Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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000
AGXX40 KNHC 291849
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
249 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS...EXCEPT USED TAFB NWPS
OUTPUT FOR WAVEHEIGHTS WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE. AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE IN THE SE GULF NEAR 23.6N 84.3W AS OF 15Z
WITH IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT
GUSTS TO 40 KT. THE DEPRESSION WILL INTENSIFY TO A TROPICAL STORM
NEAR 23.9N 85.3W THIS EVENING WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT
GUSTS TO 45 KT. THE TROPICAL STORM WILL REACH NEAR 24.4N 86.4W TUE
MORNING...NEAR NEAR 25.0N 87.0W TUE EVENING...THEN BEGIN TO TURN N
AND NE AND INTENSIFY TO 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT AS IT REACHES NEAR 26.1N
86.7W EARLY WED. NUMEROUS SQUALLS TSTMS WILL SPREAD FROM THE SE
GULF AND STRAITS OF FL N AND NW INTO THE ERN GULF THROUGH TUE
NIGHT. THE TROPICAL STORM IS THEN EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD AS IT REACHES NEAR 28.6N 83.8W EARLY ON THU...AND
MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA THU NIGHT. A WEAK PRES PATTERN WILL
SETTLE IN OVER THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL STORM.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HURRICANE WARNING GASTON NE OF THE AREA IN THE WEST-CENTRAL ATLC
IS KEEPING A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE CARIBBEAN...WITH
MAINLY MODERATE TRADES OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...AND GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN. AS GASTON
MOVES N AND RECURVES...RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE WEST-
CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 24N. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL EXPANSION OF
THE PRESENT AREA OF STRONG TRADEWINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
THROUGH THU THEN DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY FRI THROUGH
SAT NIGHT AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS. MODERATE TRADES ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH SAT NIGHT.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE...
EXCEPT AVERAGE CONFIDENCE NW PORTION.

A RELATIVELY WEAK PRES PATTERN IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST
WATERS.OT EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE WATERS S OF 31N AS IT MOVES NW
THEN N EAST OF THE CAROLINAS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE IN THE SE
GULF OF MEXICO IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO A TROPICAL STORM
THIS EVENING...AND MOVE ACROSS NRN FL LATE THU INTO FRI. A VERY
TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL SET UP OVER THE NW WATERS E OF NE FL THU
THROUGH MUCH OF FRI WITH STRONG SLY WINDS ACROSS THOSE WATERS...
AND COMBINED SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 11 FT OUTSIDE THE EXPECTED
T.S. FORECAST TO TRACK NE ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF ZONE AMZ111
LATE THU THROUGH FRI. THE STRONG SW WINDS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
ACROSS ZONES AMZ113 AND AMZ 115 FRI THROUGH SAT NIGHT WHILE
SHRINKING IN COVERAGE. WINDS DIMINISH IN ZONE AMZ111 FRI NIGHT.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
.GMZ013...N CENTRAL GULF INCLUDING FLOWER GARDEN BANKS MARINE
SANCTUARY...
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING TUE NIGHT INTO WED.
.GMZ015...NE GULF N OF 25N E OF 87W...
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING TUE INTO WED.
.GMZ019...CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N BETWEEN 87W AND 94W...
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING TUE INTO WED.
.GMZ021...E GULF FROM 22N TO 25N E OF 87W INCLUDING STRAITS OF
FLORIDA...
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING TONIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.



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