Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FNUS73 KPAH 211421
FWSPAH

Spot Forecast for Rothomel...USDA FOREST SERVICE
National Weather Service Paducah KY
821 AM CST Tue Nov 21 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 CST on November 21.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
A cold front will sweep through the Heartland this afternoon and
evening. While no rainfall is expected with it, there will be some
clouds and a noticeable 10-15 degree drop in the lows and highs
between today and tomorrow, as high surface pressure moves in.
Temperatures will recover a bit by Thanksgiving, though the day
will start out with lows in the middle 20s. The warming trend will
continue into Saturday, ahead of another dry cold front.


.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Temperature.........45 at ignition...Max 57.
RH..................58 percent at ignition...Min 42 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Winds south at 8 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    West winds 5 to 10 mph.
Mixing height.......1200 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 1000-2800
                    ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 9 to 17 mph shifting to the west
                    around 7 mph late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth at ignition...max 4.

TIME (CST)      9 AM   11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
Sky cover.......PCLDY  PCLDY  MCLDY  PCLDY  PCLDY
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0      0      0      0      0
Temp............45     52     56     56     52
RH..............58     50     47     49     56
20 FT wind dir..S      SW     SW     SW     W
20 FT wind spd..8      9      8      8      5
20 FT wind gust.10     15     10     10
Mix hgt (ft)....1200   1400   1700   2300   2800
Transp wind dir.S      SW     SW     SW     W
Transp wind spd.15     17     17     16     7
Haines index....4      3      3      4      3

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (15-25 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Temperature.........Min 28.
RH..................Max 81 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......North winds 6 to 8 mph.
Mixing height.......2200-2900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 5 to 10 mph increasing to north 17 to 26
                    mph early in the evening.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CST)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky cover.......PCLDY  MCLEAR MCLEAR CLEAR  CLEAR  CLEAR
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0      0      0      0      0      0
Temp............49     44     39     34     32     30
RH..............61     65     67     72     75     75
20 FT wind dir..W      N      N      N      N      N
20 FT wind spd..6      7      8      8      7      7
20 FT wind gust.              10     10
Mix hgt (ft)....2900   2600   2400   2500   2400   2200
Transp wind dir.W      NW     N      N      N      N
Transp wind spd.5      18     26     22     20     18
Haines index....3      4      4      4      4      4

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Temperature.........Max 45.
RH..................Min 33 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......North winds 5 to 7 mph becoming light.
Mixing height.......2200-3000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 8 to 17 mph decreasing to 5 to 7 mph late
                    in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

TIME (CST)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky cover.......MCLEAR CLEAR  CLEAR  CLEAR  CLEAR  CLEAR
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0      0      0      0      0      0
Temp............28     31     37     42     45     42
RH..............75     66     52     41     36     41
20 FT wind dir..N      N      N      N      N      N
20 FT wind spd..6      7      7      6      5      5
20 FT wind gust.
Mix hgt (ft)....2200   2200   2500   2900   3000   3000
Transp wind dir.N      N      N      N      N      N
Transp wind spd.17     17     14     10     9      7
Haines index....4      4      4      4      4      4

$$
Forecaster...HOOPER
Requested by...Whitney jiter
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1719066.0/PAH
.EMAIL wjiter@fs.fed.us



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