Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000
FNUS71 KCTP 210952
FWSCTP

Spot Forecast for Impact Area Rx...PA Army National Guard
National Weather Service State College PA
452 AM EST Tue Nov 21 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 EST on November 21.

If conditions become unrepresentative...
contact the National Weather Service in State College.

.DISCUSSION...
High pressure will push off the Mid Atlantic coast today, bringing
mostly sunny, milder and breezy conditions to the area. A cold
front will sweep southeast across the region early Wednesday with
just a slight chance of a shower. Otherwise, expect mostly sunny,
breezy and colder conditions for the rest of Wednesday.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent).
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max temperature.....Around 53.
Min humidity........41 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light and variable winds, becoming south 5 to 7
                    mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Mixing height.......0-1100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 3 to 12 mph.
Haines Index........4 to 5...or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EST)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........6   8   13  15  17  20  21  21
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............43  46  49  52  53  53  53  50
RH..............53  49  44  41  41  41  43  50
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..5   5   6   6   6   6   5   5
20 FT wind gust.10  15  15  15  15  15  15  10
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.4
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.9   10  10  10  12  12  12  9
Haines index....5   5   4   4   4   4   4   4

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent), then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (55-65 percent).
LAL.................No Tstms.
Min temperature.....Around 39.
Max humidity........82 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 5 to 6 mph.
Mixing height.......0-200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 3 to 8 mph.
Haines Index........3 to 5...or very low to moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EST)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........19  19  27  43  51  54  61  65  64  62  62  57
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............48  45  44  43  42  42  42  42  42  42  42  41
RH..............54  62  68  70  76  76  79  79  79  82  82  82
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..5   5   5   5   5   4   4   4   4   4   5   5
20 FT wind gust.10  10  10  10  10  10  5   5   5   10  10  10
Mix hgt (kft)...0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.8   6   6   7   7   7   6   5   3   3   3   3
Haines index....5   5   4   4   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent).
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max temperature.....Around 44.
Min humidity........52 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 7 to 12 mph. Gusts up to 25 mph
                    in the late morning and afternoon.
Mixing height.......0-1000 ft AGL, increasing to 3500-4500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 3 to 12 mph, increasing to northwest 20 to
                    26 mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 4...or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EST)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........47  42  40  37  33  29  26  24  22  19  16  13
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............41  40  41  41  42  42  42  43  43  42  41  39
RH..............82  82  76  73  67  62  60  55  53  53  52  54
20 FT wind dir..NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..6   6   8   9   10  10  10  9   9   9   8   7
20 FT wind gust.10  15  15  20  25  25  25  25  25  20  20  20
Mix hgt (kft)...0.1 0.2 1.0 2.1 3.1 3.8 4.2 4.4 4.5 4.3 3.9 3.5
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
Transp wind spd.3   6   12  20  25  26  26  25  25  25  24  23
Haines index....3   3   3   3   3   3   4   4   4   4   4   4

$$
Forecaster...Fitzgerald
Requested by...Tim Haydt
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1719046.0/CTP
.EMAIL thaydt@pa.gov



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