Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FNUS71 KRLX 231338
FWSRLX

SPOT FORECAST FOR CARPER FIELDS...NATIONAL PARK SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
938 AM EDT FRI SEP 23 2016

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 EDT ON SEPTEMBER 23.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE ONE MORE HOT DAY TO CLOSE OUT
THE WORK WEEK, WITH LOWLAND TEMPERATURES AGAIN REACHING AT LEAST 90
DEGREES.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND WITH ONLY
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THIS WILL
ALSO CREATE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

ANOTHER WARMUP IS ENVISIONED EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE A STRONG COLD
FRONT ARRIVES MID TO LATE WEEK WITH MUCH NEEDED RAIN...AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES.

.REST OF TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT).
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
LAL.................NO TSTMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 82.
MIN HUMIDITY........47 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NW 3 MPH.
 SLOPE/VALLEY.......LIGHT WINDS...BECOMING NORTH AROUND 5 MPH EARLY
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2000-3800 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 3900-4000 FT
                    AGL LATE.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 1 TO 8 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR
                    LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........9   14  16  20  22  20  15  12
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
CCH OF PCPN (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
TEMP............68  72  75  78  79  80  81  80
RH..............76  67  60  54  50  49  47  49
SL/VL WIND DIR..SW  W   W   NW  N   N   N   N
SL/VL WIND SPD..1   1   2   3   4   4   4   4
SL/VL WIND GUST.            5   5   5   5   5
MIX HGT (KFT)...2.0 3.1 3.6 3.8 3.8 4.0 4.0 3.9
TRANSP WIND DIR.W   NW  NW  NW  N   N   NW  NW
TRANSP WIND SPD.1   2   3   6   7   8   8   7
HAINES INDEX....4   4   4   3   3   3   3   3

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (0-10 PERCENT). AREAS OF FOG LATE.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
LAL.................NO TSTMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 58.
MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........CALM
 SLOPE/VALLEY.......LIGHT WINDS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1800-3300 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 100-1100 FT
                    AGL IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 1 TO 6 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHWEST
                    AROUND 3 MPH LATE.
HAINES INDEX........4 TO 6 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR
                    LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........10  6   5   4   4   4   4   5   5   6   8   8
WEATHER COV.....                                        ARS ARS
WEATHER TYPE....                                        FOG FOG
TSTM COV........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
CCH OF PCPN (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
TEMP............79  76  72  69  67  65  64  63  62  61  60  59
RH..............51  56  64  70  74  78  81  81  83  86  89  92
SL/VL WIND DIR..NW  NW  NW  N   N   N   N   N   N   NW  SW  S
SL/VL WIND SPD..3   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   1   2   2   2
SL/VL WIND GUST.5   5       5   5   5                       5
MIX HGT (KFT)...3.3 2.5 1.8 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
TRANSP WIND DIR.NW  NW  NW  N   N   N   N   N   N   NW  SW  S
TRANSP WIND SPD.6   3   2   2   3   3   2   2   1   2   3   3
HAINES INDEX....4   5   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   5   5   4

.SATURDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT). AREAS OF FOG
                    EARLY IN THE MORNING.
CWR.................10 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.
LAL.................NO TSTMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 82.
MIN HUMIDITY........45 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........CALM...BECOMING NW 4 MPH.
 SLOPE/VALLEY.......LIGHT WINDS...BECOMING NORTHWEST 5 TO 6 MPH IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......100-1000 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 4100-5800 FT
                    AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 0 TO 2 MPH...BECOMING NORTHWEST 3 TO
                    10 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR
                    LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........12  18  21  23  26  29  32  35  36  38  41  42
WEATHER COV.....ARS ARS ARS ARS
WEATHER TYPE....FOG FOG FOG FOG
TSTM COV........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   10  10  10  10  10
CCH OF PCPN (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   10  10  10  10  10
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
TEMP............59  59  60  64  68  72  75  78  79  80  81  80
RH..............96  100 97  84  72  63  56  50  48  47  45  47
SL/VL WIND DIR..S   S   S   NE  N   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  N
SL/VL WIND SPD..2   1   0   1   2   3   4   4   5   5   5   5
SL/VL WIND GUST.                5   5   5   5   10  10  10  10
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.1 0.1 0.2 1.0 2.1 3.2 4.1 4.9 5.4 5.7 5.8 5.6
TRANSP WIND DIR.S   S   S   SW  W   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
TRANSP WIND SPD.2   1   0   1   3   6   8   9   10  10  10  10
HAINES INDEX....4   4   4   3   3   3   3   4   4   4   4   4

$$
FORECASTER...RPY
REQUESTED BY...JOHN FRY
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1600989.0/RLX


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