Quantitative Precipitation Statement
Issued by NWS San Diego, CA

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FSUS46 KSGX 221130
QPSSGX

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
330 AM PST SUN JAN 22 2017

PRECIPITATION FORECAST IN INCHES IN 6-HOUR PERIODS...
   [ BEGINNING TIMES FOR EACH PERIOD IN LOCAL TIME...                    ]
   [ FOR EXAMPLE...04THU                                                 ]
   [            ...10THU IS A FORECAST FOR  4 AM TO 10 AM THURSDAY       ]
   [ FOR EXAMPLE...22THU                                                 ]
   [            ...04FRI IS A FORECAST FOR  10 PM THURSDAY TO 4 AM FRIDAY]


...ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...

   04SUN 10SUN 16SUN 22SUN 04MON 10MON 16MON 22MON 04TUE 10TUE 16TUE 22TUE
   10SUN 16SUN 22SUN 04MON 10MON 16MON 22MON 04TUE 10TUE 16TUE 22TUE 04WED

   HUNTINGTON BEACH
   0.20  1.11  0.64  0.21  0.19  0.08  0.01  0.01  0.00  0.10  0.00  0.00
   NEWPORT BEACH
   0.15  1.04  0.67  0.18  0.14  0.13  0.03  0.02  0.01  0.09  0.00  0.00
   LAGUNA BEACH
   0.14  1.08  0.71  0.21  0.16  0.16  0.08  0.03  0.02  0.08  0.06  0.00
   SAN CLEMENTE
   0.12  1.18  0.61  0.23  0.10  0.21  0.13  0.04  0.03  0.04  0.03  0.00


...ORANGE COUNTY INLAND...

   04SUN 10SUN 16SUN 22SUN 04MON 10MON 16MON 22MON 04TUE 10TUE 16TUE 22TUE
   10SUN 16SUN 22SUN 04MON 10MON 16MON 22MON 04TUE 10TUE 16TUE 22TUE 04WED

   ANAHEIM
   0.17  1.45  0.76  0.27  0.27  0.12  0.05  0.00  0.00  0.02  0.02  0.00
   FULLERTON
   0.19  1.43  0.64  0.16  0.26  0.15  0.03  0.02  0.00  0.03  0.02  0.00
   BREA
   0.21  1.64  0.80  0.17  0.29  0.19  0.09  0.01  0.00  0.02  0.02  0.00
   VILLA PARK
   0.17  1.42  0.77  0.30  0.29  0.19  0.05  0.00  0.01  0.02  0.02  0.00


...SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS...

   04SUN 10SUN 16SUN 22SUN 04MON 10MON 16MON 22MON 04TUE 10TUE 16TUE 22TUE
   10SUN 16SUN 22SUN 04MON 10MON 16MON 22MON 04TUE 10TUE 16TUE 22TUE 04WED

   FREMONT CANYON
   0.20  1.53  0.88  0.37  0.39  0.24  0.06  0.01  0.02  0.02  0.01  0.00
   SILVERADO CANYON, 3 MI EAST OF SILVERADO
   0.36  2.23  1.71  0.61  0.45  0.28  0.10  0.01  0.04  0.03  0.02  0.00
   MODJESKA PRESERVE
   0.28  1.81  1.21  0.41  0.30  0.22  0.11  0.01  0.03  0.05  0.04  0.00
   SANTIAGO PEAK
   0.35  2.23  1.80  0.60  0.40  0.32  0.17  0.01  0.05  0.04  0.03  0.00
   SANTA ROSA PLATEAU
   0.11  1.21  1.41  0.37  0.31  0.34  0.17  0.02  0.06  0.26  0.19  0.00


...SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE...

   04SUN 10SUN 16SUN 22SUN 04MON 10MON 16MON 22MON 04TUE 10TUE 16TUE 22TUE
   10SUN 16SUN 22SUN 04MON 10MON 16MON 22MON 04TUE 10TUE 16TUE 22TUE 04WED

   ONTARIO
   0.18  1.32  0.64  0.32  0.26  0.19  0.16  0.01  0.02  0.01  0.01  0.00
   SAN BERNARDINO
   0.10  0.84  0.73  0.24  0.31  0.17  0.09  0.00  0.03  0.00  0.00  0.00
   BEAUMONT
   0.12  0.59  0.65  0.43  0.42  0.37  0.28  0.01  0.08  0.01  0.01  0.00
   RIVERSIDE
   0.10  0.84  0.27  0.20  0.27  0.16  0.10  0.01  0.02  0.00  0.00  0.00
   PERRIS VALLEY CHANNEL
   0.10  0.63  0.41  0.16  0.22  0.21  0.17  0.00  0.06  0.01  0.01  0.00
   PRADO DAM
   0.15  1.21  0.59  0.34  0.34  0.21  0.17  0.04  0.03  0.01  0.01  0.00
   TEMECULA
   0.10  0.54  0.62  0.24  0.34  0.38  0.20  0.02  0.08  0.26  0.20  0.00
   HEMET
   0.13  0.33  0.27  0.28  0.32  0.46  0.14  0.00  0.08  0.05  0.04  0.00


...RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS...

   04SUN 10SUN 16SUN 22SUN 04MON 10MON 16MON 22MON 04TUE 10TUE 16TUE 22TUE
   10SUN 16SUN 22SUN 04MON 10MON 16MON 22MON 04TUE 10TUE 16TUE 22TUE 04WED

   IDYLLWILD
   0.45  1.09  1.41  0.87  0.95  0.94  0.36  0.08  0.11  0.01  0.00  0.00


...COACHELLA VALLEY...

   04SUN 10SUN 16SUN 22SUN 04MON 10MON 16MON 22MON 04TUE 10TUE 16TUE 22TUE
   10SUN 16SUN 22SUN 04MON 10MON 16MON 22MON 04TUE 10TUE 16TUE 22TUE 04WED

   PALM SPRINGS
   0.03  0.24  0.26  0.05  0.06  0.10  0.03  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00
   THERMAL
   0.01  0.02  0.07  0.02  0.00  0.07  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00


...SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...

   04SUN 10SUN 16SUN 22SUN 04MON 10MON 16MON 22MON 04TUE 10TUE 16TUE 22TUE
   10SUN 16SUN 22SUN 04MON 10MON 16MON 22MON 04TUE 10TUE 16TUE 22TUE 04WED

   SAN ANTONIO DAM
   0.44  2.60  1.45  0.68  0.47  0.15  0.13  0.00  0.05  0.04  0.03  0.00
   LYTLE CREEK
   0.53  2.82  1.98  0.66  0.41  0.15  0.10  0.00  0.04  0.01  0.01  0.00
   WRIGHTWOOD
   0.45  2.45  1.77  1.04  0.64  0.16  0.10  0.01  0.08  0.04  0.03  0.00
   LAKE ARROWHEAD
   0.31  1.42  2.01  0.85  0.61  0.30  0.22  0.00  0.10  0.00  0.00  0.00
   BIG BEAR LAKE
   0.26  0.93  1.26  0.89  0.85  0.38  0.30  0.00  0.11  0.01  0.00  0.00
   BIG MORONGO CANYON
   0.07  0.71  1.34  0.37  0.40  0.08  0.07  0.00  0.03  0.01  0.00  0.00


...APPLE AND LUCERNE VALLEYS...

   04SUN 10SUN 16SUN 22SUN 04MON 10MON 16MON 22MON 04TUE 10TUE 16TUE 22TUE
   10SUN 16SUN 22SUN 04MON 10MON 16MON 22MON 04TUE 10TUE 16TUE 22TUE 04WED

   HESPERIA
   0.04  0.36  0.37  0.14  0.09  0.11  0.02  0.00  0.01  0.02  0.00  0.00
   VICTORVILLE
   0.06  0.28  0.19  0.12  0.08  0.09  0.01  0.00  0.00  0.01  0.00  0.00
   APPLE VALLEY
   0.05  0.22  0.16  0.10  0.09  0.09  0.01  0.00  0.00  0.01  0.00  0.00


...SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...

   04SUN 10SUN 16SUN 22SUN 04MON 10MON 16MON 22MON 04TUE 10TUE 16TUE 22TUE
   10SUN 16SUN 22SUN 04MON 10MON 16MON 22MON 04TUE 10TUE 16TUE 22TUE 04WED

   OCEANSIDE
   0.08  0.67  0.73  0.15  0.29  0.32  0.12  0.04  0.05  0.02  0.01  0.00
   MIRAMAR
   0.05  0.26  0.94  0.25  0.33  0.31  0.15  0.08  0.10  0.03  0.02  0.00
   SAN DIEGO INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
   0.04  0.16  0.74  0.15  0.33  0.35  0.15  0.06  0.08  0.04  0.03  0.00
   CHULA VISTA
   0.04  0.07  0.60  0.13  0.34  0.32  0.18  0.05  0.11  0.03  0.02  0.00
   SAN YSIDRO
   0.04  0.07  0.70  0.23  0.37  0.34  0.21  0.06  0.11  0.09  0.07  0.00


...SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS...

   04SUN 10SUN 16SUN 22SUN 04MON 10MON 16MON 22MON 04TUE 10TUE 16TUE 22TUE
   10SUN 16SUN 22SUN 04MON 10MON 16MON 22MON 04TUE 10TUE 16TUE 22TUE 04WED

   FALLBROOK
   0.08  0.72  0.72  0.22  0.44  0.36  0.18  0.09  0.06  0.01  0.01  0.00
   RANCHO BERNARDO
   0.06  0.27  0.76  0.32  0.34  0.46  0.22  0.19  0.11  0.03  0.02  0.00
   LA MESA
   0.05  0.18  0.79  0.19  0.40  0.45  0.19  0.12  0.13  0.04  0.03  0.00
   EL CAJON
   0.05  0.18  0.77  0.21  0.39  0.43  0.19  0.10  0.11  0.05  0.03  0.00


...SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...

   04SUN 10SUN 16SUN 22SUN 04MON 10MON 16MON 22MON 04TUE 10TUE 16TUE 22TUE
   10SUN 16SUN 22SUN 04MON 10MON 16MON 22MON 04TUE 10TUE 16TUE 22TUE 04WED

   PALOMAR MOUNTAIN
   0.14  0.91  1.85  0.82  0.90  0.71  0.36  0.12  0.14  0.07  0.06  0.00
   JULIAN
   0.09  0.34  1.40  0.84  0.88  0.85  0.60  0.27  0.14  0.01  0.01  0.00
   MOUNT LAGUNA
   0.06  0.23  1.55  0.82  0.84  0.95  0.49  0.28  0.10  0.02  0.01  0.00
   CAMPO
   0.06  0.10  0.86  0.52  0.50  0.46  0.26  0.15  0.14  0.02  0.02  0.00


...SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS...

   04SUN 10SUN 16SUN 22SUN 04MON 10MON 16MON 22MON 04TUE 10TUE 16TUE 22TUE
   10SUN 16SUN 22SUN 04MON 10MON 16MON 22MON 04TUE 10TUE 16TUE 22TUE 04WED

   BORREGO SPRINGS
   0.02  0.05  0.18  0.10  0.19  0.30  0.03  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00

$$

DISCUSSION...
THE THIRD AND MOST POWERFUL OF THE STORMS TO IMPACT SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA IN THIS SEQUENCE OF STORMS IS CENTERED OFF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST ARE MOSTLY TO SPEED UP BY A FEW HOURS THE ARRIVAL OF THE
MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TODAY.

A PLUME OF SEASONALLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES (1.35
INCH...OR 300 PERCENT OF NORMAL) WILL BE DIRECTED INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THIS MOISTURE WILL BE LIFTED
STRONGLY ALONG SOUTH FACING MOUNTAIN SLOPES THIS AFTERNOON...AND
SOUTHWEST SLOPES THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH SIGNIFICANT OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT OF PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY IN THE SAN GABRIEL AND
SAN BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS. PEAK THREE-HOURLY RAINFALL COULD EXCEED
3 INCHES.

SNOW LEVELS NEAR 5000 FEET EARLY THIS MORNING WILL RISE TO AROUND
6500 FEET DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SNOW LEVELS WILL
FALL QUICKLY FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...
TO AROUND 4000 TO 4500 FEET BY MONDAY MORNING. SNOW LEVELS WILL
FALL TO AROUND 3000 TO 3500 FEET FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY.

FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW FOR
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE COLDEST MID LEVEL AIR...WITH 500 MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND -30 C...WILL ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING
THE DAY ON MONDAY. THIS WILL FURTHER DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATER ON MONDAY THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY WITH SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE.

FORECAST RAINFALL THROUGH TUESDAY...

COAST..............2 TO 2.5 INCHES.
VALLEYS............2.5 TO 3.5 INCHES.
MOUNTAINS..........3.5 TO 6 INCHES. ISOLATED 8+ INCHES.
UPPER DESERTS......0.75 TO 1.5 INCHES.
LOWER DESERTS......0.25 TO 1 INCH.

EXPECTED RAINFALL THROUGH MONDAY COULD BRING ADDITIONAL FLOODING
ALONG THE SAN DIEGO RIVER. THE LATEST CNRFC FORECAST IS FOR THE
RIVER TO REACH FLOOD STAGE AT 2 AM PST MONDAY MORNING. THE SANTA
MARGARITA RIVER IS EXPECTED TO EXCEED ACTION STAGE BY 10 PM PST
THIS EVENING...WHICH WOULD HAVE IMPACTS TO SURFACE STREETS ALONG
THE RIVER ON CAMP PENDLETON. OTHER AREAS OF CONCERN WILL BE THE
WHITEWATER BASIN IN THE COACHELLA VALLEY AND THE TIJUANA RIVER
BASIN ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THESE WATERWAYS WILL LIKELY
EXPERIENCE FLOWS THAT MAY HAVE IMPACTS TO TRANSPORTATION...
PEOPLE...AND OTHER INTERESTS IN THEIR RESPECTIVE FLOOD PLAINS.

EVEN THE SLOWER-TO-RESPOND SAN LUIS REY RIVER IS EXPECTED TO HAVE
SIGNIFICANT FLOW WHICH COULD IMPACT LOW WATER CROSSINGS IN THE
UPPER WATERSHED...AND THE NORMALLY DRY MOJAVE RIVER COULD SEE
SOME WATER COVERING MOST OF THE CHANNEL FOR A TIME SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.

FLASH FLOODING IN OTHER PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA IS POSSIBLE AS
WELL. THE SYSTEM WILL START OUT WITH A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...THEN BECOME MORE SHOWERY
WITH SOME OF THE SHOWERS HAVING BRIEFLY MORE INTENSE RAINFALL.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...MAINLY MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.

$$

17



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