Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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000
AGXX40 KNHC 291712
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
112 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

REMNANTS OF A BROAD TROUGH HAS MOVED N TO A PSN FROM 28N82W TO
26N91W TO 22N92W WITH SCT CONVECTION ENHANCED ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS N OF 25N. THE GRADIENT IS SUPPORTING E-SE 10-15 KT FLOW
ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF WATERS WITH MOSTLY 15 KT WINDS IN A SE TO
NW SWATH ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
SOME THIS EVENING INCREASING THE SE FLOW TO 15-20 KT ACROSS THE
SW HALF OF THE GULF TONIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT. THE NORMAL
EVENING ENHANCEMENT OF 15-20 KT NE WINDS ALONG THE W COAST OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS EXPECTED TO ALSO RESUME THIS EVENING.
THIS WILL SET UP AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN BAY OF
CAMPECHE TONIGHT...AND AGAIN ON SAT AND SUN NIGHTS. A TROPICAL
WAVE CURRENTLY IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS NOW EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ON SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE. A BROAD
LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LATE SUN
NIGHT. THE ARRAY OF MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES ON THE LOW
DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK...BUT THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE MODEL SO WILL CONTINUE TO TONE DOWN THE INTENSITY
SOME IN THE GRIDS. STILL EXPECT THE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN BETWEEN
THE LOW AND RIDGING TO THE N SUPPORTING E-SE 20-25 KT FLOW
ACROSS THE SW GULF MON THROUGH WED EVENINGS.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL.
NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE W
REACHING THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN OVER THE WEEKEND AND MOVING W OF
THE AREA ON SUN NIGHT. AN UPPER CYCLONE NEAR 13N79W IS PROVIDING
UPPER SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. EXPECT THE TRADES TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT/SEAS 6-8 FT
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN W OF 70W ON SAT...AND CONTINUE THROUGH MON
BEFORE RELAXING SOME MON NIGHT. NOCTURNAL ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE
N COAST OF COLOMBIA EXPECTED AS WELL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 50W WILL PASS THROUGH THE TROPICAL
N ATLC WATERS ON SAT...PASS THROUGH THE E CARIBBEAN ON SUN AND
MON...REACHING THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ON TUE. A THIRD TROPICAL
WAVE ALONG 40W WILL REACH THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS SUN NIGHT
INTO MON ENTERING THE E CARIBBEAN ON TUE.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL.
NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

A TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE NW WATERS ACCOMPANIED BY TSTMS
WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH LATE SAT. A RIDGE EXTENDING E
TO W ALONG 27N WILL RE-ORIENT FROM 31N72W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA ON
SUN...THEN SHIFT SLOWLY N TO A PSN FROM 31N70W TO PORT CANAVERAL
ON MON...AND FROM 31N72W TO PORT JACKSONVILLE ON TUE. THE STRONG
TRADES ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA WILL DIMINISH TO MODERATE
TRADES BY TONIGHT WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.


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