Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Chicago, IL

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434
FNUS73 KLOT 241337
FWSLOT

Spot Forecast for Kansas Prescribed Fire...Indiana Dunes National Lakeshore
National Weather Service Chicago IL
837 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1100 CDT on March 24.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (815) 834-0666, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...

Unseasonably warm conditions will be in place today along with strong
southwest winds, increasing even further late this morning, with gusts
to 30 to 35 mph at times into the afternoon. Even some surface gusts to
40 mph are possible. A cold front will drop southward into northwest
Indiana later this evening. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will
becoming increasingly likely later tonight in northwest Indiana.
Periodic showers and thunderstorms will continue throughout the weekend.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy then becoming mostly cloudy.
TEMPERATURE.........63 at ignition...Max 74.
RH..................62 percent at ignition...Min 44 percent.
WIND (20 FT)........Winds southwest at 17 mph at
                    ignition...otherwise southwest winds 14 to 22
                    mph. Gusts up to 35 mph decreasing to 30 mph.
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Mixing height.......1600 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 1500-2000 ft
                    AGL increasing to 2000-3200 ft AGL in the
                    early afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southwest 17 to 25 mph increasing to 25 to 29
                    mph.
MIXING TEMP 1700FT..69.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....Fair /24100 knot-ft/ at ignition. Max...good
                    /42100 knot-ft/ increasing to fair to excellent
                    (22900-66200 knot-ft) in the afternoon.

TIME (CDT)      11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM
SKY (%).........47  45  38  53  68  83  85  90
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TEMP............63  63  70  70  71  74  68  64
RH..............62  62  51  53  51  44  54  63
20 FT WIND DIR..SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  S
20 FT WIND SPD..14  14  14  14  14  14  13  11
20 FT WIND GUST.30  40  35  35  35  35  35  30
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.9 2.5 3.2 3.2 3.2 2.9 2.5 1.4
TRANSP WIND DIR.200 210 210 210 210 220 210 210
TRANSP WIND SPD.23  23  24  25  28  29  28  25
CHC OF PCPN (%).10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
VRATE KT-FT/100022  41  61  64  66  66  44  23

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy. Chance of light rain showers in the
                    evening, then light rain showers and chance of
                    thunderstorms after midnight.
TEMPERATURE.........Min 49.
RH..................Max 100 percent.
WIND (20 FT)........South winds 6 to 12 mph. Gusts up to 25 mph
                    early in the evening. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms after midnight.
CHANCE OF PCPN......80 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms until 0100, then 9-15 strikes.
Mixing height.......100-200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 14 to 22 mph shifting to the south 8
                    to 10 mph in the late evening and overnight.
MIXING TEMP 1700FT..N/A.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....Poor to poor (700-4700 knot-ft).

TIME (CDT)      7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM 6AM
SKY (%).........92  93  94  95  96  97  98  98  98  98  98  99
WEATHER COV.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF
WEATHER TYPE....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TEMP............61  59  57  54  52  51  49  49  49  49  49  49
RH..............67  72  77  86  93  93  100 100 100 100 100 100
20 FT WIND DIR..S   S   SW  SW  SW  S   S   S   S   S   S   SE
20 FT WIND SPD..9   7   6   6   6   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
20 FT WIND GUST.25  20  15  15  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
TRANSP WIND DIR.210 210 200 200 200 200 200 200 190 180 170 150
TRANSP WIND SPD.22  18  14  10  9   9   9   9   8   8   8   8
CHC OF PCPN (%).30  30  30  30  30  30  80  80  80  80  80  80
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   3   3   3   3   3   3
VRATE KT-FT/10005   3   2   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy. Chance of thunderstorms early in the
                    morning. Rain showers through the day. Slight
                    chance of thunderstorms late in the morning.
TEMPERATURE.........Max 59.
RH..................Min 78 percent.
WIND (20 FT)........Southeast winds 7 to 10 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms early in the
                    morning. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms late in the morning.
CHANCE OF PCPN......90 percent.
Mixing height.......100-300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 8 to 17 mph increasing to 14 to 20
                    mph late in the afternoon.
MIXING TEMP 1700FT..63.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....Poor to poor (700-3900 knot-ft).

TIME (CDT)      7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM
SKY (%).........99  98  96  94  95  97  98  98  98  98  97  97
WEATHER COV.....DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF
WEATHER TYPE....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TEMP............49  49  50  52  53  55  57  58  59  59  59  58
RH..............100 100 100 96  93  90  83  80  78  78  78  80
20 FT WIND DIR..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT WIND SPD..5   6   6   7   8   8   8   8   8   8   8   7
20 FT WIND GUST.10  10  15  15  15  20  20  20  20  20  15  15
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
TRANSP WIND DIR.140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 150 160 150 130
TRANSP WIND SPD.8   9   10  12  12  12  13  15  17  20  17  14
CHC OF PCPN (%).90  90  90  90  90  90  80  80  80  80  80  80
VRATE KT-FT/10001   1   1   1   2   2   3   3   4   4   3   2

$$
Forecaster...FRIEDLEIN
Requested by...Mary Fisher-Dunham
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1705135.0/LOT



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