Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXAK02 KWNH 261808
PMDAK

ALASKA EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
108 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

VALID 12Z SUN NOV 30 2014 - 12Z THU DEC 04 2014

...ANOTHER MAJOR ALASKAN LOW ON TAP...

THE WPC MEDIUM RANGE SURFACE FRONTS/PRESSURES AND 500 MB PROGS
HAVE AGAIN BEEN PRIMARILY DERIVED FROM THE 06 UTC GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN. WPC FORECASTER MODIFICATIONS ADDED SOME INFLUENCE FROM THE
GENERALLY COMPATABLE 12 UTC GFS/00 UTC ECMWF TO INJECT A BIT MORE
SURFACE SYSTEM DETAIL/DEEPER LOW CONSISTENT WITH NEAR AVERAGE
UNCERTAINTY AND COMMONLY FAVORABLE DYNAMIC SUPPORT. THE 06 UTC GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN OFFERS MAX WPC CONTINUITY AND ALSO OVERALL OFFERS AN
OFFSHORE STORM POSITION NEAR THE COMPOSITE FROM THE 12 UTC GFS AND
00 UTC ECMWF/ECMWF ENSEMBLES.

THE WEATHER PATTERN NEXT WEEK REMAINS HIGHLIGHTED BY AMPLE
MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND DEEP SURFACE LOW ENERGY WITH ASSOCIATED
WIDESPREAD UNSETTLED AREAS OF HIGH WINDS/WAVES AND WEEL ORGANIZED
PCPN SLATED TO WORK INTO THE BERING SEA THIS WEEKEND INTO
TUE...TRENDING A BIT MORE NORTHWARD THAN YESTERDAY. THE MAIN
SYSTEM THRUST THEN ROTATES DOWN OVER THE ALEUTIANS INTO THE NERN
PACIFIC/GULF OF AK TUE THROUGH NEXT THU. THIS LEADS TO ENHANCED
SW/SRN AK THROUGH SERN AK PCPN...WITH HEAVIEST POTENTIAL OVER
FAVORED COASTAL TERRAIN AND LIGHTER WINTERY AMOUNTS OVER-RIDING
FURTHER INLAND.

SCHICHTEL

$$




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