Satellite Precipitation Estimates (TXUS20 KWBC)
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
TXUS20 KNES 251429
SPENES
ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
TXZ000-
.
SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 05/25/15 1429Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-15/13 1415Z KUSSELSON
NOAA AMSU:0911Z 1053Z
BLENDED TPW PRODUCT THROUGH 13Z
.
LOCATION...TEXAS...
.
ATTN WFOS...FWD...CRP...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...
ATTN RFCS...WGRFC...
.
NESDIS IS CONTINUING TO ACCEPT APPEALS ON THE RETIREMENT OF THE SPENES
PRODUCT.  APPEALS CAN BE SUBMITTED BY EMAILING JOHN.SIMKO@NOAA.GOV
.
EVENT...1-2 STANDARD DEVIATION BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS APPROACHING 2 TO 3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE CLIMO PRECIP WATER...FOR INCREASED AREAL AND
AMOUNT RAINFALL WHERE IT IS NOT NEEDED...
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...DOMINANT MOISTURE PLUME ORIGINATING
OUT OF THE SW GULF OF MEXICO/S TEXAS/NE MEXICO AND FLOWING NORTH INTO
CENTRAL AND EASTERN TEXAS AND NW FROM  NE MEXICO INTO S CENTRAL AND
CENTRAL TEXAS.  SMALL CONTRIBUTION FROM PACIFIC MOISTURE SOUTH OF
BAJA THAT CAN BE ADDING MOISTURE IN MID LEVELS AFTER COMING OVER THE
MEXICAN MOUNTAINS AND THEN COMBINING WITH GULF/S TX/NE MEXICO MOISTURE
TO FLOW NORTH AND NW IN AN AREA THAT CAN NOT HANDLE ANYMORE RAINFALL.
AND IF THAT WAS NOT ENOUGH...VIGOROUS AND ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL VORT
PUSHING THROUGH SW AND WEST CENTRAL TEXAS WAS PUSHING EAST AND ALLOWING
STRONG FORCING TO ACT ON THAT INCREASINGLY HIGH MOISTURE...SO FAR ONLY
GETTING INTO THE MODERATE MOISTURE PLUME`S WEST EXTENT..BUT WAIT TILL
IT GETS FURTHER EAST INTO THE DEEPER MOISTURE CONTENT  OF CENTRAL TEXAS
AS THE 1.85" VALUES OF SOUTHERN TEXAS AS PER LATEST GPS AND 1.6" VALUES
IN S CENTRAL TEXAS CONTINUE TO TO FLOW NORTH AND INCREASE PW MOISTURE
IN THE SAY DALLAS AREA FROM THEIR CURRENT 1" OR  SLIGHTLY LESS VALUES.
WITH THE MOISTURE AND SHORT WAVE FORCING SET..FOLLOWING TWO SPEPARATE
AREAS THAT MAY TRY TO COMBINE OR MERGE IF WESTERN TEXAS ACTION CAN
SPEED UP.  WESTERN TEXAS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO ENCOUNTER DEEP
MOISTURE ADVECTION BUT ALSO BE PUSHED EAST PRETTY QUICKLY BY SHORT WAVE
MOVING ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS.    CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW FROM MORE SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN COMPLEX MAY ALSO FEED IN SOME ADDED MOISTURE TO WEST CENTRAL
COMPLEX  WITH WEST CENTRAL TEXAS DEVELOPING COMPLEX MERGED BAND OR BRIEF
TRAINING GIVING HIGHEST AMOUNTS CENTERED ON MITCHEL COUNTY RECENTLY FOR
1-2 INCH RATES PER HR BUT CONTINUING TO MOVE.  SOUTHERN SMALLER COMPLEX
AND A LITTLE CLOSER TO HIGHER MOISTURE PUSHING ACROSS EDWARD TO KERR TO
GILLESPIE COUNTY WITH SOME WEAK TRAINING CELLS AND MORE ORGANIZATION
IN THE PAST HR MEAN MORE CHANCE OF TRAINING FOR LONGEVITY OF HVY RAIN
BURST AND INCREASED FF.  CAN NOT BE UNDERSTATED THAT MOISTURE CONTINUES
TO ADVECT NW AND NORTH...SO THESE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES ARE MAKING THE
MOST OF DEEPENING MOISTURE THAT IS RETURNING FROM SOUTH TEXAS AND WILL
JUST ADD MOISTURE TO THE ATMOSPHERE WITH THEIR INITIAL HVY RAIN BURSTS.
.
AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION
THREAT AREA SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED
BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10-15 MINUTES.
.
SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1430-1730Z...MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FACTOR
IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK..WITH INCREASED MOISTURE FLOWING NORTH AND NW
THROUGH TEXAS AND SHORT WAVE ENERGY PUSHING EAST..BOTH ANOMALOUS
AND CLASHING WITH EACH OTHER ON ALREADY VERY WET SOIL...AREA OF
MOST CONCERN THIS PERIOD WILL BE TOM GREEN TO KENT ON WEST END TO
THROCKMORTON/SHACKELFORD TO RUNNELS ON EAST END AND WITH SOUTHERN COMPLEX
REAL TO GILLESPIE TO TRAVIS/WILLIAMSON COUNTY AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH
AREA BETWEEN THE TWO COMPLEXES FOR ANY FILLING IN OF CONVECTION AND ANY
POSSIBLE MERGERS...BUT THAT RATES AT LEAST FOR THIS PERIOD AS ONE IN FIVE
WITH MORE OF CHANCE THAT OUTFLOW FROM SOUTHERN COMPLEX WILL DIRECT MORE
EFFICIENT MOISTURE FLOW INTO NORTHERN COMPLEX.  ALSO SEE LATEST NCEP WPC
METWATCH AND EXCESSIVE DISCUSSIONS AND GRAPHICS FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.
.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP)....
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
.
FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE
PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL
SSDPrecip@noaa.gov
.
FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB:
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/
.
FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB:
http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php
.
LAT...LON 3338 9835 2942 9764 2828 9880 3259 10141
.
NNNN



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.