Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000
FXUS10 KWNH 060424
PMDHMD

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1223 AM EDT FRI MAY 06 2016

VALID MAY 06/0000 UTC THRU MAY 09/1200 UTC

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...

00Z NAM/GFS EVALUATION INCLUDING PRELIMINARY MODEL PREFERENCES
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
GFS/NAM INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT SEEM TO DEGRADE THEIR SHORT
RANGE FORECASTS.


SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: NON-NAM COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

THE 00Z NAM IS THE SLOWEST WITH THIS SYSTEM`S PROGRESSION -- ITS
USUAL BIAS.  PREFER A QUICKER CONSENSUS OF THE 00Z GFS/12Z
CANADIAN/12Z UKMET/12Z ECMWF WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.


DEEP CYCLONE MOVING INTO THE PLAINS SUN NIGHT/MONDAY
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

DESPITE SMALL DIFFERENCES AT 500 HPA AND 700 HPA WITH THIS SYSTEM,
THE SURFACE PATTERN IS REMARKABLY CLOSE AMONGST THE
DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE MEAN GUIDANCE.  TO DEAL WITH THE
DIFFERENCES ALOFT, PREFER A COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z GFS/00Z NAM/12Z
UKMET/12Z CANADIAN/12Z ECMWF WITH AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.


DEEP CYCLONE MOVING TOWARD ME SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: CLOSEST TO THE UKMET
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

THERE ARE STRENGTH ISSUES WITH A CLOSED CYCLONE EVOLVING OVER
ATLANTIC CANADA SUNDAY NIGHT/MORNING MORNING, WITH THE 00Z GFS THE
STRONGEST OF THE GUIDANCE AND THE 12Z CANADIAN THE WEAKEST.  THE
12Z UKMET MAKES FOR A GOOD COMPROMISE ALOFT AND WITH ITS SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPMENT AND FRONTAL TIMING, SO IT IS PREFERRED WITH
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.


TROUGH SWINGING OFFSHORE THE EAST COAST FRI NIGHT/SAT
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
THE GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE, SO WE FAVOR A
GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE TO DEAL
WITH ANY LINGERING DETAIL ISSUES.


...MODEL TREND GRAPHICS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml...

...500 MB FORECASTS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml...

ROTH
$$




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