Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 221105
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
604 AM EST SUN JAN 22 2017


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JAN 22/1200 UTC THRU JAN 25/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

...EASTERN U.S...

A DEEP AND GRADUALLY PROGRESSING CLOSED LOW...PRECEDED BY A BROAD
AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS AND WARM ADVECTION...WILL DRIVE BOTH SEVERE
WEATHER AND FLASH FLOOD THREATS OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES FROM
EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE WAS FAIRLY GOOD
LARGE SCALE AGREEMENT GIVEN THE STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING...BUT
CERTAINLY A LOT OF DETAIL AND CONVECTIVE DETAIL THE INCREASES THE
COMPLEXITY. THE HI-RES MODELS HAVE BEEN UNDER-PLAYING THE SOUTHERN
EXTENT OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL IN THIS PATTERN...AND JUDGING BY
OBSERVATIONAL EVIDENCE WPC CONTINUED TO FAVOR SOURCES SUCH AS THE
GEM REGIONAL...NAM CONUS NEST...AND EXPERIMENTAL NAM CONUS NEST
THAT REPRESENT A BETTER EXTRAPOLATED FORECAST FROM THE EARLY RADAR
TRENDS AND THE HRRR...ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES AND FLORIDA.

WE ALSO NOTED A TREND TOWARD A DEEPER SURFACE LOW TRACKING FARTHER
SOUTH...REACHING EASTERN ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON. WE INCREASED QPF
ALONG THIS TRACK...BUT MAY INCREASE IT FURTHER FOR THE FINAL
FORECAST IN COORDINATION WITH WFO HUN AND OTHERS. THE QPF WAS
BASED ON A BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF AND 00Z NAM CONUS NEST.


...WESTERN U.S...

THE BARRAGE OF SYSTEMS INTO THE WESTERN U.S. CONTINUES
SUNDAY...WITH 12-HOUR HEIGHT FALLS OF AT LEAST 40 METERS EXTENDING
BORDER TO BORDER / CANADA TO MEXICO...AND SUPPORTING MEANINGFUL
PRECIPITATION FOR NEARLY EVERY LOCATION WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE EVENT WILL AGAIN BE ESPECIALLY
WELL FOCUSED IN CALIFORNIA...WITH A LOCAL MAXIMUM OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE AND MOISTURE FLUX PROGRESSING STEADILY FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. GEFS 850-700 MB U-WIND COMPONENT /
ONSHORE FLOW / ANOMALIES ARE MORE GREATLY FOCUSED ALONG THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST  AND THE SOUTHERN SIERRAS TODAY. TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.00 INCH AGAIN PUSH INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA...WITH ANOMALOUS VALUES APPROACH A HALF INCH EXPANDING
NOT QUITE TO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA BY MORNING MORNING. OROGRAPHIC
ASCENT WILL ENHANCE PRECIPITATION INTENSITY IN THE FAVORED COASTAL
MOUNTAIN CHAINS...SOUTHERN SIERRAS...AND TO SOME EXTENT IN THE
INTERIOR GREAT BASIN...INCLUDING NORTHERN NEVADA WHERE WE BOOSTED
FORECAST TOTALS A BIT OWING TO SOME OF THE CONSENSUS TOOLS AND
ANALOG EVENTS. OVERALL...THERE WAS LITTLE LARGE SCALE CHANGE TO
THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST...AND MODEL QPF AGREEMENT IS ABOVE
AVERAGE. WE DID FAVOR SOME OF OUR DOWN-SCALED CONSENSUS TOOLS AND
THE GEFS REFORECAST DATA TO YIELD LOCAL INCREASES...ADDING ABOUT
0.10 TO 0.50 INCHES OF AREAL AVERAGE PRECIPITATION ABOVE THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST IN PARTS OF CA/NV/UT.

THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT APPEARS PARTICULARLY PRONOUNCED TODAY ALONG
THE CALIFORNIA COAST FROM MONTEREY TO SAN DIEGO...BUT ESPECIALLY
IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. MULTIPLE HI-RES MODELS PRODUCE HOURLY RAIN
RATES GREATER THAN 0.75 INCHES NEAR AND SOUTH OF SANTA
BARBARA...AND GIVEN RECENT STORM SYSTEMS IN RAPID SUCCESSION...THE
AREA MAY BE MORE PRONE TO RAPID RUNOFF. IN SANTA BARBARA AND
VENTURA COUNTIES THE NATIONAL WATER MODEL...FORCED BY GFS
QPF...PRODUCES A TRANSITION FROM MUCH BELOW NORMAL STREAM FLOW TO
HIGH FLOW IN ONLY A 3 HOUR WINDOW EARLY SUNDAY.


DAYS 2 AND 3...


...WEST COAST...

A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW OFF THE OR/NORTHERN CA COAST EARLY ON DAY 2
OPENS UP AND CROSSES THE CENTRAL CA COAST LATE. DEVELOPING
CONVECTION COULD RESULT IN HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CA AFFECTED BY RAINFALL EXPECTED ON DAY 1.
SHORT WAVE ENERGY SOUTH OF THE CLOSED LOW IMPACTS MAINLY SOUTHERN
CA DURING DAY 3. FOR THE MOST PART...THERE WAS GENERALLY GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP...SO THE WPC QPF
WAS BASED PRIMARILY ON A BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF/GFS.

THE CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN CA
WILL SEND THE LAST OF THE ORGANIZED SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN THE
STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CA DURING DAY 2. THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE WILL HAVE MOVED EAST AND WEAKENED...BUT THE LOW LEVEL
WESTERLY FLOW WILL FOCUS 0.50/0.75 INCH PRECIPTABLE WATER AIR OVER
THIS AREA. AS THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY CROSSES SOUTHERN CA...MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOWED STEEPENING LAPSE RATES RESULT IN MARGINAL
INSTABILITY AND CONVECTION ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF LOS
ANGELES...RIVERSIDE AND SAN DIEGO COUNTIES. THERE IS A MULTI MODEL
SIGNAL FOR 1.00 TO 1.50 INCHES OF QPF IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND
GIVEN THE EXPECTED HEAVY RAINFALL FROM DAY 1...THE ADDITIONAL QPF
COULD RESULT IN A NEW ROUND OF FLOODING. WITH THIS IN MIND...A
SLIGHT RISK AREAS REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THESE AREAS FOR DAY 2.

FURTHER NORTH...THE CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW OPENS INTO A SHORT WAVE
THAT DROPS ALONG THE CA COAST DURING DAY 2. BY THIS TIME...THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE WITH THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER WILL HAVE LONG BEEN
SCOURED FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT THE LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW
WILL FOCUS THE 0.50 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER AIR ON THE CA COASTAL
RANGE...AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA RANGE.
THE UPSLOPE IS MOST EFFICIENT ACROSS THE SIERRA NEVADA RANGE...
AND THERE IS A MULTI MODEL SIGNAL FOR AN AXIS OF 0.50 TO 1.00
INCHES OF QPF IN THIS AREA. LESSER AMOUNTS WERE STRETCHED ALONG
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CA COASTAL RANGE...WITH LOCAL 1.00 INCH
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE OVER NORTHWEST CA.

THE LAST OF THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY CROSSES CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
EARLY DURING DAY 3. PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS DROP BELOW 0.50
INCHES...SO MOISTURE BECOMES THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR QPF IN THESE
AREAS. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL FOCUS THE REMAINING MOISTURE IN THE
COLUMN ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN...PRODUCING LOCAL 0.10 TO 0.25 INCHES
OF QPF ALONG THE CA COAST RANGE.


...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES/SOUTHWEST...

SHORT WAVE ENERGY CROSSING SOUTHERN CA EARLY ON DAY 2 AFFECTS THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES DURING DAY 2...AND THE COMBINATION
OF SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT AN UPSLOPE FLOW RESULTS IN LOCALLY HEAVY
QPF AMOUNTS. THERE WAS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE TRACK
OF THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY DURING DAY 2...SO THE WPC QPF WAS BASED
ON A BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF/GFS.

STRONG SHORT WAVE ENERGY CROSSING SOUTHERN CA EARLY ON DAY 2 MOVES
OVER AZ/NM AND SOUTHERN CO BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. AHEAD OF THE
SHORT WAVE...THE REMNANTS OF AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER PLUME CROSSES
WESTERN AZ EARLY ON DAY 2...AS A LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW
TRANSPORTS 0.50 TO 0.75 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER AIR INTO AZ/NM.
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW FOCUSES THE ENHANCED MOISTURE IN THE MOGOLLON
RIM IN AZ...WHERE THERE WAS A MULTI MODEL SIGNAL FOR 0.75 TO 1.25
INCHES OF QPF (WITH THE 00Z ECMWF REPRESENTING THE HIGHER END OF
THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE).  FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE WASATCH RANGE
IN UT AND THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS IN SOUTHWEST CO...THE MOISTURE
PLUME IS NOT AS ROBUST...BUT THE COMBINATION OF LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL MAKE THE MOST OF
THE MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN TO PRODUCE 0.50 TO 1.00 INCH QPF
AMOUNTS...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE SAN JUAN RANGE (DUE TO
MORE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW).

HEAVY SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN AZ AND
SOUTH CENTRAL CO ON DAY 2. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST SUITE OF WPC
WINTER WEATHER PRODUCTS FOR MORE INFORMATION.


...NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES...

A LONG WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS LATE
DURING DAY 2...AND A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY LATE ON DAY 2 INTO DAY 3...BEFORE IT
TRACKS TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW FOLLOWS A
SIMILAR PATH...AND INFLOW AHEAD OF THE LOWER AND MID LEVEL SYSTEMS
INFUSES MOISTURE INTO A DEVELOPING MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICALLY
FORCED LIFT. THE 00Z GFS WAS A BIT FASTER THAN THE CONSENSUS WITH
THE CLOSED MID LEVEL SYSTEM...AND THE A BIT FURTHER EAST WITH THE
MID LEVEL FORCING. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH THE
MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURES...AND THE WPC QPF WAS BASED MORE ON THE 00Z
ECMWF AND LESS ON THE 00Z GFS FOR DAY 3.

MOISTURE IS TRANSPORTED AHEAD OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING
FROM THE ROCKIES AND ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW TRACKING FROM CO
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE MID AND UPPER MS
VALLEY. A 25 TO 35 KNOT LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW TRANSPORTS 0.50
INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER AIR IN THE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INTO A
DEVELOPING BAND OF FRONTOGENETICALLY FORCED LIFT STRETCHING FROM
WESTERN SD ACROSS NORTHERN IA/SOUTHERN MN INTO SOUTHWEST WI. IN
THIS BANDING...AN AXIS OF 0.50 TO 0.75 INCHES OF QPF WAS
PLACED...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS STRETCHED INTO THE REMAINDER OF WI
AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MI. THE QPF AMOUNTS IN THIS AXIS WERE MORE
CLOSELY ON THE 00Z ECMWF...WHICH APPEARED TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE
ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE BEST MID LEVEL FORCING.

LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE ACROSS A PORTION OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON DAY 3. PLEASE REFER
TO THE LATEST SUITE OF WPC WINTER WEATHER PRODUCTS FOR MORE
INFORMATION.


...MID ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST...

A STRONG CLOSED MID LEVEL SYSTEM TRACKS FROM THE INTERIOR MID
ATLANTIC TO THE THE NORTHERN DELMARVA ON DAY 2...AND ITS ATTENDANT
SURFACE LOW FOLLOWS A SIMILAR TRACK. THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS ON
DAY 3 AS IT TRACKS FROM THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC TO NOVA SCOTIA
BY THE END OF PERIOD. STRONG DYNAMIC LIFT...DEEPENING MOISTURE
TRANSPORTED ON A STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE AND MID LEVEL SYSTEMS COULD RESULT IN HEAVY
TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC
INTO COASTAL NEW ENGLAND. THE 00Z ECMWF SPED UP SOLUTION TO BETTER
REFLECTION THE FASTER TIMING OF THE 00Z GFS...SO THE WPC QPF WAS
BASED ON A BLEND OF THESE TWO SOLUTIONS.

AS THE CLOSED MID LEVEL SYSTEM AND ITS SURFACE LOW TRACK ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC ON DAY 2...THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE SYSTEMS
RESULTS IN AN UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS FROM
WV DOWN ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN TN/WESTERNMOST NC.
THERE WAS A MULTI MODEL SIGNAL FOR 1.00 TO 1.25 INCHES OF QPF
ACROSS EASTERN TN/WESTERN NC...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS FURTHER NORTH
INTO WV.

AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE SURFACE LOW CROSSING
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON DAY 2...A LOW LEVEL EASTERLY INFLOW
TRANSPORTS 1.25 INCH PRECIPITABLE (WHICH IS ABOUT TWO STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN) ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC INTO
THE NYC METRO AREA BEFORE 24/00Z. THE STRONG LOW LEVEL
FORCING...DEEPENING MOISTURE AND MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY (AS
SEEN ON 00Z GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS ACROSS EASTERN MD/DE/SOUTHERN NJ)
WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE LOW TOPPED FORCED CONVECTION ALONG AND
JUST ABOVE THE WARM FRONT...RESULTING AN AXIS OF 1.75 TO 2.25
INCHES OF QPF FROM THE CENTRAL NJ COAST ACROSS THE NYC METRO AREA
AND LONG ISLAND INTO SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND. IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT BOTH THE 00Z UKMET...AND ESPECIALLY THE 00Z NAM...SHOWED QPF
AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 3.00 INCHES ALONG THIS AXIS. GIVEN THE LACK
OF DEEPER INSTABILITY...THESE AMOUNTS COULD END UP BEING ON THE
HIGHER SIDE OF WHAT ACTUALLY OCCURS.

THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ACROSS URBANIZED AREAS OF
NORTHEAST NY AND ACROSS THE NYC METRO AREA AS AS LOW AS 1.50
INCHES. WHILE INSTABILITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE ESPECIALLY DEEP
(EVEN AS IT IS ELEVATED)...HOURLY RATES IN THE BEST OF THE FORCING
COULD APPROACH THE LOWER END OF THE FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE. BECAUSE
OF THIS...A SLIGHT RISK AREA WAS PLACED OVER THESE AREAS FOR DAY 2.

AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS FROM OFF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST
TO A POSITION SOUTHEAST OF NYC BY 24/12Z...ITS WARM FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO SNAKE ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND...TERMINATING OFF
THE SOUTHERN ME COAST...WHERE IT COULD INTERACT WITH AN IN SITU
COASTAL FRONT. THE CONTINUED 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL EAST SOUTHEAST
INFLOW TRANSPORTS 1.00/1.25 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER AIR ALONG THE
FRONT. ELEVATED INSTABILITY SHOULD BE LESS ALONG THE FRONT THAN IT
WAS ACROSS THE NYC METRO AREA...BUT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL AID
IN DEVELOPING LINES OF LOW TOPPED SHOWERS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL
ALONG THE FRONT. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A STRIPE OF 1.75 TO
2.25 INCHES OF QPF STRETCHING ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR
FROM KPVD TO KBOS...WITH A MULTI MODEL SIGNAL FOR HIGHEST AMOUNTS
TO OCCUR ACROSS EASTERN MA. THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES
ALONG THIS AXIS AREA GENERALLY ABOVE THE WPC QPF...BUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR URBAN FLOODING NECESSITATES A RETENTION OF A
MARGINAL RISK HERE (EVEN IF WHAT OCCURS IS MORE FLOOD VS FLASH
FLOOD...GIVEN THE LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION).

AS THE CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW TRACKS FROM THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC
EARLY ON DAY 3 TO A POSITION OF THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST...IT BEGINS TO OPEN UP AND TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT. THE
SURFACE LOW DEEPENS DURING THIS TIME...TRACKING TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. AS THIS OCCURS...THE 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL
EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW MOVES NORTH INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WHERE
AFFECTS MAINLY CENTRAL AND EASTERN ME. VERY LITTLE OF THE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE PRESENT AS THE LOW LEVEL FORCING
CROSSES NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING DAY 3...SO HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS
(GENERALLY BETWEEN 1.50 AND 2.00 INCHES) SHOULD BE CONFINED TO
EASTERN ME. THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD VALUES AREA GENERALLY ABOVE
2.00 INCHES...AND GIVEN THE LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION...FLASH
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER...LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE
DUE TO PONDING...RESULTING IN FLOOD VS FLASH FLOOD SCENARIO.


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML


BURKE/HAYES

24HR QP VT 23/12Z
 0.01 527886 527874 527862 526855 525851 522844 521839 518835
      514830 503821 494817 483813 479814 476812 471808 462800
      455798 447799 443804 442808 443810 440810 437807 432802
      428783 421750 422741 425739 429738 435741 441745 446750
      449756 451753 450748 448744 448739 445730 440728 430715
      428709 424714 422720 420723 417722 412701 408681 405673
      404670 401669 389676 380686 370698 361707 349717 339724
      329731 324735 317738 314740 312743 308749 304755 302757
      298759 280762 259774 248781 243786 241788 228807 227827
      246842 265854 274872 280898 291916 297918 304921 314920
      318921 320923 324928 331937 333940 333945 336950 340955
      342963 345970 350974 355978 361978 375972 386963 390958
      393952 397939 400922 403896 401878 405865 422859 429853
      439842 443841 445839 449839 451841 459847 464853 466855
      469856 474852 478857 481867 481876 481888 482900 483907
      487912 491915 498914 512918 518918 522913 524905 525897
      527886
 0.01 504265 509233 510217 508215 508211 510205 511196 509192
      507187 506183 506180 504158 505143 504137 501131 497123
      494117 491114 483113 476121 473120 472118 471113 468105
      463104 461107 464117 463123 464129 460133 454132 451131
      450129 451123 455122 456120 454112 452102 449098 446095
      438090 433087 430084 425075 420067 413061 405056 402055
      398057 394058 389058 383058 380060 375059 371058 369054
      367052 364051 361052 357055 356066 354073 356076 357083
      355086 354100 355102 354104 352107 350106 346103 343100
      339097 336099 334118 333125 334130 335136 337139 341142
      339147 336151 332153 324154 319152 313151 307151 303151
      299152 297156 296160 299165 303172 308179 310184 312188
      312201 316209 322218 324221 328224 334229 344232 349234
      353236 359237 363237 372242 376246 380249 398258 408263
      416266 426266 434266 445268 457272 467276 472279 476281
      480281 483279 486277 487272 490271 494272 498271 504265
 0.25 492199 493193 491188 487185 483186 479188 476191 473201
      472203 470203 465202 461204 459208 457214 456221 460224
      464222 469215 471211 475212 484210 487208 490203 492199
 0.25 499883 499880 499878 498875 497875 497878 497881 497883
      498885 499883
 0.25 474255 473249 470246 474242 475239 473237 469238 465240
      460240 450237 446236 442236 433237 429233 426230 431220
      431214 429209 420191 420183 422177 424166 424159 425152
      427149 428147 429150 430156 434159 442164 445169 445173
      444175 440176 437181 436188 438195 440194 442190 448181
      453175 453169 451165 448155 442145 441133 442127 445122
      446114 444109 439104 436102 432097 429094 427094 427099
      425102 422103 418107 414109 410106 409101 407097 404095
      402100 399101 395099 394095 392095 392101 393106 392116
      400122 409121 412133 411138 408142 405144 401146 386138
      384133 379132 379119 378116 375116 372118 362120 361123
      359125 355127 353131 352136 353142 349150 348157 345161
      335161 322159 317159 314164 314167 315171 319182 322188
      325198 327207 330212 333215 342220 352224 362230 371234
      381237 387243 395247 401250 406252 416253 428255 438256
      448257 456258 463259 470258 474255
 0.25 403706 403699 402693 399689 396687 389690 381697 376702
      369709 357718 351723 343728 329738 322743 316749 306760
      301766 296768 291768 282769 274773 266777 260782 248791
      236807 235820 248825 271834 291852 293872 298884 295895
      300895 313884 318884 320889 321895 326902 331905 337906
      340908 345914 345936 349943 355943 358942 373938 380933
      384925 387915 388909 387902 385890 385877 383868 385859
      388850 390847 394845 402839 405837 407834 408823 407816
      405812 401808 399804 400800 404792 405787 404783 395766
      397758 402749 404746 405741 404731 403706
 0.25 387180 387179 385178 385177 383176 382174 381174 380176
      381179 381180 382181 383182 384182 385182 386181 387180
 0.25 380096 378090 376089 377086 378082 379078 376072 375065
      370063 367063 368066 370073 370080 373086 375087 375091
      375096 376099 380096
 0.25 365200 364199 363197 362197 361196 360194 359194 357193
      356193 354192 353193 354194 355195 355196 357198 358199
      360199 362200 364201 365200
 0.25 354120 354119 354117 352116 351115 349115 347116 347118
      348120 350121 352122 353122 354121 354120
 0.50 486200 486199 485199 485200 486200
 0.50 484202 484200 483201 484202 484202
 0.50 446246 446242 444240 438241 435242 431242 427237 420233
      417231 417226 418217 418212 417209 414207 415201 414192
      411190 409186 409182 410178 412174 415173 417163 421147
      420144 418145 412148 400156 398171 396170 396174 398176
      399180 399184 398188 395190 391189 385186 378181 376175
      374165 375155 379151 384151 386153 384159 381167 384172
      387175 389175 391172 393168 398154 392151 388144 384139
      378134 377125 375122 372122 369130 364132 361133 361137
      363140 363145 355156 357164 352170 350171 346170 343164
      330162 325161 320162 319165 319168 322175 325182 328194
      331201 335207 339213 346217 359224 367228 374229 382231
      387236 391241 400245 416249 423250 430251 440249 444248
      446246
 0.50 433111 434109 431107 429108 428111 427108 425108 421111
      417112 412111 409109 407104 404105 400109 399113 401116
      406117 410117 412120 416128 420128 423124 428118 433111
 0.50 420202 419201 418200 416201 417203 419202 420202
 0.50 403228 403226 402223 400222 398222 397221 395220 393219
      393218 392218 391218 390219 389220 389222 391224 393225
      393226 394226 396227 398227 399228 401228 403229 403228
 0.50 398700 396697 392696 385702 378708 368714 354725 339733
      333739 325743 318749 312757 307763 300770 283771 267781
      253792 246797 243801 241805 240810 242815 247813 251813
      255815 257818 261821 266822 274824 278826 281831 288836
      291843 295845 296851 298855 302855 305847 310839 312835
      316832 321834 322841 320852 318862 315866 312867 309869
      307873 304882 303887 306885 320873 323873 326874 328877
      328884 329891 345895 353898 359904 362909 362912 360914
      356917 354922 350931 350935 353938 361935 368930 376927
      380923 381919 383913 383906 382900 379896 374888 367884
      365882 362879 368873 371862 372857 375853 386838 389830
      390822 388815 387809 388802 389799 391796 395793 397788
      393779 386772 384767 385762 389754 394745 396725 398711
      398700
 0.50 368203 367201 365198 363195 361194 358192 356191 352190
      352193 353195 354198 357199 360201 362202 365204 368203
 1.00 426244 426242 426241 424239 423238 421237 419237 418237
      417237 416238 415239 415240 415241 416244 418245 420245
      421245 422245 423246 425245 426244
 1.00 413224 405208 402201 402198 400196 392196 385191 374181
      366178 361175 356176 352182 349183 347181 345172 344167
      340165 337165 332164 325163 335193 337202 341209 348214
      355218 363222 369223 373222 375219 376216 373213 369212
      363206 355201 353199 350194 350191 351186 359190 367196
      377207 393215 400218 404218 407220 407225 410227 413224
 1.00 385749 385742 383736 381732 377728 373726 369724 361729
      341737 328749 323751 320755 320757 322758 325761 324772
      328777 329783 328789 331794 335796 337801 337808 336819
      334822 335828 335834 335840 327857 328862 331866 338873
      341876 347876 352869 356861 363853 368845 373839 377835
      378832 377829 375823 373816 373810 374805 379798 382795
      385791 386786 386782 380783 376786 371794 361793 361789
      363784 366773 369766 380758 383754 385749
 1.00 375143 376141 376139 376137 375134 375132 375130 375127
      373127 372129 372131 372134 371136 371138 371140 371143
      373144 375144 375143
 1.00 365160 366157 365155 365154 363153 361154 361155 360156
      361157 361159 362160 364160 365160
 1.00 361927 359926 357927 356930 357930 358930 359929 361927
 1.00 348771 347769 345768 344770 344772 346774 348772 348771
 1.00 308784 307782 305782 299785 291793 283800 273807 269811
      265815 270813 275810 278809 281811 284817 290816 289812
      287806 289801 297794 306786 308784
 1.00 306823 305820 301819 299819 297819 295822 295826 296830
      297833 297836 299840 301840 301838 302834 302830 303827
      305825 306823
 1.00 297777 296775 293775 289775 286776 283777 281779 279781
      278784 281786 283786 287786 291785 292784 296782 297779
      297777
 1.50 402214 401207 399203 390197 383190 379187 373184 369181
      363179 360179 355182 356186 360189 368195 376202 380205
      386207 394213 399216 402214
 1.50 380752 380750 380748 379746 379745 378744 377743 375743
      373743 372744 370745 369748 369749 368750 369750 371752
      372752 374752 376753 377753 378754 380753 380752
 1.50 367219 367216 365213 361208 353201 350196 348190 346183
      345177 344171 341166 335167 329164 332175 336187 339199
      341205 346209 351212 356216 361219 367219
 1.50 368804 368800 366800 361802 358805 355809 351813 349818
      350826 350829 349832 350837 353841 358843 357848 358851
      360850 362845 363840 361840 360836 362831 366829 367827
      367823 366818 367806 368804
 1.50 360781 359779 359778 357779 356780 354781 353782 352782
      351784 350784 350787 351789 353789 353788 355787 356786
      358784 358783 359781 360781
 1.50 350742 351740 349738 347736 344738 340742 337747 335754
      336758 336767 336769 338770 341764 344759 346754 348748
      350742
 1.50 357852 356851 354852 353854 352855 351857 353857 355855
      356853 357852
 2.00 399213 398208 396203 389199 383192 376187 368182 363181
      359181 357185 359188 367192 373198 381203 390207 396212
      399213
 2.00 365216 362212 357207 350199 346187 345180 344173 342168
      339168 338170 335170 334167 328166 333173 338185 340197
      343204 346207 353211 356214 361218 365216
 2.00 361818 362816 361814 359815 357816 357817 356819 358820
      359820 361819 361818
 2.00 347745 346743 346741 346740 345741 344743 343745 342746
      341748 340751 341753 342755 344754 345752 345751 346750
      346747 346746 347745
 3.00 383197 381194 378190 375188 371186 366183 361183 360186
      364189 369191 372193 375196 380199 383197
 3.00 347203 348201 348199 348198 347196 347194 347193 346191
      345190 344191 343192 343193 342195 343195 343197 344200
      345202 345203 347203 347203
 3.00 344182 344180 344178 344175 343173 343171 343170 341170
      341173 340175 339177 339179 339180 340181 341182 342184
      344182
 4.00 374191 373189 373188 371187 369186 368186 366185 364185
      363186 364187 366188 367188 369189 369190 371191 372191
      374191
 4.00 346198 344195 344196 346198 346198
 4.00 343180 344178 343177 342177 342179 343181 343180

24HR QP VT 24/12Z
 0.01 422636 430638 437636 449635 453639 456645 460651 463658
      468671 473685 477696 479703 481711 482723 483733 482737
      482743 483753 482771 482779 480785 479791 476796 472809
      471818 471822 472824 477826 482826 490825 492827 496826
      501824 505823 506825 511829 514835 515854 515859 514862
      512867 508877 505883 499883 486885 478885 471885 460883
      454884 447885 433886 412878 407877 401876 393872 386870
      381867 368865 357863 351859 348855 339847 338839 337834
      334822 335816 335811 335806 332802 332795 338786 342780
      346776 354768 359765 365765 369761 371756 372753 371749
      369748 365749 358754 351759 347763 342767 338771 329779
      321787 317792 315794 312794 302791 299788 294786 288781
      287778 285778 280779 275781 264788 255795 246801 234806
      229806 226801 224797 224792 227783 241763 246759 250754
      257747 272733 288719 300711 304707 311705 332691 342685
      352680 362673 369667 386647
 0.01 558034 558024 557016 554004 551991 547982 544976 540972
      536971 533973 528973 523976 520980 517983 503998 503005
      504012 504021 506027 508041 511053 513058 516063 523070
      530077 534080 539081 543080 546075 549069 549063 553049
      557037 558034
 0.01 510162 510134 504114 500105 497096 495071 493061 491061
      489065 489070 487073 482069 479071 478076 477089 477094
      474093 471086 469073 468068 469063 473038 474032 475025
      476020 477013 477007 478002 477998 477994 460963 456957
      454956 451952 447946 443942 438942 436947 431954 428959
      428963 424971 419980 417990 413011 399039 395046 385046
      375045 367045 361045 356047 349050 342053 333055 329057
      330059 333060 335063 335066 333071 331073 323076 319082
      317084 314084 309085 305084 301082 297083 293083 291085
      292089 294090 299095 301099 302104 300126 302135 303145
      299147 294146 292147 294151 296152 296155 294161 287162
      290178 293185 295194 304219 312225 315228 320230 327235
      331243 335251 338254 343256 345258 349261 357265 365270
      373273 380277 386284 396292 403297 410300 415300 418303
      427304 440297 448294 453295 456294 472295 475296 478295
      482296 482291 486280 487275 486271 482263 476260 472252
      470248 470243 470236 467232 460234 455232 452230 446223
      440216 431214 428215 424214 421214 421211 420206 418203
      415204 408204 402202 398199 398192 396177 398168 401157
      404151 405150 406154 408163 414180 416184 419188 421190
      422187 424186 427189 430190 433187 434183 435180 437181
      439185 440193 446199 450202 454204 457197 459193 459189
      459184 460179 461174 463171 470165 471161 471156 469147
      473141 467134 465133 466130 468125 470121 474121 480123
      480127 481135 483145 484166 487172 491179 496184 499188
      503182 505179 506174 510162
 0.01 436177 435174 433174 432171 430173 432176 433179 435179
      436177
 0.01 416142 418140 417137 415139 413141 411143 409145 407147
      405149 406151 408152 410150 412148 414146 416144 416142
      416142
 0.01 332158 331153 330149 329144 326139 325137 321136 319142
      317146 318151 320156 324157 329158 332158
 0.01 289820 288816 285816 283819 279819 275820 270818 266816
      261811 256809 253807 249808 246813 243819 241825 241828
      243831 246835 255842 267849 272851 280850 282849 285846
      285839 284834 285829 287825 289820
 0.25 489859 486855 482852 475847 466843 461844 458847 453851
      450855 445864 446869 450871 461871 471869 477869 482867
      486864 489860 489859
 0.25 465727 465717 463710 461704 459705 455709 453709 450706
      448700 446690 447684 446677 442665 437659 434654 430651
      422647 413648 403649 399651 394654 389659 376671 362685
      347697 331707 316714 306720 298726 292732 289735 288740
      286745 282748 276753 264761 255769 250775 248780 247785
      251786 255784 264780 271776 285768 304759 311757 315757
      320758 326757 337754 345751 359742 366740 371741 375743
      378746 379750 379753 378759 374767 370775 369780 371786
      373791 372798 367802 362813 357821 352829 350834 348839
      348844 353846 358845 361845 366845 368844 375839 378834
      382831 385830 387832 390834 399839 405844 409847 412847
      417844 420842 423839 426837 433834 436830 439825 442815
      445803 449794 453784 455775 459766 461756 462748 463740
      465727
 0.25 447256 449251 447248 442246 433240 418234 417227 417220
      415216 410216 397205 391202 387199 380192 374185 366182
      355182 352186 354190 369200 378207 382211 380213 374209
      366209 361209 357206 353197 350192 346190 344194 344198
      339208 343218 346228 349235 353245 360253 375263 404282
      410282 413277 422274 430273 436268 439264 442259 447256
 0.25 453105 452097 448093 444091 438091 433092 428091 425096
      425103 421109 419111 416111 412110 411108 411104 410095
      409090 409087 411082 415077 418071 417065 416061 413059
      403056 393058 387059 381058 371053 368052 363054 359057
      357062 356069 355078 353084 348086 342086 337086 333088
      331092 327098 323101 319105 317110 317114 320117 331117
      335121 339126 342129 345134 348139 351141 357143 361141
      366139 372139 378140 384142 385148 387153 392153 395149
      401139 397135 396130 398126 403124 413124 418121 420118
      420114 423112 428115 433117 437116 440116 443118 446120
      449116 451112 453105
 0.25 387102 385092 378094 371095 363096 359096 355093 351096
      349099 348104 351108 354111 358112 363112 366110 372104
      376102 381102 384104 387102
 0.25 346180 346174 345169 343165 338163 332163 328161 320158
      315155 310155 306158 305160 308164 311167 318172 325177
      334181 341183 346180
 0.50 458729 457721 455717 448719 444718 442714 441705 440692
      440686 438680 434674 429669 423662 416658 408655 399657
      386666 379671 374676 362691 357699 352705 348712 341717
      329725 322726 318729 313730 310733 301737 294742 288748
      283752 269760 263766 260770 262772 264771 280762 287757
      296756 312751 331743 350738 369735 373736 376737 380741
      384746 385751 386757 385761 383766 382771 380781 383793
      383798 385803 385807 381809 376809 367813 361818 352834
      350839 351842 353843 357841 359839 364834 369827 377822
      381820 384821 392824 402824 411825 418823 425819 430814
      433809 436806 440797 446777 450759 454752 456744 458734
      458729
 0.50 430253 431249 430246 427243 419238 409235 412228 415224
      414219 407222 405227 402229 394228 382227 375222 371219
      366218 361217 357219 357223 358227 366232 370234 374237
      379244 382247 385251 391255 397257 400256 409256 418256
      425255 430253
 0.50 404764 405762 404759 402759 401760 401762 401764 400765
      401766 403766 404764 404764
 0.50 406796 405794 402794 400796 398798 395799 394801 392803
      390806 392806 396805 397804 401802 403802 405799 406796
 0.50 384205 385200 382197 378194 372191 367189 362185 357186
      357188 360189 367189 370194 375200 378204 381205 384205
 0.50 395078 397072 396069 391067 389068 385071 383070 377064
      372060 367059 364061 362067 364072 365074 369077 374080
      378081 381080 386080 388082 391082 394080 395078
 0.50 386122 386120 385119 383119 382120 381120 379121 377123
      376125 377127 378127 380127 382126 384125 384124 386123
      386122
 0.50 367124 366121 363120 358120 351112 347108 345103 342093
      339091 336093 333097 326104 324108 328110 333112 336116
      339121 343123 349125 353128 358130 362128 367124
 0.50 349201 348198 347198 347200 347201 349201 349201
 0.50 344178 344169 342166 338164 330164 325160 317158 312158
      310160 316165 321169 327173 336176 338178 341180 344178
 1.00 436703 434695 431689 426688 421689 418691 416689 412685
      405677 400672 396670 389671 383673 379677 375682 370693
      369699 366705 361715 359721 364724 372730 378732 383733
      391739 395745 399748 409754 413758 417760 419747 422741
      425735 431725 433712 436703
 1.00 437775 437774 436772 435770 433773 432776 430778 430781
      431783 433784 434784 436782 437780 437777 437775 437775
 1.00 430795 430791 428788 427784 426789 425791 423794 422796
      420799 420801 420804 420806 422807 426805 427803 429801
      430797 430795
 1.00 359832 359830 358829 357830 356830 355832 355834 354835
      354837 355837 356837 357836 358834 359833 359832
 1.00 342175 343173 343171 342170 341168 339167 338166 336166
      334166 332165 330166 329166 329168 330169 332170 333170
      335170 336169 337169 339170 340172 341173 342175 342175
 1.00 346114 346112 344110 343109 342109 341109 340109 340111
      340113 342115 342116 343116 345114 346114
 1.00 341102 340100 338102 337104 339105 340104 341102 341102
 1.00 323165 325163 323162 322161 320161 318162 318164 319165
      321165 323165 323165
 1.50 431704 428700 425699 418700 414704 414709 412720 408723
      405725 401733 399738 401741 406742 410740 413730 414725
      416722 422716 427713 430709 431704
 1.50 402699 402690 399685 396680 393677 388676 384678 380683
      377687 373697 370707 370715 372722 375726 379728 389725
      393720 395717 399707 402699
 2.00 426705 424704 422704 421704 420704 419706 418707 417709
      417710 417712 418713 419713 421712 422711 423710 424709
      426708 426706 426705
 2.00 396696 394687 390681 387680 385682 383684 380691 376697
      373704 374708 377717 380720 382720 385717 387714 388710
      390708 395702 396696

24HR QP VT 25/12Z
 0.01 495611 503632 507641 511654 517669 518675 520682 525695
      527704 530712 535733 535758 534772 533785 530806 527818
      523826 520829 518830 519834 524841 527846 529850 533862
      536875 535881 535886 534890 533891 529894 526894 519891
      505886 491876 484872 479867 477866 476867 474873 473879
      473885 474919 474952 473961 474969 476986 476989 478992
      480992 482994 481003 477013 474026 471035 469043 465052
      464060 463065 463077 463083 464087 464092 465095 464100
      463108 461111 451115 444114 439116 433124 427136 424144
      422152 421159 419163 416166 411165 406166 403168 405171
      407175 410178 411183 413186 419192 428192 432193 434195
      436201 437207 436215 434219 430224 425227 421230 417232
      407233 402234 398237 396240 392243 386248 383251 379250
      376252 372251 333240 329238 326235 322228 317219 315215
      314211 316197 313187 311181 310173 311169 313169 318166
      317162 319159 323162 328163 335164 341166 344169 344173
      345176 346181 349184 352184 361185 368183 379185 386184
      402197 405198 408197 405192 398185 389178 386172 386166
      388162 393161 398163 400163 401161 399156 402153 406150
      410150 417145 418142 418138 419130 416128 414129 410131
      407131 403128 401125 396125 389128 383129 379126 378119
      379117 389113 395112 398108 402104 404098 406095 408097
      410101 411106 412110 416111 421106 423102 421097 416095
      414092 412088 411085 408084 398086 391091 383092 375090
      367084 361083 358078 356072 352067 342063 334061 329060
      326057 329053 331052 336051 342051 348049 353050 357051
      361050 364049 367047 372047 378048 381050 388056 390054
      389051 387047 379044 374041 373039 373035 371030 374025
      377017 379011 379007 378004 378996 380984 385962 386956
      387950 391944 392939 392933 391930 390931 386932 381932
      380929 382927 382920 383915 386893
 0.01 386893 386886 388880 388872 389864 392853 395844 398835
      404824 410819 414816 419813 429810 428806 424806 419805
      417804 416801 416798 414795 410794 407797 402804 394814
      387818 384822 379824 376826 370827 363827 357826 356821
      358818 362811 370804 378797 384792 392786 395782 396776
      395768 391763 389757 388750 390741 394732 398727 401721
      399707 396703 393700 386694 382688 382684 382678 384674
      389667 397660 402656 408653 416648 425644 431638 435636
      437632
 0.01 494143 490136 487135 484133 477128 473123 470120 468122
      466127 469136 465139 458144 457150 454158 457165 457170
      461171 464172 467170 481169 485163 485159 482156 480154
      475152 474149 475144 479143 486145 492145 494143
 0.01 488826 487824 487823 485823 483822 482824 484826 485828
      487828 488826
 0.01 353086 354084 354082 352081 350081 348081 347081 346083
      346085 346087 346090 348090 349090 351088 352088 353086
      353086
 0.01 347123 347116 346109 344103 343096 342091 341089 337089
      333090 332092 331097 332101 335106 337109 336112 338117
      341123 347123
 0.01 308920 308917 305919 301923 296928 292932 287936 283940
      275949 268960 264966 264968 268968 280964 285960 287954
      296944 303935 306927 308920 308920
 0.25 512741 511726 509707 507694 505681 502666 499647 490631
      485624 481621 476619 467622 462623 458627 451632 441639
      436644 428651 422657 417661 414665 409672 406680 406686
      409690 412693 415699 418711 422719 424722 428724 438728
      443747 457757 462762 467772 469784 473791 476794 482798
      486800 490799 497794 501788 503783 509764 511752 512741
 0.25 459993 460987 460980 458965 457940 458926 457909 456900
      454889 451878 448873 445870 441863 438854 436843 435840
      433839 430842 424859 423864 423871 423878 422884 420893
      417903 414910 410921 407940 406953 408959 410963 412968
      412972 416980 418983 420988 422993 423000 422013 421022
      422033 424038 427042 434046 441048 445049 449047 451042
      451033 452026 452022 454013 456001 459993
 0.25 376228 377224 375222 373220 370218 367217 364216 362215
      359214 357217 357221 358223 360224 363225 367226 370227
      374228 376228
 0.25 350210 350209 348208 348207 346206 345205 343205 341205
      339205 339208 340209 342210 344210 346210 348210 349210
      350210
 0.50 505740 505729 503724 502717 501697 500686 498671 496662
      493653 490647 485639 482634 477630 474629 471629 461632
      449639 443644 439651 430660 424664 420671 418677 418682
      419688 422695 424706 426710 428711 435711 442713 448715
      452713 456714 456720 456725 459728 463736 468740 473742
      477742 481740 485738 489741 493746 497748 501752 503752
      504748 505740
 0.50 448002 448995 447987 447971 447937 445923 444917 443909
      442903 440895 438892 435890 432892 430896 428903 426914
      426943 423948 421956 422962 424968 428979 431992 433021
      436025 441027 444024 446019 448002
 1.00 487673 485661 482651 477642 472639 464643 457644 451650
      445656 436669 431677 429685 430691 433696 435698 439699
      443696 445693 449690 453691 460694 466696 473700 479699
      485692 487683 487673
 1.50 476666 475660 473655 470652 467651 463650 459652 455655
      452659 446664 442672 443678 446680 454682 463682 473679
      475674 476669 476666
 2.00 461671 461668 461666 460665 459664 458663 456664 455665
      453666 452667 451669 450670 450672 451673 452674 453674
      455675 456675 458675 459674 460674 461671 461671

$$




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