potential
                    for large plume dominated fire growth.
Transport winds.....West 22 to 29 mph.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........4   4   4   5   5   6   10  14  18  14  10  6
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............62  62  61  60  60  60  60  60  60  59  59  59
Dewpoint........58  57  57  57  56  56  56  57  57  56  56  55
RH..............87  84  87  90  87  87  87  90  90  90  90  87
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..13  13  13  14  14  14  14  14  14  13  12  10
20 FT wind gust.29  29  30  31  32  33  30  28  24  23  22  21
Surface wnd dir.SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W   W
Surface wnd spd.13  13  13  14  14  14  14  14  14  13  12  10
Surface wnd gst.29  29  30  31  32  33  30  28  24  23  22  21
Mix hgt (kft)...1.3 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9
Transp wind dir.SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W
Transp wind spd.25  25  26  28  28  29  28  28  26  25  23  22
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   4   4   4   3   3
VRate kt-ft/100029  28  29  31  33  35  31  27  23  21  18  17
Ceiling (kft)...25  25  25  25  25  25  25  25  25  25  25  25

.FRIDAY...

Smoke dispersal.....Fair to good (16900-39500 knot-ft).
CEILING (KFT).......25.
Max temperature.....Around 67.
Dewpoint............52, decreasing to 48 early.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 9 to 14 mph.
Min humidity........52 percent.
Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-5 percent).
Surface winds.......West winds 9 to 14 mph.
Mixing height.......1100-2600 ft AGL.
Haines Index........3 to 4 OR or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.
Transport winds.....Northwest 13 to 22 mph, decreasing to around 12
                    mph late.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........4      0      2      2      1      1
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Temp............59     61     64     66     66     65
Dewpoint........54     53     50     49     48     49
RH..............83     75     60     54     52     56
20 ft wind......W 10   NW 10  NW 13  NW 13  NW 12  W 9
20 ft wind gust.21     20     20     18     16     16
Surface wind....W 10   NW 10  NW 13  NW 13  NW 12  W 9
Surface wnd gst.21     20     20     18     16     16
Mix hgt (ft)....1100   1500   1900   2300   2600   2000
Transport wind..W 22   NW 21  NW 21  NW 20  NW 16  NW 13
Haines index....3      4      4      4      4      4
VRate kt-ft/100020     26     35     40     37     22
Ceiling (kft)...25     25     25     25     25     25

$$
Forecaster...NMB
Requested by...T. Parker Schuerman
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1717531.0/BOX
.EMAIL Tschuerman@nantucketlandbank.org



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