Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Medford, OR

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000
FNUS76 KMFR 040947
FWSMFR

SPOT FORECAST FOR JUNIPER MOUNTAIN...BLY RANGER DISTRICT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
247 AM PDT WED MAY 4 2016

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 PDT ON MAY 04.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS...

.DISCUSSION...THE LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WILL
CONTINUE TO SEND MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY NORTH INTO SOUTHERN
OREGON TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY 1500
TRACKING NORTH FROM EASTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY AND MODOC COUNTY. THE
ATMOSPHERE IS QUITE MOIST AND WETTING RAIN IS POSSIBLE UNDERNEATH
THE CORE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT EXCEPT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS WHERE
ERRATIC AND GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED. LIGHTNING FREQUENCY COULD
APPROACH LAL OF 3 THIS EVENING AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTINUE
UNTIL LATE EVENING. ON THURSDAY STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AND
LIGHTNING COULD BEGIN EARLIER THAN TODAY.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
                    MORNING. RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AND A SLIGHT
                    CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....58 TO 62.
MIN HUMIDITY........46 PERCENT BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....EAST WINDS 1 TO 2 MPH IN THE MORNING...THEN
                    SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 2 TO 4 MPH BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
                    WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AND ERRATIC NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4500 FT AGL BY LATE MORNING...MAX 7500 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTH 18 MPH BY LATE MORNING THEN INCREASING TO
                    SOUTH AROUND 23 MPH.
CWR.................35 PERCENT.
LAL.................2 POSSIBLY 3 TOWARD THE EVENING.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.
                    CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....43.
MAX HUMIDITY........93 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....WEST 3 TO 5 MPH IN THE EVENING...THEN
                    SOUTHEAST 1 TO 3 MPH.
                    WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AND ERRATIC NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5200-6600 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTH AROUND 17 MPH.
CWR.................45 PERCENT.
LAL.................3 IN THE EARLY EVENING...THEN 2.

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........RAIN SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....56 TO 58.
MIN HUMIDITY........58 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....NORTHWEST WINDS 2 TO 3 MPH. GUST TO 7 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5500 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHEAST AROUND 8 MPH.
CWR.................60 PERCENT.
LAL.................3.

$$
FORECASTER...BUNNAG
REQUESTED BY...ERIC KNERR
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20160504.JUNIP.01/MFR



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