Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FNUS73 KPAH 151517
FWSPAH

SPOT FORECAST FOR INAGHEH...SHAWNEE NATIONAL FOREST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
917 AM CST SAT NOV 15 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 CST ON NOVEMBER 15.

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

A FRIGID AIR MASS WILL BE REPLACED BY SLIGHTLY MILDER AIR TEMPORARILY
TODAY AS A SMALL DISTURBANCE MAY BRINGS A DUSTING OF SNOW TO
MAINLY SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHWESTERN INDIANA. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE HEARTLAND SUNDAY...RESULTING IN ONE OR TWO
INCHES OF SNOWFALL FOR THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AND THROUGHOUT SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE EVENT MAY START OUT AS RAIN. MONDAY...A REINFORCING
SHOT OF FRIGID AIR WILL SWEEP INTO THE AREA...CAUSING TEMPERATURES
TO PLUMMET AGAIN THROUGH MID WEEK. THERE SHOULD BE SOME REBOUND IN
TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE WEEK.


.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    VERY LIGHT SNOW EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURE.........35 AT IGNITION...MAX 37.
RH..................45 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 37 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTHEAST AT 3 MPH AT
                    IGNITION...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 4.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3100 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 2700-3400
                    FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 9 TO 15 MPH.

TIME (CST)      11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC
WEATHER COV.....            SCH SCH SCH SCH
WEATHER TYPE....            SN  SN  SN  SN
TEMP............35  36  37  37  37  36  34
RH..............45  42  40  40  42  45  51
20 FT WIND DIR..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT WIND SPD..2   2   2   2   2   1   1
20 FT WIND GUST.5   5   5
MIX HGT (KFT)...3.1 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4
TRANSP WIND DIR.SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
TRANSP WIND SPD.10  9   9   9   9   9   9
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0
HAINES INDEX....4   4   4   4   4   4   4

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    VERY LIGHT SNOW EARLY IN THE EVENING.
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 26.
RH..................MAX 84 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 4 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR
                    LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2500-3500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 5 TO 9 MPH.

TIME (CST)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).........MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY
WEATHER COV.....S CHC  S CHC
WEATHER TYPE....SNOW   SNOW   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............32     30     29     28     27     27
RH..............58     66     72     75     78     78
20 FT WIND......E 1    E 1    NE 0   N 1    W 1    SW 1
20 FT WIND GUST.
MIX HGT (FT)....3400   3400   3400   3200   2900   2500
TRANSPORT WIND..SE 9   S 8    SW 7   W 6    W 5    W 5
CWR.............0      0      0      0      0      0
HAINES INDEX....4      3      3      2      2      2

.SUNDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 41.
RH..................MIN 41 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2500-4200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 5 TO 9 MPH.

TIME (CST)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
SKY (%).........MCLDY     MCLDY     MCLDY     CLOUDY
WEATHER COV.....                    CHANCE    CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....NONE      NONE      RAIN      RAIN
TEMP............27        35        40        41
RH..............81        59        48        50
20 FT WIND......S 2       SW 2G5    W 2G5     W 2
MIX HGT (FT)....2500      3300      4200      3800
TRANSPORT WIND..W 5       W 7       W 9       W 8
CWR.............0         0         0         0
HAINES INDEX....2         2         2         2

$$
FORECASTER...TREVINO
REQUESTED BY...TYSON TAYLOR
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20141115.INAGH.01/PAH






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