Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FNUS73 KMPX 251305
FWSMPX

Spot Forecast for Lost Valley...MNDNR
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
805 AM CDT Thu May 25 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 CDT on May 25.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...winds will increase from the southeast during the day,
and the morning should be mostly clear before cloud cover increases later
in the day.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny.
Temperature.........53 at ignition...Max 69.
RH..................86 percent at ignition...Min 57 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds southeast at 3 mph at
                    ignition...otherwise Light winds becoming
                    southeast 5 to 8 mph early in the morning.
Mixing height.......1400 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 300-1400 ft
                    AGL increasing to 4500-5100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 9 to 16 mph.
Mixing winds........South 9 to 16 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor /10600 knot-ft/ at ignition. Max...good
                    /45100 knot-ft/ increasing to good to excellent
                    (53900-70200 knot-ft) in the afternoon.
Haines Index........2 or very low at ignition...max 3.

TIME (CDT)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM
Temp............53  55  58  61  63  64  66  67  68  68  67
RH..............86  83  77  70  67  65  61  61  59  59  63
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..3   5   6   6   6   7   7   8   7   8   7
20 FT wind gust.5           10  10  10  10  15  10  15  10
Mix hgt (kft)...1.4 2.5 3.7 3.9 4.2 4.5 4.7 4.9 5.1 4.9 4.7
Transp wind dir.SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.9   9   9   10  13  14  15  15  16  16  16
Mixing wind dir.SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S
Mixing wind spd.9   9   9   10  13  14  15  15  16  16  16
Haines index....2   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   2
SDspl kt-ft/100011  19  30  36  45  54  60  66  70  69  67

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy then becoming mostly cloudy then
                    becoming partly cloudy then becoming mostly
                    cloudy. Isolated rain showers in the evening,
                    then scattered rain showers late in the
                    evening. Chance of showers 30 percent.
Temperature.........Min 56.
RH..................Max 86 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 5 to 6 mph early in the evening
                    becoming light, then becoming southeast around
                    5 mph in the late evening and overnight.
Mixing height.......3100-4500 ft AGL decreasing to 300-1700 ft AGL
                    early in the evening.
Transport winds.....Southeast 10 to 16 mph.
Mixing winds........Southeast 10 to 16 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair to excellent (18300-62400 knot-ft)
                    decreasing to poor (2300 knot-ft) in the late
                    evening and overnight.

TIME (CDT)      7 PM   9 PM   11 PM  1 AM   3 AM   5 AM
Temp............67     62     60     58     57     56
RH..............63     75     81     83     83     86
20 ft wind......S 6    SE 4   SE 5   SE 5   SE 5   SE 5
20 ft wind gust.10     5
Mix hgt (ft)....4500   1700   300    300    300    300
Transport wind..S 16   SE 13  SE 10  SE 12  S 12   SE 10
Mixing wind.....S 16   SE 13  SE 10  SE 12  S 12   SE 10
Haines index....2      3      3      2      3      3
SDspl kt-ft/100062     18     2      2      2      2

$$
Forecaster...DEVINNY
Requested by...Russ Smith
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1710061.0/MPX
.EMAIL russell.smith@state.mn.us



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