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FXUS06 KWBC 261901
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 01 - 05 2016

TODAY`S MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN OVER THE
FORECAST DOMAIN. A RIDGE IS PREDICTED OVER THE NORTHWEST CONUS AND A TROUGH IS
FORECAST DOWNSTREAM NEAR THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE ECMWF-BASED SOLUTIONS
DEPICT MORE AMPLIFICATION OF THESE FEATURES RELATIVE TO THE GFS WITH THE
CANADIAN REPRESENTING A COMPROMISE. OVER THE ALASKA SECTOR, THE ENSEMBLE MEANS
FROM THE GFS, ECMWF, AND CANADIAN ALL FORECAST A CLOSED LOW SOUTH OF THE ALASKA
PENINSULA. RIDGING IS FORECAST FARTHER TO THE NORTH NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN PART
OF THE STATE. TODAY`S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS PRIMARILY OF THE ENSEMBLE
MEAN SOLUTIONS. THE GREATEST WEIGHTS WERE GIVEN TO THE 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND
THE 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN BASED LARGELY ON CONSIDERATIONS OF RECENT SKILL
AND ON ANALOG CORRELATIONS, WHICH MEASURE HOW CLOSELY THE FORECAST PATTERN
MATCHES CASES THAT HAVE OCCURRED IN THE PAST.

FORECAST RIDGING LEADS TO ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR THE WESTERN CONUS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS BEHIND A TROUGH PREDICTED OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL CONUS. THERE
ARE ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE PREDICTED
TROUGH AXIS FOR THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
ALSO FAVORED FOR MOST OF ALASKA UNDERNEATH PREDICTED POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES.

ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO MUCH OF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROUGH PREDICTED OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL
CONUS. IN ADDITION, INFLUXES OF TROPICAL/SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE COULD AFFECT
PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH A DISTURBANCE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC CURRENTLY BEING MONITORED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.
CONVERSELY, BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH PREDICTED RIDGING. ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED OVER
SOUTHERN ALASKA AHEAD OF A CLOSED LOW FORECAST SOUTH OF THE STATE.

TODAY`S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 25% OF TODAY`S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, 15% OF TODAY`S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 5% OF
TODAY`S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10% OF TODAY`S 0Z EUROPEAN
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10% OF YESTERDAY`S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 7, 5% OF TODAY`S OPERATIONAL 0Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 8, 25% OF
TODAY`S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 5% OF YESTERDAY`S 12Z
CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO FAIR
AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS AND FORECAST TOOLS.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 03 - 09 2016

DURING THE WEEK TWO PERIOD, TODAY`S ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS ARE GENERALLY IN
GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE PLACEMENT OF A RIDGE OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND A
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. A CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST NEAR THE ALEUTIANS AND
THE ALASKA PENINSULA WHILE RIDGING AND ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST FOR
MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ON THE
DETAILS OF INDIVIDUAL FEATURES WITHIN THE OVERALL FLOW AMONG SUCCESSIVE RUNS OF
THE DETERMINISTIC GFS. THEREFORE, TODAY`S OFFICIAL WEEK TWO MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND
IS BASED PRIMARILY ON THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE WESTERN CONUS UNDERNEATH
PREDICTED RIDGING. THERE ARE ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
TROUGH PREDICTED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED
AHEAD OF THE PREDICTED TROUGH AXIS FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORED FOR ALASKA UNDERNEATH PREDICTED ABOVE
NORMAL HEIGHTS.

THERE ARE ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR SOUTHWESTERN
ALASKA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROUGH PREDICTED NEAR THE ALEUTIANS. BELOW MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE INTERIOR NORTHWESTERN CONUS AND THE
NORTHERN PLAINS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PREDICTED MEAN RIDGE. CONVERSELY, ABOVE
MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROUGH PREDICTED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.

THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 15% OF TODAY`S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 15% OF TODAY`S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
11, 10% OF TODAY`S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF TODAY`S 0Z
EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 15% OF YESTERDAY`S 12Z EUROPEAN
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10, 20% OF TODAY`S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 5% OF YESTERDAY`S 12Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED
ON DAY 10


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE
TO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEANS OFFSET BY LARGE DISAGREEMENTS
ON INDIVIDUAL FEATURES AMONG THE DETERMINISTIC GFS SOLUTIONS.

FORECASTER: SCOTT HANDEL

NOTES:


AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES.
IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT
ISSUED.

THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE   N-NEAR NORMAL   B-BELOW

THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.

THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
JUNE 16

ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19820530 - 19590523 - 19620519 - 19990605 - 20020506


ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19590524 - 19820531 - 19780531 - 19670604 - 20020505


6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUN 01 - 05 2016

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    B     OREGON      A    B     NRN CALIF   A    B
SRN CALIF   A    B     IDAHO       A    B     NEVADA      A    B
W MONTANA   A    B     E MONTANA   A    B     WYOMING     N    B
UTAH        A    N     ARIZONA     A    N     COLORADO    B    A
NEW MEXICO  B    A     N DAKOTA    N    B     S DAKOTA    N    B
NEBRASKA    B    N     KANSAS      B    A     OKLAHOMA    B    A
N TEXAS     B    A     S TEXAS     B    A     W TEXAS     B    A
MINNESOTA   N    N     IOWA        N    A     MISSOURI    N    A
ARKANSAS    N    A     LOUISIANA   N    A     WISCONSIN   N    N
ILLINOIS    N    A     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    A    N
INDIANA     A    A     OHIO        A    A     KENTUCKY    A    A
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    A    A
VERMONT     A    A     NEW HAMP    A    A     MAINE       A    A
MASS        A    A     CONN        A    A     RHODE IS    A    A
PENN        A    A     NEW JERSEY  A    A     W VIRGINIA  A    A
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    A    A     VIRGINIA    A    A
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    N     AK N SLOPE  A    B
AK ALEUTIAN A    A     AK WESTERN  A    A     AK INT BSN  A    B
AK S INT    A    N     AK SO COAST A    A     AK PNHDL    A    A



8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUN 03 - 09 2016

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    N     OREGON      A    B     NRN CALIF   A    B
SRN CALIF   A    B     IDAHO       A    B     NEVADA      A    B
W MONTANA   A    B     E MONTANA   A    B     WYOMING     A    B
UTAH        A    N     ARIZONA     A    N     COLORADO    N    A
NEW MEXICO  B    A     N DAKOTA    A    B     S DAKOTA    N    B
NEBRASKA    B    B     KANSAS      B    N     OKLAHOMA    B    A
N TEXAS     B    A     S TEXAS     B    A     W TEXAS     B    A
MINNESOTA   B    B     IOWA        B    B     MISSOURI    B    A
ARKANSAS    B    A     LOUISIANA   B    A     WISCONSIN   B    N
ILLINOIS    B    A     MISSISSIPPI B    A     MICHIGAN    B    A
INDIANA     B    A     OHIO        B    A     KENTUCKY    B    A
TENNESSEE   B    A     ALABAMA     B    A     NEW YORK    N    A
VERMONT     N    A     NEW HAMP    N    A     MAINE       N    A
MASS        N    A     CONN        N    A     RHODE IS    N    A
PENN        B    A     NEW JERSEY  N    A     W VIRGINIA  B    A
MARYLAND    B    A     DELAWARE    N    A     VIRGINIA    B    A
N CAROLINA  N    A     S CAROLINA  N    A     GEORGIA     N    A
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    A     AK N SLOPE  A    N
AK ALEUTIAN A    N     AK WESTERN  A    A     AK INT BSN  A    N
AK S INT    A    A     AK SO COAST A    A     AK PNHDL    A    N

                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW

THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.

$$




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