Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000
FNUS71 KRNK 221234
FWSRNK

SPOT FORECAST FOR CLABO...WILDLAND FORESTRY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
834 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 EDT ON APRIL 22.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...
PRECEDED AND ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SHOULD KEEP MOISTURE LEVELS HIGHER THAN
VALUES SEEN OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY STAYING ABOVE 35-40 PERCENT INTO THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER
WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WHICH LOOKS TO OCCUR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A COUPLE
BANDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS WELL
MAINLY BETWEEN 11 AM AND 3 PM. RAINFALL OF AROUND ONE TENTH OF
AN INCH APPEARS POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WITHIN
HEAVIER SHOWERS OR STORMS. STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS ARRIVE
BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY
WHEN MIXING SHOULD BE ENHANCED WHILE HUMIDITY DROPS TO
BELOW 30 PERCENT AGAIN.


.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). A SLIGHT CHANCE
                    OF SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN SHOWERS LIKELY
                    AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 75.
MIN HUMIDITY........45 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
                    AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
                    NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE.
CWR (0.01 IN).......10 PERCENT...INCREASING TO 20 PERCENT IN THE
                    MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO 60
                    PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...DECREASING TO 40
                    PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2100 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 5200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 13 TO 22 MPH...INCREASING TO AROUND 25 MPH
                    LATE.
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 5 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL
                    FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
SKY (%).............81     86     84     74
WEATHER COV.........S CHC  CHANCE LIKELY CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE........RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV............       S CHC  S CHC
TEMP................63     66     69     71
RH..................55     56     49     45
20 FT WIND..........W 6    W 6    W 6    W 6
20 FT WIND GUST.....10     10     20     25
MIX HGT (FT)........3000   3600   4300   5200
TRANSPORT WIND......W 14   W 18   W 22   W 23
LVORI...............1      1      1      1
ADI.................34     47     61     72
CWR.................20     50     60     40
HAINES INDEX........4      3      3      3

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT)...THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY CLEAR (20-30 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 44.
MAX HUMIDITY........70 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 7 TO 12 MPH.
CWR (0.01 IN).......10 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3800 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 1400 FT AGL LATE IN
                    THE EVENING...THEN DECREASING TO 300 FT AGL
                    LATE IN THE EVENING...INCREASING TO 1800 FT AGL
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 15 TO 24 MPH...INCREASING TO 25 TO 32
                    MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 5 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL
                    FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).............65     36     30     19     15     13
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TSTM COV............
TEMP................69     63     59     55     52     50
RH..................48     58     66     70     70     70
20 FT WIND..........W 6    NW 7   NW 6   NW 6   NW 8   NW 9
20 FT WIND GUST.....15     15     15     15     15     20
MIX HGT (FT)........4700   3800   1400   1000   2500   2000
TRANSPORT WIND......W 24   NW 23  NW 16  NW 20  NW 31  NW 32
LVORI...............1      2      3      3      3      3
ADI.................71     15     18     17     41     43
CWR.................10     10     0      0      0      0
HAINES INDEX........3      2      2      2      3      5

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 64.
MIN HUMIDITY........26 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 8 TO 11 MPH.
CWR (0.01 IN).......0 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3800 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 4500 FT AGL IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 20 TO 29 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 5 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL
                    FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).............21     37     41     36     27     20
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TSTM COV............
TEMP................48     48     53     57     60     62
RH..................67     61     44     34     29     26
20 FT WIND..........NW 9   NW 7   NW 8   NW 8   NW 7   NW 7
20 FT WIND GUST.....15     20     20     20     20     15
MIX HGT (FT)........2000   2300   3300   4000   4500   4500
TRANSPORT WIND......NW 29  NW 25  NW 24  NW 22  NW 21  NW 20
LVORI...............3      1      1      1      1      1
ADI.................39     53     60     61     59     59
CWR.................0      0      0      0      0      0
HAINES INDEX........5      4      3      3      3      3

$$
FORECASTER...HUDGINS
REQUESTED BY...BRANDON PRICE
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20140422.CLABO.01/RNK



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