Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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272
FNUS73 KPAH 231319
FWSPAH

Spot Forecast for Oatsville...U.S Fish and Wildlife Service
National Weather Service Paducah KY
819 AM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1300 CDT on March 23.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
High pressure over the Great lakes will move southeast, reaching the mid
Atlantic coast by late this afternoon. This will produce a southerly
low level wind flow, which will bring milder air into the region.
Showers and thunderstorms will return Friday night into Saturday
night as low pressure and a cold front move across our region.
Diminishing precipitation chances and continued mild conditions
are expected for Sunday. A wet pattern will set up for early next
week.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Isolated showers
                    and thunderstorms late in the morning.
CWR.................0 percent.
Temperature.........51 at ignition...Max 59.
RH..................44 percent at ignition...Min 35 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Winds southeast at 7 mph at
                    ignition...otherwise Southeast winds 7 to 9
                    mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms late in the morning.
Mixing height.......2300 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 1000-2600
                    ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 0 to 9 mph decreasing to around 0 mph
                    late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth at ignition...max 4.

TIME (CDT)      1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
Sky cover.......MCLDY  MCLDY  CLOUDY
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0      0      0
Temp............51     56     59
RH..............44     40     42
20 FT wind dir..SE     SE     SE
20 FT wind spd..7      7      7
20 FT wind gust.10     10     10
Mix hgt (ft)....2300   2600   2000
Transp wind dir.SE     S      S
Transp wind spd.13     5      0
Haines index....4      3      2

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (40-50 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (45-55 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Temperature.........Min 54.
RH..................Max 85 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......South winds 6 to 15 mph.
Mixing height.......800-2400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South around 0 mph.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky cover.......MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  PCLDY
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0      0      0      0      0      0
Temp............59     56     56     56     55     54
RH..............45     55     66     69     74     80
20 FT wind dir..SE     SE     S      S      S      S
20 FT wind spd..7      9      14     15     15     15
20 FT wind gust.10     15     20     25     25     25
Mix hgt (ft)....1400   800    1000   1100   1600   2400
Transp wind dir.S      S      S      S      S      S
Transp wind spd.0      0      0      0      0      0
Haines index....2      2      2      3      3      3

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (65-75 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Temperature.........Max 71.
RH..................Min 56 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......South winds 13 to 17 mph.
Mixing height.......1800-3600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South around 0 mph increasing to 26 to 35 mph.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky cover.......MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0      0      0      0      0      0
Temp............54     55     59     63     67     70
RH..............83     83     78     72     65     59
20 FT wind dir..S      S      S      S      S      S
20 FT wind spd..14     13     14     16     17     17
20 FT wind gust.20     25     25     25     25     25
Mix hgt (ft)....2000   1800   2000   2900   3500   3300
Transp wind dir.S      S      S      S      S      S
Transp wind spd.0      0      0      0      13     35
Haines index....2      2      2      3      3      3

$$
Forecaster...TREVINO
Requested by...Brian Winters
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1705047.0/PAH
.EMAIL brian_winters@fws.gov



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