Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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075
AGXX40 KNHC 060759
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
359 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR
WINDS. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS BLENDED 00Z MWW3 AND SMALL PERCENTAGE OF
NWPS TAFB WAVE PARAMETERS WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THE LATE SEASON AND STRONG COLD FRONT THAT RECENTLY MOVED ACROSS
THE GULF IS NOW WELL E OF THE AREA WITH HIGH PRES NOW PRESIDING
OVER THE FORECAST WATERS. THE 06Z ANALYSIS HAS A 1019 MB HIGH
CENTER AT 23.5N95W. CURRENT BUOY AND LATEST ASCAT PASS SHOW
MODERATE NLY WINDS OVER THE EASTERN AND N CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE
GULF. GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS ELSEWHERE IN RESPONSE TO THE
1019 MB HIGH. THE BUOY OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH A COUPLE OF
ALTIMETER PASSES SHOW SEAS IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE SE OF A LINE FROM
29N85W TO 20N97W...AND 1-3 FT NW OF THIS SAME LINE.

THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IN VERY
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA WILL CHANGE
LITTLE THROUGH FRI...THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD ON SAT. THE
HIGH WILL RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF AS THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF ATLC
RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF MON THROUGH TUE NIGHT.
THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND INTENSIFYING LOW PRES W
OF THE GULF WILL INDUCE AN INCREASE OF SE WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF ZONES SUN THROUGH EARLY MON WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO POSSIBLY AROUND 7 OR 8 FT IN THE FAR WESTERN GULF. IN
ADDITION...A TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
EACH EVENING BEGINNING ON SAT NIGHT FOLLOWED BY FRESH E-SE WINDS.
THE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SW GULF IN THE MORNINGS...AND
WEAKEN DURING THE AFTERNOONS.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR
WINDS. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS BLENDED 00Z MWW3 AND A SMALL PERCENTAGE OF
NWPS TAFB WAVE PARAMETERS WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THE STRONG SPRING TIME COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED ALONG A PSN FROM
EASTERN CUBA TO W OF JAMAICA...AND TO INLAND THE NE COAST OF
HONDURAS AT 06Z. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 80-180 NM OUT AHEAD
OF THE FRONT N OF JAMAICA...AND WITHIN 90 NM SE OF THE FRONT S OF
JAMAICA. ALTHOUGH NEARBY BUOY REPORTS AND LATEST ASCAT DATA SHOW
MAINLY GENTLE WINDS NEAR THE FRONT...GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH SOME OF THE SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY. THE LATEST ASCAT PASS
SHOWS MODERATE E-SE WINDS IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE SEA...AND
THROUGHOUT THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONES. SEAS ARE IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE
IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF ABOUT 83W...AND IN THE
TROPICAL N ATLC ZONES. SEAS ARE 2-3 FT ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN
SEA ZONES PER RECENT ALTIMETER AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS.

THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY LOSE ITS PUNCH AS IT
MAKES PROGRESS THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA GOING INTO
SAT NIGHT WHEN IT SLOWS DOWN AND BECOMES STATIONARY FROM NEAR
HISPANIOLA TO NEAR NORTHERN PANAMA. THE FRONT WILL THEN BECOME
DIFFUSE THROUGH LATE SUN. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE GRADIENT
ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGING CURRENTLY N OF THE AREA
WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS IN THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SUN THROUGH TUE...AND GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS
ELSEWHERE.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR
WINDS. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS BLENDED 00Z MWW3 AND A SMALL PERCENTAGE OF
NWPS TAFB WAVE PARAMETERS WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A SLOW MOVING SPRING TIME COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED AT 06Z FROM NEAR
31N69W SSW TO THE SE BAHAMAS...AND TO EASTERN CUBA. A POST-FRONTAL
TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO THE FAR NW PORTION OF BASIN WHILE A
DEVELOPING COLD FRONT IS JUST SE OF THE N GEORGIA AND S CAROLINA
COASTS. THE COLD FRONT OVER THE FORECAST WATERS IS SUPPORTED BY A
STRONG UPPER TROUGH NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE WESTERN
PART OF THE BASIN. STRONG S TO SW WINDS ARE WITHIN 360 NM E OF THE
FRONT N OF 24N. IN ADDITION....SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A RATHER
EXTENSIVE AND QUITE IMPRESSIVE 110 NM WIDE LINE OF NUMEROUS TSTMS
OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ROUGHLY WITHIN 60-220 NM. THIS ACTIVITY
CONTAINS FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND POSSIBLE WIND GUSTS TO
AROUND 30 KT. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE GENTLE TO MODERATE FROM
THE NW IN DIRECTION PER CURRENT BUOY REPORTS.

THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY REACH A PSN FROM NEAR 31N67W
TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON...FROM NEAR 29N65W TO
HAITI SAT...THEN STALL AND WEAKEN ACROSS THE SE PORTION ON
SUN. THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG SW WINDS AND TSTM ACTIVITY AHEAD
OF THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SHIFT TO THE FAR EASTERN
WATERS TONIGHT...AND LINGER INTO SAT AFTERNOON WHILE SHRINKING
IN COVERAGE. HIGH PRES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...AS DESCRIBED
ABOVE...WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO ATLC WATERS SUN THROUGH MON.
THE DEVELOPING COLD FRONT APPEARS THAT IT WILL FOLLOW IN BEHIND
THE TROUGH ACROSS THE NRN WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT THEN ALL MERGE
INTO THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT ON SAT OVER THE FAR EASTERN WATERS
WITH THIS FRONT WEAKENING TO STATIONARY FRONT JUST E OF THE AREA
BY LATE SAT NIGHT OR EARLY ON SUN WITH ITS SOUTHERN PART
STRETCHING SSW TO NEAR THE NE SECTION OF HISPANIOLA. MODELS
INDICATE THAT A RIDGE WILL THEN SET UP NEAR OR ALONG 30N MON
THROUGH TUE NIGHT. THE REMNANTS OF THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL MOVE
BACK W AS A TROUGH ACROSS THE SE PORTION MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE
NIGHT.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.



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