Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
000
FXUS10 KWNH 010646
PMDHMD

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
245 AM EDT FRI AUG 01 2014

VALID AUG 01/0000 UTC THRU AUG 04/1200 UTC

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...

00Z MODEL EVALUATION WITH FINAL PREFERENCES
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
THERE DID NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY INITIALIZATION ERRORS WITH THE 00Z
NAM/GFS DEEMED SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO IMPACT THEIR FORECASTS.


MEAN TROF CONTINUING TO ANCHOR THE EASTERN U.S.
COASTAL BAROCLINIC ZONE
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: 00Z NAM...00Z GFS...00Z ECMWF BLEND
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

THE 00Z ECMWF HAS SHIFTED ITS COASTAL FRONTAL ZONE AND WEAK
SURFACE LOW NEAR LONG ISLAND ON SAT MUCH CLOSER TO THE REMAINING
MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS AN IMPROVEMENT TO ITS 12Z RUN. THE 00Z
UKMET/CMC HAVE NOT ADJUSTED CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF TO
BE INCLUDED IN THE PREFERENCE HOWEVER...WITH THE NAM/GFS FARTHEST
WEST WITH THE UPPER LOW...FOLLOWED BY THE ECMWF...AND THE
UKMET/CMC ARE FARTHEST EAST. THE ENSEMBLE MEANS SUPPORT A BLEND OF
THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF WHICH WOULD KEEP THE FRONT CLOSER TO THE U.S.
COASTLINE COMPARED TO THE UKMET/CMC WHICH ARE FARTHE OFFSHORE WITH
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC COAST.


WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY IMPACTING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH SUN
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

SMALLER-SCALE DIFFERENCES CAN BE RESOLVED WITH A GENERAL MODEL
COMPROMISE GIVEN DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE.


MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ON SUN
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: NON-00Z CMC BLEND
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME SORT OF DISTURBANCE EVOLVING OUT
OF NORTHWESTERN MEXICO REACHING THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEKEND. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE 00Z CMC...THE
MODELS SHOW THIS SYSTEM SIMILARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES
WITH THE 12Z CMC SLOWER AND/OR WEST OF THE REMAINING MODEL
CONSENSUS.


...MODEL TREND GRAPHICS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml...
...500 MB FORECASTS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml...


OTTO

$$




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.