Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2
000
FXUS21 KWNC 231926
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT MAY 23 2016

SYNOPSIS: A STATIONARY FRONT IS PREDICTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE THE GREAT PLAINS
AND THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LOWER 48 STATES THROUGHOUT
MUCH OF THE 3 TO 7 DAY PERIOD. A COLD FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO ENTER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY AND MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND
NORTHERN PLAINS BY SATURDAY. A SERIES OF SURFACE LOWS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP
OVER THE SOUTH COAST OF ALASKA DURING THE 3 TO 7 DAY PERIOD.

HAZARDS

HEAVY RAIN ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL
PLAINS, THU, MAY 26.

HEAVY RAIN ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY,
THU-FRI, MAY 26-27.

SEVERE WEATHER FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, THU-FRI, MAY 26-27.

ENHANCED RISK OF WILDFIRES ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS, THU, MAY 26.

FLOODING IS OCCURRING, IMMINENT, OR LIKELY ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS, THU-FRI, MAY 26-27.

SEVERE DROUGHT ACROSS MUCH OF CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA (AND ADJACENT PARTS OF
ARIZONA AND OREGON), NORTH-CENTRAL WYOMING, AND HAWAII.

DETAILED SUMMARY

FOR THURSDAY MAY 26 - MONDAY MAY 30: A STATIONARY FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STRETCH
ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT PLAINS AND FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EASTWARD
TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE 3 TO 7 DAY PERIOD. SURFACE LOWS ALONG THIS
STATIONARY FRONT MAY BRING HEAVY RAIN TO PARTS OF IOWA AND NEBRASKA ON
THURSDAY, AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
THURSDAY TO FRIDAY. THIS RAIN MAY PROLONG OR EXACERBATE FLOOD CONDITIONS ACROSS
PARTS OF EASTERN TEXAS ALREADY EXPERIENCING FLOOD. SUFFICIENT FORCING AND WARM,
SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AHEAD OF THIS FRONT MAY INCREASE CHANCES
FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HAIL, GUSTY WINDS, AND SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE HIGHLIGHTED AREAS. THE RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER MAY CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON SATURDAY AND THE HIGH PLAINS ON SUNDAY. SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THIS STORM PRECLUDES ANY ADDITIONAL
AREAS FROM BEING IDENTIFIED.



SOME MODELS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A SUBTROPICAL LOW NEAR THE SOUTHEAST AND
SOUTHERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TO UNDERCUT THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE EAST
TOWARD THE END OF THE 3 TO 7 DAY PERIOD. THERE ARE INCREASED CHANCES FOR HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS SOME PARTS OF FLORIDA AND THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE BEGINNING OF
WEEK-2. HOWEVER, THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME REGARDING THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS LOW TO DETERMINE ANY ADDITIONAL HAZARDS AT THIS TIME.



AN AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE CONUS ON THURSDAY. HIGH SURFACE WINDS AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH COMBINED WITH
DRY FUELS, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND ANOMALOUSLY WARM TEMPERATURES MAY
SUPPORT ENHANCED WILDFIRE RISK ON THURSDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY. ELEVATED WILDFIRE CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY WITH LINGERING DRY CONDITIONS. LOW PROBABILITIES PRECLUDE THE EXTENSION
OF WILDFIRE RISK INTO ANOTHER DAY AT THIS TIME.

FOR TUESDAY MAY 31 - MONDAY JUNE 06: SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
MAY EXTEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF WEEK-2. THIS PATTERN MAY SUPPORT HEAVY RAIN
ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST. DUE TO HIGH UNCERTAINTY, AN ASSOCIATED RAIN
HAZARD CANNOT BE SPECIFIED AT THIS TIME.



ACCORDING TO THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR (ISSUED MAY 19), SEVERE, OR GREATER
INTENSITY, DROUGHT COVERS 4.07 PERCENT OF THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR AREAS
(INCLUDING ALASKA, HAWAII, AND PUERTO RICO), DOWN FROM 4.49 PERCENT LAST WEEK.
THIS IS THE LOWEST COVERAGE SINCE OCTOBER 2010. A VISUAL COMPARISON BETWEEN THE
TWO LATEST U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR MAPS REVEALS ONE-CATEGORY IMPROVEMENTS IN
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA (D2 TO D1), WESTERN NEVADA (D3 TO D2), AND UTAH
(D1 TO D0).

FORECASTER: MELISSA OU

$$



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.