Hazardous Weather Outlook
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FLUS44 KTSA 302200
HWOTSA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
500 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-011000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
500 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL INCREASES THURSDAY...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 44.
ONSET...AFTER MIDNIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
KANSAS IN RESPONSE TO AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA TO THE
NORTH AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 44...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED...THERE IS A
LIMITED RISK OF AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
LOCAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...PRIMARILY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 44
CORRIDOR. A LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS
WILL CONTINUE BEFORE THE STORMS BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY MID MORNING.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY...WITH
SOME SEVERE RISK DUE TO INCREASING INSTABILITY AND SHEAR.

A GREATER THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST AND
EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...AND INTO NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS...AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION.
INSTABILITY AND BOTH LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND PERHAPS AN
ISOLATED TORNADO. THE THUNDERSTORM AND SEVERE WEATHER THREATS
SHOULD DIMINISH SUBSTANTIALLY BY LATE THURSDAY EVENING AS DRIER
AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THEREAFTER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.
$$






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