Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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708
FNUS74 KMEG 202140
FWSMEG

Spot Forecast for Compartment 84...USDA FOREST SERVICE
National Weather Service Memphis TN
340 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1600 CST on February 20.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
An upper level low will move across the Lower Mississippi Valley
late tonight into Tuesday. This will bring back rain chances along
with a potential for an occasional thunderstorm or two. This activity
will gradually begin to depart the area Tuesday night. Rain free weather
will return for Wednesday and Thursday with a potential for showers and
thunderstorms again by Friday followed by rain free weather for the
upcoming weekend.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 79.
Min humidity........39 percent.
Dewpoint............48 increasing to 52 in the late morning and
                    afternoon.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 5 to 7 mph.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 5 to 7 mph.
Mixing height.......200-2000 ft AGL increasing to 2700-4100 ft AGL
                    in the afternoon.
Mixing height (MSL).200-2000 ft AGL increasing to 2700-4100 ft AGL
                    in the afternoon.
Mixing height (m)...61-610 meters AGL increasing to 823-1250 meters
                    AGL in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....South 5 to 14 mph increasing to around 15 mph
                    late in the afternoon.
Transport winds m/s.South 2 to 6 meters/second increasing to around
                    7 meters/second late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....MISSING.
Rainfall amount.....0.00 inches.

TIME (CST)      4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........47  47
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0
Temp............79  77
Dewpoint........52  53
RH..............39  43
20 FT wind dir..S   SE
20 FT wind spd..6   6
20 FT wind gust.10  10
Mix hgt (kft)...4.0 3.6
Mx ht msl (kft).4.0 3.6
Mix hgt (m).....1.2 1.1
Transp wind dir.S   S
Transp wind spd.14  15
Trans wind dir..S   S
Trans spd (m/s).6   7

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Chance of
                    showers and slight chance of thunderstorms
                    after midnight.
CWR.................10 percent increasing to 50 percent after
                    midnight.
Chance of pcpn......50 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 59.
Max humidity........90 percent.
Dewpoint............54.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 5 to 6 mph becoming light.
                    Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms after midnight.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 5 to 6 mph becoming light.
                    Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms after midnight.
Mixing height.......1400-3100 ft AGL decreasing to 600-800 ft AGL
                    in the late evening and overnight.
Mixing height (MSL).1400-3100 ft AGL decreasing to 600-800 ft AGL
                    in the late evening and overnight.
Mixing height (m)...427-945 meters AGL decreasing to 183-244 meters
                    AGL in the late evening and overnight.
Transport winds.....Southeast 9 to 15 mph.
Transport winds m/s.Southeast 4 to 7 meters/second.
Smoke dispersal.....MISSING.
Rainfall amount.....0.32 inches.

TIME (CST)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........46  53  61  68  71  75  78  83  88  93  95  96
Weather cov.....                        CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....                        RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........                        SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
CWR.............10  10  10  10  10  10  50  50  50  50  50  50
Chc of pcpn (%).10  10  10  10  10  10  50  50  50  50  50  50
Temp............74  71  69  68  66  65  64  63  62  61  61  60
Dewpoint........53  53  54  54  54  55  55  55  55  55  55  56
RH..............48  53  59  61  65  70  73  75  78  81  81  87
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..5   5   5   5   5   6   6   6   5   5   5   3
20 FT wind gust.10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  5
Mix hgt (kft)...3.1 2.3 1.4 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8
Mx ht msl (kft).3.1 2.3 1.4 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8
Mix hgt (m).....0.9 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
Transp wind dir.SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
Transp wind spd.15  15  15  15  15  15  15  14  13  12  10  9
Trans wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
Trans spd (m/s).7   7   7   7   7   7   7   6   6   5   4   4

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (90-100 percent). Rain showers and
                    slight chance of thunderstorms in the morning,
                    then chance of rain showers in the afternoon.
CWR.................100 percent decreasing to 50 percent in the
                    afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......100 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 66.
Min humidity........73 percent.
Dewpoint............56.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming south 5 to 6 mph early in
                    the morning, then becoming light late in the
                    afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms in the morning.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming south 5 to 6 mph early in
                    the morning, then becoming light late in the
                    afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms in the morning.
Mixing height.......1000-2900 ft AGL increasing to 3100-3200 ft AGL
                    early in the afternoon.
Mixing height (MSL).1000-2900 ft AGL increasing to 3100-3200 ft AGL
                    early in the afternoon.
Mixing height (m)...305-884 meters AGL increasing to 945-975 meters
                    AGL early in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....West 8 to 13 mph.
Transport winds m/s.West 4 to 6 meters/second.
Smoke dispersal.....MISSING.
Rainfall amount.....0.41 inches.

TIME (CST)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........98  98  98  98  97  97  96  96  95  95  94  94
Weather cov.....DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
CWR.............100 100 100 100 100 100 50  50  50  50  50  50
Chc of pcpn (%).100 100 100 100 100 100 50  50  50  50  50  50
Temp............59  59  60  61  63  64  65  65  66  66  66  65
Dewpoint........56  56  57  57  57  57  57  57  57  57  57  56
RH..............90  90  90  87  81  78  75  75  73  73  73  73
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   S   SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..3   3   5   5   5   6   6   6   5   5   5   3
20 FT wind gust.5   5   10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  5
Mix hgt (kft)...1.0 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.7 2.2 2.6 2.9 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.1
Mx ht msl (kft).1.0 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.7 2.2 2.6 2.9 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.1
Mix hgt (m).....0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.9
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   SW  W   W   W   W   W   W
Transp wind spd.8   9   10  12  10  10  9   10  12  13  13  10
Trans wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   SW  W   W   W   W   W   W
Trans spd (m/s).4   4   4   5   4   4   4   4   5   6   6   4

$$
Forecaster...Chaskelson
Requested by...Jim Walden
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1702465.1/MEG



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