Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000
FXUS10 KWNH 120636
PMDHMD

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
236 AM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014

VALID JUL 12/0000 UTC THRU JUL 15/1200 UTC

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...


00Z MODEL EVALUATION WITH PREFERENCES
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT SEEM TO DEGRADE THEIR SHORT
RANGE FORECASTS.


SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE

OTHER THAN THE 00Z CANADIAN BEING A TOUCH STRONGER, THE GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE.  A GENERAL MODEL
COMPROMISE IS PREFERRED WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE
CONSIDERING THE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT.


INVERTED UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH WESTERN MEXICO
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM.  THE
PREFERENCE IS FOR A GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE WITH ABOVE AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE CONSIDERING THE MINIMAL MODEL SPREAD.


DEEP VORTEX DROPPING INTO MICHIGAN MONDAY/TUESDAY
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: CANADIAN/NAM/UKMET COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE

THERE IS SOME GUIDANCE SPREAD WITH THIS SYSTEM, WITH THE 00Z ECMWF
ON THE SLOW/WEST SIDE AND THE 00Z GFS ON THE QUICKER/NORTHEAST
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE.  WHILE AN UPSTREAM RIDGE IN SOUTHWEST CANADA
COULD ALLOW THIS SYSTEM TO DIG MORE SOUTHERLY LIKE THE ECMWF, A
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST COULD ALLOW GREATER
PROGRESSION.  THE GUIDANCE MOST IN LINE WITH THE 12Z ECMWF/00Z
GEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE THE INTERMEDIATE 00Z CANADIAN/00Z NAM/00Z
UKMET SOLUTIONS, WHICH ARE PREFERRED WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE.


...MODEL TREND GRAPHICS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml...
...500 MB FORECASTS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml...

ROTH
$$




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