Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FNUS73 KPAH 171501 AAA
FWSPAH

SPOT FORECAST FOR TA 34...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1001 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1130 CDT ON APRIL 17.

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
THIS SPOT FORECAST WAS AMENDED TO REFLECT RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND
ASSOCIATED CHANGES TO OTHER FIRE WEATHER FORECAST ELEMENTS DUE
TO FASTER RISING TEMPERATURES AND STRONGER WINDS THIS MORNING.

MIXING HEIGHTS...TRANSPORT WINDS...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
SHOULD SUPPORT DISPERSION OF SMOKE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE GRASS AND LARGER WOODY FUELS TODAY...MAXIMIZING BETWEEN
2 PM AND 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

AN INVERSION WILL SET UP FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER 5 PM CDT...REDUCING
MIXING HEIGHTS TO NEAR THE 1700 FOOT MINIMUMS BY 6 PM. OVERNIGHT...
MIXING HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN VERY LOW...SEVERELY LIMITING ANY
DISPERSION OF SMOKE FROM ANY LINGERING BURNING LARGER WOOD
MATERIAL.

OTHERWISE...LOOKING BEYOND TODAY...DAYTIME MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL SLOWLY INCREASE EACH DAY...AVERAGING NEAR FIVE
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY NEXT WEEK.

TWO WEATHER DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH
ACROSS THE HEARTLAND DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THE FIRST WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH
THIS FRIDAY...WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING SLOWLY
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY...EXITING
THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. RAIN AMOUNTS SHOULD
REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT WITH EACH OF THESE SYSTEMS...
ALTHOUGH ISOLATED HEAVIER DOWNPOURS CANNOT
BE RULED OUT.

WARMER AND RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........62 AT IGNITION...MAX 68.
RH..................41 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 28 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTH AT 7 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE
                    SOUTHEAST WINDS 6 TO 8 MPH.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 4.
MIXING HEIGHT.......900-2400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5400-6300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 0 TO 7 MPH INCREASING TO 17 TO 24 MPH
                    EARLY IN THE MORNING...THEN DECREASING TO 10 TO
                    14 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.

TIME (CDT)      11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM
SKY (%).........MCR MCR MCR PC  PC  PC  PC  PC
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TEMP............60  62  64  66  67  67  67  65
RH..............41  39  37  34  33  33  34  40
20 FT WIND DIR..S   S   S   S   S   S   SE  SE
20 FT WIND SPD..6   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
20 FT WIND GUST.10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
MIX HGT (KFT)...4.2 4.9 5.4 5.6 5.6 5.5 6.0 6.3
TRANSP WIND DIR.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
TRANSP WIND SPD.22  17  12  10  10  12  13  14
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
HAINES INDEX....3   3   3   3   4   4   4   4

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    RAIN SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 46.
RH..................MAX 89 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE
                    EVENING BECOMING LIGHT.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR
                    LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4600-6100 FT AGL DECREASING TO 600-900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 8 TO 14 MPH INCREASING TO 13 TO 18 MPH
                    LATE IN THE EVENING.

TIME (CDT)      7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM 6AM
SKY (%).........PC  PC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC
WEATHER COV.....                        SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
WEATHER TYPE....                        RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TEMP............63  59  57  55  53  52  51  50  49  48  48  47
RH..............44  53  57  61  66  69  71  74  80  83  83  89
20 FT WIND DIR..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT WIND SPD..4   3   3   3   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
20 FT WIND GUST.5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
MIX HGT (KFT)...6.1 4.6 2.7 1.2 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7
TRANSP WIND DIR.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
TRANSP WIND SPD.14  8   2   0   6   13  18  18  17  15  14  13
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
HAINES INDEX....4   4   4   4   4   3   3   3   3   3   3   3

$$
FORECASTER...SMITH
REQUESTED BY...JOHN PAUL HART
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20140417.TA34_.01/PAH






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