Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000
FXUS02 KWBC 111603
PMDEPD

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1102 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

VALID 12Z SUN FEB 14 2016 - 12Z THU FEB 18 2016

...WINTER STORM NEXT TUE-WED FOR THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE EAST
COAST...


...OVERVIEW...

MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS IN THE EASTERN
NORTH AMERICAN CONTINENT WHILE A LONGWAVE RIDGE WILL GIVE WAY TO
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ARRIVING AT THE WEST COAST BY DAY 7/THU NEXT
WEEK.  THE MOST NOTABLY FEATURE THROUGH THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD IS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING UP THE EAST COAST FROM DAY 5/TUE TO
DAY 6/WED. THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR A MORE INLAND TRACK RATHER THAN
A COASTAL TRACK.

...MODEL PREFERENCES/UNCERTAINTY ASSESSMENT...

FOR THE EAST COAST CYCLONE...THE 00Z ECMWF IS NOTED TO BE
SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER THAN OTHER MODEL PACKAGES AND HAS BEEN
ELIMINATED FROM THE BLEND BEYOND DAY 4.  THE EC MEAN CONTINUES TO
YIELD THE MOST STABLE SOLUTION THROUGH DAY 7 AND THUS HAS BEEN
GIVEN A SIGNIFICANT WEIGHT THROUGHOUT...ESPECIALLY BY DAY 7.  THE
06Z GFS IS NOTED TO AGREE WELL WITH THE EC MEAN REGARDING THE
TRACK OF THE EAST COAST STORM AND THUS HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE
DAY 5 AND 6 BLEND.  LOW PRESSURE FROM THE EPAC ON DAY 6/WED IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND BY DAY 7/THU.


...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...

RECORD COLD IN THE EAST WILL EASE ON MONDAY BUT TEMPERATURES ARE
STILL FORECAST TO BE BELOW AVERAGE. THE WEST WILL SEE A CONTINUED
STRETCH OF ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL SPREAD EASTWARD
MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE STUMBLES EASTWARD. SHARP E-W
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHEAST AND
MID-ATLANTIC AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS ON TUESDAY AND A COASTAL
FRONT PUSHES WESTWARD AND NORTHWARD. THAT WILL TRANSLATE NORTHWARD
AS THE LOW PUSHES INTO NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY. MAINE SHOULD SEE
QUITE THE TEMPERATURE RISE FROM SUNDAY IN THE -10S TO WEDNESDAY IN
THE 40S... DEPENDING ON THE STORM TRACK.

PRECIPITATION WILL FOCUS INITIALLY IN THE WASHINGTON CASCADES AND
COASTAL RANGE NEAR THE STORM TRACK BUT THEN SINK SOUTHWARD INTO
CALIFORNIA BY THURSDAY. SIGNAL SEEMS GOOD FOR PRECIP TO EVENTUALLY
MAKE IT TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THU/FRI. NORTHERN STREAM FLOW WILL
WRING OUT SOME LIGHT SNOW IN THE NORTHERN TIER EARLY IN THE PERIOD
BEFORE THE SOUTHEAST SYSTEM EXPANDS ITS PRECIPITATION SHIELD.
ICING THREAT REMAINS A STRONG POSSIBILITY IN THE SOUTHEAST WHERE
COLD AIR IS RELUCTANT TO BE SCOURED OUT AS WARM ADVECTION PRECIP
IS PULLED IN FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST. SNOW IS FORECAST TO THE
NORTH, DEEPER INTO THE COLD AIR, BUT A CHANGEOVER IS LIKELY FOR
MANY AREAS AS THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE WELL EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. TOO SOON TO STATE HOW FAR WEST THAT MAY
BE. PLEASE CONSULT THE WPC EXPERIMENTAL DAY 4-7 WINTER WEATHER
OUTLOOK GRAPHICS -- LINKED FROM OUR HOME PAGE -- WHICH ARE
PROBABILISTIC IN NATURE.


KONG/FRACASSO

$$




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