Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXCA20 KWBC 211030
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TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
630 AM EDT THU SEP 21 2017

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI FROM SEP 21/06
UTC: UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HURRICANE MARIA A DEEP LAYER
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.
THIS FAVORS A MOIST ADVECTIVE PATTERN THAT IS FEEDING THE
HURRICANE AS IT MEANDERS TO THE NORTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
ACTIVITY IS CLUSTERING ALONG FEEDER BANDS THAT ARE STREAMING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS CONTINUES TO FAVOR ORGANIZED DEEP
CONVECTION ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLES AND PUERTO RICO...WITH
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BECOMING RIPE FOR AN ECHO TRAINING
PATTERN TO ESTABLISH. AS A RESULT...THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE
NEXT 24 HRS ARE HIGHLY LIKELY TO EXCEED WHAT THE MODELS SUGGEST.
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING EXPECTING AN ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
2-4 INCHES...WITH LOCALIZED MAXIMA OF 8 INCHES. MOST INTENSE IS
EXPECTED OVER THE VIRGIN ISLES EARLY IN THE CYCLE AND ALONG THE
CARIBBEAN COAST OF PUERTO RICO/THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL LATER THIS
MORNING-EVENING HOURS. ON FRIDAY-SATURDAY...AS THE HURRICANE MOVES
FARTHER TO THE NORTH...THE MOIST INFLOW IS TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN.
ACTIVITY IS TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE...WITH THE DAILY MAXIMA TO THE
SOUTH EXPECTED TO PEAK BETWEEN 1-3 INCHES. LESSER AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY TO MONDAY.

GUY...NMS (BELIZE)
RIVAS...SENAMHI (PERU)
DAVISON/GALVEZ...WPC (USA)

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