Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6
000
FNUS75 KGJT 261512
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR SHEEP GULCH...BLM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
912 AM MDT TUE AUG 26 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 MDT ON AUGUST 27.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...A FALL-LIKE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH
EASTERN UTAH WEDNESDAY AND ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY NIGHT FOR A WET START TO THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY EVENING EXPECT OCCASIONAL STORMS FAVORING THE FLAT
TOPS BUT SOME MOVING OVER THE BURN SITE. THE UPPER LOW MOVES ONTO
THE PLAINS ON THURSDAY. ANY SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE MORNING WITH AFTERNOON STORMS CLOSER TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
TUESDAY MORNING`S FORECAST MODEL IS ESTIMATING 0.45 TOTAL RAINFALL
OVER THE BURN SITE FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH
1 TO 1.4 INCHES IN NEARBY MOUNTAINS.

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........A CONVECTIVE DAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
                    BRIEF PERIODS OF SUN. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....63-68 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........45-50%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5-10 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR INCREASING TO EXCELLENT LATE MORNING.
LAL.................3.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 8500 FT AGL IN THE
                    LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 MPH INCREASING TO 20 MPH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
                    CONTINUE.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....40-45 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST 2-5 MPH IN THE EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE
                    ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED FROM SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD TO EXCELLENT IN OR NEAR SHOWERS...
                    OTHERWISE FAIR.
LAL.................3.
MIXING HEIGHT.......8000 FT AGL IN SHOWERS OTHERWISE 2500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....ERRATIC DRIVEN BY SHOWERS 5-20 MPH.

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80%). SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
                    ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING. BECOMING
                    PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED
                    LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE
MAX TEMPERATURE.....65-70 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........37-42%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST
                    IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD (100300 KNOT-FT).
LAL.................3.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3700 FT AGL INCREASING TO 9000 FT AGL IN THE
                    LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....VARIABLE 2-8 MPH IN THE MORNING...WEST 5-10
                    MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.

$$
FORECASTER...JOE RAMEY
REQUESTED BY...COLLARD
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20140827.SHEEP.01/GJT



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.