Hazardous Weather Outlook
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FLUS44 KTSA 231904
HWOTSA

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
104 PM CST Fri Feb 23 2018

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-241145-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
104 PM CST Fri Feb 23 2018

...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOOD POTENTIAL THROUGH SATURDAY...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...Limited.
AREA...Far Southeast Oklahoma.
ONSET...After Midnight.

FLASH FLOOD.
RISK...Limited.
 AREA...Northwest Arkansas and Locations Along and East of
   Highway 69 in Eastern Oklahoma.
ONSET...Ongoing.

HEAVY RAIN.
RISK...Elevated.
AREA...Northwest Arkansas and Locations ALong and East of
   Highway 69 in Eastern Oklahoma.
ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
Widespread rain showers with an isolated embedded thunder
potential will continue to spread across Eastern Oklahoma and
Northwest Arkansas this afternoon and tonight. Overnight...rain
showers will continue to be possible with an increasing
thunderstorm potential across Southeast Oklahoma into West Central
Arkansas after midnight as a frontal boundary lifts toward the
region. Thunderstorm development along the boundary could allow
for a limited strong to severe storm potential with large hail
being the main threat.

The heavy rainfall axis looks to set up across locations mainly
along and East of Highway 69 in Eastern Oklahoma through
Northwest Arkansas through tonight. Rainfall amounts in the 1 to 2
inch range through tonight could be possible over these
locations. A flood watch remains in effect through Saturday
afternoon as additional rains on top of recent rains will increase
flash flooding as well as river flooding concerns.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.
SATURDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...No Hazards.
WEDNESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
THURSDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Rain shower and thunderstorm chances look to be ongoing across
Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas Saturday ahead of a cold
front forecast to move through the region Saturday afternoon and
evening. Instability interacting with the front will help to
create a slight risk of severe weather mainly across parts of
Southeast Oklahoma into West Central Arkansas. Another round of
heavy rainfall across Southeast Oklahoma into Northwest Arkansas
will continue flash flooding as well as river flooding concerns
Saturday. Precipitation looks to taper off from west to east
Saturday afternoon and should exit with the front by Saturday
evening.

Drier conditions are forecast Sunday into the beginning of next
week. However...shower and thunderstorm chances look to return by
mid week as another low pressure system approaches.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

$$


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