Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FNUS72 KMHX 191759
FWSMHX

Spot Forecast for C 15...USFS
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1259 PM EST Sun Feb 19 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1300 EST on February 19.
If conditions become unrepresentative, or if you have questions
or concerns about this forecast, contact the National Weather
Service in Newport at (252)223-2328.

.DISCUSSION...
Winds mainly NW rest of afternoon but may veer to N at times. Sea breeze
from coast expected to remain south of area through afternoon.

High pressure will build in from the west this afternoon
and extend over the area from the north into Tuesday. The high
then slides offshore Wednesday. Low pressure will pass to the south
late week.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny.
Max temperature.....Around 72.
Min humidity........35 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
Mixing height.......Max 4300 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Northwest 12 mph.
Vent Rate...........Max 51600 mph-ft.
LVORI...............Max 3.
ADI.................Max 44.
Haines index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Sfc pressure........29.91 to 29.95 inHg.

TIME (EST)         1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%)............6   7   7   7   8
Weather cov........
Weather type.......
Tstm cov...........
Temp...............69  72  69  69  68
RH.................42  38  45  44  47
20 FT wind dir.....NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT wind spd.....6   6   5   5   5
20 FT wind gust....13  13  12  12  10
Mix hgt (kft)......4.1 4.1 4.2 4.3 2.9
Transp wind dir....NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
Transp wind spd....9   9   10  12  13
LVORI..............1   1   1   1   1
ADI................35  37  40  44  40
Haines index.......3   3   4   4   4
VRate mph-ft/1000..37  40  44  49  37
Stability class....B   B   B   B   B

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear.
Min temperature.....Around 47.
Max humidity........83 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 5 to 6 mph.
Mixing height.......Min 300 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Northwest 5 to 14 mph...decreasing to 3 to 7
                    mph after midnight.
Vent Rate...........Min 804 mph-ft.
LVORI...............Max 5.
ADI.................Min 1.
Haines index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Sfc pressure........29.97 to 30.12 inHg.

TIME (EST)         6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%)............11  12  12  10  9   7   3   1   2   5   7   6
Weather cov........
Weather type.......
Tstm cov...........
Temp...............64  60  58  57  55  56  55  54  54  53  53  52
RH.................56  64  71  76  79  78  77  80  77  83  80  83
20 FT wind dir.....NW  NW  NW  N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
20 FT wind spd.....5   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   5   5   5
20 FT wind gust....    5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
Mix hgt (kft)......1.6 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Transp wind dir....NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  N
Transp wind spd....14  14  13  10  8   6   5   3   3   3   5   7
LVORI..............3   3   3   3   4   4   4   5   5   5   5   5
ADI................6   6   6   5   4   3   2   2   1   2   2   3
Haines index.......4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
VRate mph-ft/1000..22  3   3   3   2   1   1   1   1   1   1   2
Stability class....B   B   B   B   B   B   F   F   F   F   F   F

.WASHINGTONS BIRTHDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny.
Max temperature.....Around 71.
Min humidity........35 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds 6 to 7 mph.
Mixing height.......Max 4000 ft agl.
Transport winds.....North 8 to 13 mph.
Vent Rate...........Max 38065 mph-ft.
LVORI...............Max 4.
ADI.................Max 38.
Haines index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Sfc pressure........30.14 to 30.23 inHg.

TIME (EST)         6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%)............6      5      7      8      10     15
Weather cov........
Weather type.......NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov...........
Temp...............51     54     61     67     69     69
RH.................80     71     56     39     35     36
20 ft wind.........N 5    N 6    NE 6   NE 6   NE 6   NE 6
20 ft wind gust....       15     10     10     10     10
Mix hgt (ft).......300    900    2200   3200   3800   4000
Transport wind.....N 9    NE 13  NE 13  NE 12  N 9    N 8
LVORI..............4      3      1      1      1      1
ADI................7      13     34     38     34     30
Haines index.......5      5      4      4      4      4
VRate mph-ft/1000..2      11     28     36     36     32
Stability class....F      F      F      B      B      B

$$
Forecaster...Merrell
Requested by...David L. Nelson
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1702446.0/MHX
.EMAIL Davidnelson@fs.fed.us



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