Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Medford, OR

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000
FNUS76 KMFR 272254
FWSMFR

SPOT FORECAST FOR STOUTS CREEK...ODF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
354 PM PDT THU AUG 27 2015

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1527 PDT ON AUGUST 27.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT TO BRING WETTING RAIN AND STRONG
WINDS TO THE INCIDENT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...

...WIND AND WEIGHT OF RAINFALL TO INCREASE RISK OF FALLING DEBRIS
OVER THE INCIDENT THIS WEEKEND...

.DISCUSSION...A LARGE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN INLAND SATURDAY BRINGING WETTING
RAINS AND STRONG WINDS TO THE INCIDENT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING A SUDDEN BURST OF SOUTH WIND
ESPECIALLY OVER THE EXPOSED RIDGES. STRONG WINDS AND THE WEIGHT OF
RAINFALL MAY INCREASE THE RISK OF FALLING DEBRIS ON THE INCIDENT. THE
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE STEADY AND SOAKING (NOT INTENSE LIKE IN
THUNDERSTORMS), SO DEBRIS FLOW AND FLOODING ON THE BURN SCARS IS NOT
A MAJOR CONCERN, BUT IT IS SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....74-78.
MIN HUMIDITY........30-34 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN THE MORNING, BECOMING
                    SOUTH-SOUTHWEST 2-5 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5000 FT AGL
                    LATE IN THE MORNING.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH INCREASING TO 20-25 MPH
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN THE MORNING, BECOMING
                    SOUTH-SOUTHWEST 5-9 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 15 MPH
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. RAIN DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....50-54.
MAX HUMIDITY........90-100 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE, THEN BECOMING
                    SOUTH-SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH LATE AT NIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......LOWERING TO 2000 FEET AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 25-35 MPH.
CWR.................80 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
WIND (20 FT)........BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE, THEN BECOMING
                    SOUTH-SOUTHWEST 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH
                    LATE AT NIGHT.

.SATURDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........RAIN IN THE MORNING, THEN SHOWERS AFTER NOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....66-70.
MIN HUMIDITY........50-55 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......RISING TO 5000 FEET AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 25-35 MPH.
CWR.................100 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...WRIGHT
REQUESTED BY...DUANE WEIS
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20150827.STOUT.01/MFR



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