Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXUS02 KWBC 270633
PMDEPD

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
233 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

VALID 12Z MON MAY 30 2016 - 12Z FRI JUN 03 2016

...PATTERN OVERVIEW...

VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING INTO THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY WHILE PROGRESSING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE NATION...POTENTIALLY CLOSING OFF AN UPPER
LOW OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.  MEAN
RIDGING WILL SLIDE INTO THE WESTERN U.S. BEHIND THE AMPLIFYING
UPPER TROUGH...AND THE FOCUS IN THE EASTERN U.S. WILL BE WITH A
DISTURBANCE NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS CURRENTLY BEING MONITORED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.


...MODEL EVALUATION/PREFERENCES...

MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE NATION NEXT WEEK.  THE GFS/GEFS
MEAN HAVE CONSISTENTLY BEEN ON THE SLOWER SIDE OF MODEL SPREAD
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...WHILE THE ECMWF
CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A MUCH FASTER SOLUTION.  WITHOUT A CLEAR
TREND IN PREVIOUS MODEL AND ENSEMBLE RUNS...THE WPC FORECAST
STAYED IN-BETWEEN THE SLOWER GFS AND FASTER ECMWF...WHICH WAS
SUPPORTED BY THE UKMET AND CMC.

A SECOND AREA OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST IS LATE NEXT WEEK
ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S....WHERE COMPLICATIONS IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC LEAD TO A LARGE AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF AN UPPER TROUGH POTENTIALLY LIFTING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST.  FOR NOW...THE WPC FORECAST RELIED ON FAIRLY AGREEABLE
ENSEMBLE MEAN GUIDANCE TOWARDS THE LATER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

IN REGARDS TO THE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY NORTH OF THE
BAHAMAS...MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TRACKING THE
SYSTEM WEST/NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST COAST...BUT PLEASE
REFER TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.



...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...

A MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. SHOULD ALLOW FOR
HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD/ALONG A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE
GREAT PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
TEXAS WHERE THE TAIL END OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BE SLOW TO PRESS
SOUTHWARD.  UPPER RIDGING IN THE WEST SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS WARM
AND DRY FROM THE WEST COAST THE ROCKIES...AND THE DISTURBANCE
CURRENTLY NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS COULD BRING MULTIPLE DAYS OF RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTHEAST AND CAROLINAS NEXT
WEEK.


GERHARDT







$$





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