Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
227 PM EDT TUE MAY 03 2016

TROPICAL DISCUSSION FROM MAY 03/12UTC: A 250 HPA HIGH TO THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OF GUERRERO MEXICO ANCHORS A RIDGE ACROSS
MEXICO-CENTRAL AMERICA/WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE GULF. THE BROAD
RIDGE PATTERN WILL HOLD THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. IT IS TO THEN
RAPIDLY CRUMBLE UNDER PRESSURE FROM AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH TO THE
NORTH. MEANWHILE...THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS TO SUSTAIN A
CONVERGENT PATTERN ALOFT THAT IS TO INHIBIT ORGANIZED CONVECTION
ACROSS MOST OF MEXICO. DIURNAL CONVECTION...HOWEVER...IS TO BUILD
ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BETWEEN SOUTHERN GUATEMALA TO WESTERN
NICARAGUA. IN THIS AREA EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. THROUGH WEDNESDAY THIS DECREASES TO
00-05MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 10MM. ACROSS PANAMA-COSTA RICA...HIGHER
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED AS THE EASTERN PACIFIC ITCZ ENHANCES LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE...TO RESULT IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM/DAY.

THE AFOREMENTIONED POLAR TROUGH REACHES MAXIMUM AMPLITUDE ON
WEDNESDAY... WHEN THE MID LEVEL AXIS IS TO EXTEND ACROSS THE
EASTERN USA/WESTERN ATLANTIC TO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN/NORTHERN
CENTRAL AMERICA. ALTHOUGH HIGHLY AMPLIFIED...BEST INFLOW OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED ACROSS CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS. AT LOW LEVELS
THE POLAR TROUGH SUSTAINS A SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
GULF TO VERACRUZ MEXICO. THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING THE FRONT MOVES
TO NORTHERN FLORIDA WHILE THE TRAILING ACROSS THE GULF INTO
VERACRUZ. THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING IT IS TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA TO THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...WHILE TRAILING END UNDULATES
INTO THE NORTHERN YUCATAN/SOUTHERN STATES OF MEXICO. AS IT
MEANDERS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO EXPECTING FRONTAL NORTHERLIES
OF 20-25KT TO ACCOMPANY THIS BOUNDARY...WHILE OVER THE NORTHWEST
BAHAMAS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE TO PEAK AT 25-35KT. ON
THURSDAY MORNING THE FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS-WESTERN CUBA TO QUINTANA ROO IN THE YUCATAN-TABASCO
MEXICO. ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE FRONT REACHES THE SOUTHEAST
BAHAMAS...WITH TRAILING END CROSSES CENTRAL/EASTERN CUBA...BELIZE
TO NORTHERN GUATEMALA. DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY THE FRONT PUSHES
FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS-EASTERN CUBA WHILE
TRAILING TO THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN/NORTHERN HONDURAS. FRONTAL
NORTHERLIES ARE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE TO 10-15KT LATER IN THE
CYCLE. OVER VERACRUZ-SOUTHERN STATES OF MEXICO TO THE YUCATAN THE
FRONT AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL NORTHERLIES ARE TO SUSTAIN RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WHILE ON WEDNESDAY EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. ACROSS
BELIZE-GUATEMALA-NORTHERN HONDURAS THE FRONT/PREFRONTAL TROUGH
WILL RESULT IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15-20MM ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE ON THURSDAY THE MAXIMA INCREASES TO
20-35MM. THE MOST INTENSE IS EXPECTED AS THE FRONT SURGES ACROSS
THE BAHAMAS-CUBA LATER ON WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY...TO FAVOR
RAINFALL AMOUNT OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM IN MODERATE
TO HEAVY CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH FORECAST INDICES DO NOT SHOW
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE CONVECTION...THE FAST PROPAGATION AND STRONG
LOW LEVEL WINDS WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN SQUALLY WEATHER ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST-CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF CUBA. ON
THURSDAY TO FRIDAY EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 30-60MM...WITH MOST INTENSE EXPECTED OVER
CENTRAL-EASTERN CUBA AND THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS/TURKS AND CAICOS.

FARTHER EAST OVER THE CARIBBEAN...A TUTT EXTENDS TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TO NORTHWEST
VENEZUELA/EASTERN COLOMBIA. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY LIFT
TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE POLAR
TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE EASTERN USA AND THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH
CRUMBLES. AT LOW LEVELS...BROAD CELL OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL
DOMINATE THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THIS...IN-TURN...WILL FAVOR A MOIST
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TO PUERTO
RICO/VIRGIN ISLES AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THROUGH FRIDAY THE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER TO THE SOUTH AS THE POLAR TROUGH
BECOMES WELL ENTRENCHED TO THE WEST. OVER PUERTO RICO-HISPANIOLA
THE INFLOW OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM...WITH MOST INTENSE EXPECTED
OVER NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO AND ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. ON WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY THIS WILL DECREASE TO
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM. OVER THE LEEWARD AND FRENCH
ISLANDS EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15-20MM AS ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PULLING ACROSS THE
ISLAND CHAIN. ON WEDNESDAY THIS DECREASES TO 05-10MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 15MM.

THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TUTT IS INTERACTING WITH THE ATLANTIC ITCZ
TO THE SOUTH...DRAWING THE CONVERGENCE ZONE NORTH OF ITS
CLIMATOLOGICAL POSITION INTO THE NORTHERN GUIANAS-NORTHERN
VENEZUELA. BUT AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WEAKENS...EXPECTING THE
NEAR EQUATORIAL TROUGH TO MEANDER SOUTH TO ITS CLIMATOLOGICAL
POSITION OVER CENTRAL VENEZUELA-COLOMBIA. MEANWHILE...ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GUIANAS-NORTHEAST VENEZUELA EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. OVER CENTRAL VENEZUELA
EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM.
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IT IS TO THEN RESULT IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. OVER NORTHWEST
VENEZUELA-ANDEAN REGION OF COLOMBIA EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. THROUGH THURSDAY THIS DECREASES
TO 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. OVER AMAZONIA TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF COLOMBIA INTO SOUTHERN VENEZUELA EXPECTING RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING...DECREASING TO 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM ON
WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY.

TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12UTC.
INITIAL    24    36    48    60    72    84    96         TYPE
NONE

CARDOS...SMN (MEXICO)
CABANERIT...INAMEH (VENEZUELA)
DAVISON/GALVEZ...WPC (USA)
$$





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