Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1
000
FXAK02 KWNH 291835
PMDAK

ALASKA EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
234 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016

VALID 12Z TUE AUG 02 2016 - 12Z SAT AUG 06 2016

...GUIDANCE/UNCERTAINTY ASSESSMENT...

TODAYS WPC ALASKAN MEDIUM RANGE PRODUCT SUITE WAS PRIMARILY
DERIVED FROM A COMPOSITE BLEND OF REASONABLY WELL CLUSTERED
GUDIANCE FROM THE 00 UTC ECMWF AND THE NAEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS
DAYS 4-8 AFTER COORDINATION. FORECAST SPREAD IS REDUCED COMPARED
TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...BOLSTERING FORECAST CONFIDENCE TO AT LEAST
AVERAGE LEVELS.

...PATTERN AND WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS/THREATS...

THE SLOW BUT STEADY PASSAGE OF AN AMPLIFIED MID-UPPER LEVEL
LOW/TROUGH SPLIT OVER THE GULF OF AK TUE INTO THU WILL SUPPORT
COMPACT SURFACE LOW/FRONTAL SYSTEM AND MOISTURE ENHANCEMENT
UNDERNEATH. THIS WOULD FUEL A PERIOD WITH HEAVIER RAINS WRAPPED
INTO SRN AND SERN AK AS ENHANCED BY FAVORED COASTAL TERRAIN.
MEANWHILE...ENERGETIC NRN STREAM ARCTIC TROUGHING ALOFT SHOULD
SUPPORT ORGANIZED BUT MODEST TRAILING SURFACE FRONTAL
PRECIPITATION PASSAGE/COOLING INLAND DOWN ACROSS WRN/N-CENTRAL AK
NEXT WEEK. LATER...GUIDANCE SHOWS AN INCREASING SIGNAL FOR
APPROACH INTO THE BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS OF AMPLE ERN ASIAN ENERGY
THAT MAY LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT SURFACE SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT IN ABOUT A
WEEK OR SO.

SCHICHTEL

$$





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.