Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000
FNUS71 KCTP 270031
FWSCTP

SPOT FORECAST FOR DELTA 10...PA BUREAU OF FORESTRY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
831 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1953 EDT ON MAY 26.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE.

.DISCUSSION...

I ADDED TWO PERIODS /WED NIGHT AND THURS/ TO THE FORECAST.
I HAD MISTAKENLY OMITTED THEM EARLIER.

WINDS WILL BE 5 TO 10 MPH OUT OF THE SSE THROUGH WED MORNING.
THE WINDS WILL THEN TURN TO THE SW AND INCREASE ONLY SLIGHTLY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ANY GUSTS WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE TEENS.
HIGH HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

&&

.REST OF TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY. A
                    SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 65.
MAX HUMIDITY........86 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 8 TO 10 MPH.
LAL.................NO TSTMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1700-3200 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 600-1200 FT
                    AGL LATE IN THE EVENING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 10 TO 16 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).............48  53  63  69  69  69  69  69  69  69
WEATHER COV.........SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
WEATHER TYPE........RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TSTM COV............
TEMP................76  74  72  70  69  69  68  67  67  66
RH..................63  67  72  78  79  80  82  83  85  86
20 FT WIND DIR......S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT WIND SPD......8   9   10  10  10  10  10  10  9   8
20 FT WIND GUST.....15  15  15  15                  10  10
MIX HGT (KFT).......3.2 2.4 1.7 1.2 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6
TRANSP WIND DIR.....S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
TRANSP WIND SPD.....16  16  14  13  12  10  10  10  10  10
LAL.................3   3   3   3   2   2   1   1   1   1
HAINES INDEX........3   3   3   3   3   4   4   4   3   3

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT
                    CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING...THEN
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 78.
MIN HUMIDITY........60 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 8 TO 13 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE
                    MORNING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
LAL.................NO TSTMS UNTIL 1000...THEN 1-8 STRIKES UNTIL
                    1100...THEN 9-15 STRIKES UNTIL 1300...THEN
                    16-25 STRIKES UNTIL 1600...THEN >25 STRIKES.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500-2200 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 3300-4900 FT
                    AGL LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO
                    6500-7300 FT AGL EARLY IN THE
                    AFTERNOON...DECREASING TO 4000-5300 FT AGL
                    LATE.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 TO 17 MPH...INCREASING TO 16 TO 22
                    MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............68  64  62  65  70  74  79  82  82  80  77  73
WEATHER COV.........SCH SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY
WEATHER TYPE........RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TSTM COV............                SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY
TEMP................65  66  68  70  71  73  74  75  76  76  76  77
RH..................88  85  79  75  72  68  66  64  62  62  61  60
20 FT WIND DIR......S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT WIND SPD......7   7   7   7   8   9   10  12  12  13  13  12
20 FT WIND GUST.....10  10  10  10  15  15  15  20  20  20  20  15
MIX HGT (KFT).......0.5 0.5 0.7 1.3 2.2 3.3 4.9 6.5 7.3 6.7 5.3 4.0
TRANSP WIND DIR.....S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.....10  10  10  12  13  15  17  21  22  21  18  16
LAL.................1   1   1   2   2   3   3   4   4   4   5   5
HAINES INDEX........3   3   3   3   3   3   3   4   4   4   4   4

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL EARLY MORNING...THEN A
                    SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 65.
MAX HUMIDITY........93 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 7 TO 12 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL EARLY
                    MORNING.
LAL.................16-25 STRIKES UNTIL 2400...THEN 9-15 STRIKES
                    UNTIL 0100...THEN 1-8 STRIKES UNTIL 0200...THEN
                    NO TSTMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1800-3600 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 300-1300 FT
                    AGL LATE IN THE EVENING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 8 TO 16 MPH...DECREASING TO 3 TO 5
                    MPH LATE.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).............70  67  84  82  79  78  79  82  83  82  81  80
WEATHER COV.........CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH SCH
WEATHER TYPE........RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TSTM COV............CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
TEMP................75  74  73  72  70  69  69  68  67  67  66  65
RH..................63  67  75  77  80  83  84  86  87  89  91  93
20 FT WIND DIR......SW  SW  S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT WIND SPD......12  10  10  9   9   9   9   8   8   7   7   7
20 FT WIND GUST.....15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  10  10
MIX HGT (KFT).......3.6 3.4 3.1 2.5 1.8 1.3 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.4
TRANSP WIND DIR.....SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.....16  16  16  15  14  13  13  13  12  8   5   3
LAL.................5   4   4   4   4   4   3   2   1   1   1   1
HAINES INDEX........4   3   3   3   4   4   4   4   4   4   3   3

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
                    MORNING...THEN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 80.
MIN HUMIDITY........48 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 7 TO 10 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
LAL.................NO TSTMS UNTIL 1200...THEN 1-8 STRIKES UNTIL
                    1400...THEN 9-15 STRIKES.
MIXING HEIGHT.......600-2300 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 5200-5500 FT
                    AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 6 TO 15 MPH...INCREASING TO 13 TO 16
                    MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............77  72  69  64  55  50  50  49  49  46  41  38
WEATHER COV.........SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE........RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TSTM COV............                        CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
TEMP................66  67  68  70  71  73  75  76  78  78  79  79
RH..................91  88  86  77  70  63  59  55  51  50  49  48
20 FT WIND DIR......W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
20 FT WIND SPD......7   7   7   8   8   8   9   10  10  9   9   8
20 FT WIND GUST.....    10  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15
MIX HGT (KFT).......0.6 1.0 1.6 2.3 3.2 3.9 4.5 4.9 5.2 5.5 5.5 5.5
TRANSP WIND DIR.....SW  W   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
TRANSP WIND SPD.....6   9   13  14  15  15  16  16  16  15  14  13
LAL.................1   1   1   1   1   1   2   2   3   3   3   3
HAINES INDEX........3   4   4   4   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5

$$
FORECASTER...WFO CTP/DANGELO
REQUESTED BY...STEVE ZIEGLER
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20150526.DELTA.03/CTP



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