Satellite Precipitation Estimates (TXUS20 KWBC)
Issued by NWS

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000
TXUS20 KNES 280131
SPENES
ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 07/28/15 0130Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-15: 0111ZDS
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LOCATION...W NORTH DAKOTA...E MONTANA...NE WYOMING...
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ATTN WFOS...BIS...BYZ...GGW...TFX...
ATTN RFCS...NCRFC...MBRFC...
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NESDIS IS CONTINUING TO ACCEPT APPEALS ON THE RETIREMENT OF THE SPENES
PRODUCT.  APPEALS CAN BE SUBMITTED BY EMAILING JOHN.SIMKO@NOAA.GOV
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EVENT...HVY RAIN THREAT
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...RECENT WV IMAGERY SHOWS NEGATIVELY TILTED
S/WV TROF QUICKLY BEGINNING TO EJECT NEWD ACROSS WY AND CENTRAL-SE MT
GENERATING LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. NUMEROUS STRONG
TSTORMS HAVE STARTED DVLPG ACROSS ERN MT OVER THE PAST 1-2 HRS AS A RESULT
OF THE INCRSG LIFT AND WEAKENING CAP. VWP AND RAOB DATA SHOW A STRONG
LOW LVL SERLY FLOW REGIME OVER THE NRN PLAINS THAT IS WRAPPING LOW LVL
MOISTURE NWWD TWDS WRN ND/NE MT. 00Z PW ANALYSIS DEPICTS THIS MOISTURE
PLUME WELL 1.2-1.35" PW VALUES ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND NE MT. EXPERIMENTAL
LAYERED PW PRODUCT DOES SHOW SOME MID-LVL (700-500MB LAYER) DRYNESS
THOUGH ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF ND/SD AND THIS IS ALSO EVIDENT IN 00Z
BIS RAOB. THIS MID-LVL DRYNESS MAY BE LIMITING ADVECTION OF DEEP LAYERED
MOISTURE FOR THE TIME BEING. EVEN SO...AMPLE MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE WITH
THE S/WV ITSELF TO CONSIDER THE THREAT FOR HVY RAINS FROM THESE STORMS.
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AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION
THREAT AREA SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED
BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10-15 MINUTES.
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SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 0130-0430Z...MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE FACTOR
IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...AS POTENT S/WV SWINGS NEWD ACROSS MT/WRN
DAKOTAS...EXPECT INCRSGLY WIDESPREAD CNVCTN GIVEN AMPLE UNTAPPED CAPE
VALUES...ESPECIALLY OVER WRN ND INTO FAR NE MT. MOISTURE AND DVLPG PRECIP
SHOULD WRAP BACK TWDS THE DEEPENING SFC LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER NE MT
POTENTIALLY CAUSING CELL TRAINING AS THE PRECIP BAND PIVOTS NWD ACROSS WRN
ND BUT REMAINS RELATIVELY STNRY OVER NERN MT. GIVEN PW VALUES ARE ANYWHERE
FROM 120-150% OF NORMAL ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA..RAINFALL RATES OF
UP TO 1-2"/HR ARE POSSIBLE FROM MOST OF THE STORMS OVER E MT/W ND. AS
MENTIONED...EXCEPT FOR PART OF NE MT  NR AND E OF GGW..STORMS SHOULD
OTHERWISE BE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE WHICH WILL HELP TO LIMIT RAINFALL TOTALS.
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....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP)....
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE
PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL
SSDPrecip@noaa.gov
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FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB:
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/
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FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB:
http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php
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LAT...LON 4958 10269 4958 10269 4942 10933 4467 10742 4544 10466
4752 10244
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NNNN


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