Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000
FNUS71 KCTP 181702
FWSCTP

Spot Forecast for Kalbfus Club Rx...USFS Allegheny NF
National Weather Service State College PA
102 PM EDT Tue Apr 18 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1200 EDT on April 18.

If conditions become unrepresentative...
contact the National Weather Service in State College.

.DISCUSSION...

Winds have been more-persistently out of the north than anticipated.
However, they are still expected to be variable until becoming
southerly at 5 or 6 kts this afternoon.

Increasing clouds will occur tonight with widely scattered light
rain showers on Wednesday, mainly later in the day. The southerly
wind will be stronger on Wednesday. An unsettled, wet period will
begin Wednesday night and last into the weekend.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent).
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max temperature.....Around 68.
Min humidity........27 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light and variable winds.
Mixing height.......4600-5800 ft AGL...increasing to 6600-7100 ft
                    AGL early in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southwest 5 to 7 mph.
Haines Index........4 to 5...or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........9   12  13  14  17  18
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............60  62  63  65  67  65
RH..............37  35  33  30  27  29
20 FT wind dir..N   N   N   NW  N   N
20 FT wind spd..3   2   2   1   2   2
20 FT wind gust.10  5   5   5   5   5
Mix hgt (kft)...4.6 5.8 6.6 7.1 7.1 6.7
Transp wind dir.NW  W   W   W   SW  S
Transp wind spd.7   6   5   5   5   5
Haines index....4   4   4   4   5   5

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent)...then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (65-75 percent).
LAL.................No Tstms.
Min temperature.....Around 47.
Max humidity........66 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light and variable winds...becoming south 5 to
                    8 mph late in the evening.
Mixing height.......4900-5900 ft AGL...decreasing to 1000-1400 ft
                    AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 5 to 14 mph...becoming south 16 to 17
                    mph after midnight.
Haines Index........2 to 5...or very low to moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........17  16  15  21  33  39  46  60  67  69  74  76
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............63  60  57  56  54  53  52  51  51  50  49  49
RH..............31  36  40  42  46  48  52  54  56  61  63  66
20 FT wind dir..N   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..2   2   2   2   3   4   5   5   6   6   6   6
20 FT wind gust.5   5   10  5   5   5   10  10  10  10  10  10
Mix hgt (kft)...5.9 4.9 3.8 2.8 2.0 1.4 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1
Transp wind dir.S   S   SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.5   6   7   8   10  12  14  16  17  17  17  17
Haines index....5   5   5   5   4   4   4   3   3   3   2   2

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). A slight chance of
                    showers early in the morning. A chance of
                    showers early in the morning...then showers
                    likely early in the afternoon.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max temperature.....Around 59.
Min humidity........66 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 7 to 9 mph. Gusts up to 20 mph in
                    the morning.
Mixing height.......900-1500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 17 to 23 mph.
Haines Index........2...or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........79  84  87  88  89  91  92  94  95  95  96  96
Weather cov.....    SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY
Weather type....    RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............49  49  49  50  51  52  53  54  54  55  56  57
RH..............68  68  71  71  68  69  69  66  69  69  66  67
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..6   6   6   6   7   7   7   7   7   6   6   6
20 FT wind gust.20  20  20  20  20  20  20  15  15  15  15  15
Mix hgt (kft)...1.2 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.1 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.3
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.20  22  23  23  23  22  21  18  17  17  17  17
Haines index....2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2

$$
Forecaster...WFO-CTP/Dangelo
Requested by...Alyssa Hammond
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1707053.2/CTP
.EMAIL alyssahammond@fs.fed.us



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