Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS Northeast RFC

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AGUS71 KTAR 191642
HMDTAR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER...TAUNTON...MA
1240 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:
:
14Z ( 10 AM EDT ) SURFACE AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW A STRONG
NORTHWEST FLOW OF COLDER AIR ACROSS THE SEVEN STATE REGION OF NEW
ENGLAND AND NEW YORK STATE. IN FACT...LIGHT SNOWSHOWERS ARE BEING
REPORTED ACROSS THE ADIRONDACK MOUNTAINS IN NORTHERN NEW YORK
STATE AND ABOVE 2500 FEET IN THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WITH SOME RAINSHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS. THESE SHOWERS OF RAIN AND
SNOW WILL GRADUALLY END THIS AFTERNOON WITH BASIN AVERAGE MELTED
EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION ONLY ON THE ORDER OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH.
:
A BRIEF SPELL OF DRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY...
HOWEVER...LOW PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL
SPREAD SOME RAIN INTO WESTERN NEW YORK STATE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AND REDEVELOPS SOUTH OF
NEW ENGLAND BY TUESDAY EVENING...RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE
REGION OUTSIDE OF NORTHERN MAINE. THIS STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO CUT OFF AND MEANDER AROUND ALL THE WAY INTO FRIDAY KEEPING A
LOT OF THE NERFC SERVICE AREA UNDER THE GUN FOR RAINFALL RIGHT
THROUGH THIS UPCOMING WORK WEEK. WE THINK SOME OF THE RAINFALL
ACROSS MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE COULD EVENTUALLY BECOME SIGNIFICANT
WITH SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE.
:
OVER THE PAST 24-HOUR PERIOD ENDING AT 8 AM EDT THIS SUNDAY
MORNING...RAINSHOWERS WERE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL OCCURRED IN NORTHERN VERMONT WHERE BASIN
AVERAGES OF 0.50 - 0.75 INCHES WERE COMMON WITH SOME HIGHER POINT
TOTALS. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL REPORTED INTO THE NERFC FOR THE PAST
24-HOUR PERIOD ENDING AT 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING CAME FROM
JEFFERSONVILLE IN NORTHERN VERMONT WHERE 1.03 INCHES WAS RECORDED
.

:
HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION:
:
THE SLOWEST RESPONDING TRIBUTARIES AND MAIN-STEM RIVERS, PRIMARILY
ACROSS THE ST. JOHN AND PENOBSCOT RIVER VALLEYS OF NORTHERN MAINE
, THE HUDSON RIVER ABOVE ALBANY, NY AND THE BLACK RIVER NEAR
WATERTOWN, NY WILL CONTINUE GRADUAL RISING LEVELS THROUGH THE REST
OF TODAY AND A FEW LOCATIONS INTO MONDAY. THE LOWER PORTIONS OF
THE MERRIMACK AND CONNECTICUT RIVER HAVE CRESTED AND WILL CONTINUE
TO RECEDE TODAY. MOST LOCATIONS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION WILL
CONTINUE THE RECEDING TRENDS OF THE LAST 24 HOURS INTO TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.
:
TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WITH RAINFALL BEGINNING TO OVERSPREAD NEW YORK
STATE AND NEW ENGLAND, RIVER LEVELS GENERALLY WILL BE ON THE RISE
ONCE AGAIN. ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE MORE WET THAN EARLIER IN
THE MONTH AND EVAPOTRANSPIRATION IS DECLINING RAPIDLY WITH THE
LOSS OF LEAF COVER. AS A RESULT, PRECIPITATION ANTICIPATED FROM
THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR
RIVER LEVELS OF RAPIDLY RESPONDING HEADWATER AND SMALLER
TRIBUTARY RIVERS TO EXCEED MINOR FLOOD LEVELS AT AN ISOLATED RIVER
FORECAST LOCATION OR TWO.
:
RAINFALL DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS RESULTED IN SMALL RISING
RESPONSES OR REDUCED RECEDING TRENDS FOR MANY FORECAST LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE LAKE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY OF NEW YORK AND VERMONT AND THE
NORTHERN HUDSON AND MOHAWK RIVER VALLEYS. ELSEWHERE, RIVER
FORECAST LOCATIONS RECORDED ANYWHERE FROM RAPIDLY TO SLOWLY
RECEDING LEVELS YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT. FLUCTUATIONS OF SEVERAL
FEET OCCURRED FOR FORECAST LOCATIONS DOWNSTREAM OF DAMS OR AT
LOCATIONS WITHIN THE INFLUENCE OF THE TIDAL CYCLE.
:
ACCORDING TO THE USGS WATER WATCH WEBPAGE... 7-DAY AVERAGE
STREAMFLOWS RELATIVE TO THOSE HISTORICALLY FOR SATURDAY, 10/18 ARE
IN THE NORMAL TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL RANGES ACROSS MOST OF NEW YORK
AND NEW ENGLAND. RECENT RAINFALL AND INCREASED RIVER FLOWS HAVE
PROVIDED FOR SEVERAL LOCATIONS WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL FLOWS
RECORDED ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK STATE, WESTERN MAINE, MUCH OF NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN TO CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS. MANY LOCATIONS IN
SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND CONTINUE TO REPORT WEEKLY AVERAGE
STREAMFLOWS BELOW NORMAL LEVELS.
:
FLOOD OUTLOOK DISCUSSION:
:
THE NERFC FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK GRAPHIC INDICATES SIGNIFICANT
RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED IN THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.
:
THE FLOOD OUTLOOK GRAPHIC IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NERFC/FOP
:
ADDITIONAL WATER AND WEATHER RELATED INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON
THE NWS/NERFC HOME PAGE AT http://www.nws.noaa.gov/er/nerfc
:
$$
:
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:       RON HORWOOD
HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION:                ERICK BOEHMLER




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