Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000
FXUS10 KWNH 270702
PMDHMD

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
302 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

VALID MAY 27/0000 UTC THRU MAY 30/1200 UTC

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...

00Z MODEL EVALUATION INCLUDING PREFERENCES
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT SEEM TO DEGRADE THEIR SHORT
RANGE FORECASTS


SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE MIDWEST FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING
LOW/FRONTAL PROGRESSION ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

THE 00Z NAM SHOWS A STRONG SYSTEM ALOFT AND A SLOWER FRONTAL
PROGRESSION/MORE OF A LOW ACROSS THE MIDWEST -- ITS USUAL BIAS.
THE 00Z UKMET APPEARS TO BE FORMING A SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE-LIKE
FEATURE OUT OF AN MCS OVER NORTHEAST OK WHICH STRENGTHENS AS IT
MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST KS.  DESPITE THE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN MAY
ACROSS OK, AND THE MCS`S POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL, BELIEVE THE UKMET
IS MUCH TOO STRONG WITH THIS LOW.  PREFER A COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z
GFS/00Z ECMWF/00Z CANADIAN WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.


CLOSED LOW DROPPING THROUGH BRITISH COLUMBIA LATE FRIDAY
CYCLONE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA FRIDAY
FRONT CROSSING NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

THE GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THESE FEATURES.


...MODEL TREND GRAPHICS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml...

...500 MB FORECASTS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml...

ROTH
$$




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