Satellite Precipitation Estimates (TXUS20 KWBC)
Issued by NWS

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000
TXUS20 KNES 182021
SPENES
ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
TXZ000-
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 09/18/14 2021Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-EAST:1945Z  JS
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LOCATION...W CENT TO CENT AND S CENT TEXAS...
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ATTN WFOS...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF...
ATTN RFCS...WGRFC...
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EVENT...SHORT TERM VERY LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN THREAT FOR NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS WITH MORE FOCUSED EVENT POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT FOR
PORTIONS OF W CENT TO S CENT/SW TX.
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SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 2015-0215Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR
IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...ANALYSIS/SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED CELLS
DEVELOPING FROM W CENT TO CENT TX IN REGION OF FAVORABLE INSTABILITY/CAPE
AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH WESTERN PART REINFORCED BY OUTFLOW/COLD
POOL FROM EARLIER MCS OVER NW TX. IN ADDITION, LONGER TERM ANIMATION
APPEARS TO SHOW WHAT`S LEFT OF A VERY LARGE REMNANT OUTFLOW WHICH
ORIGINATED FROM OK/KS COMPLEX NOW MOVING INTO N CENT TX WHICH WILL
LIKELY ALSO SHORTLY AID IN THE CONVERGENCE. AT THIS TIME, MOST OF
THE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN RATHER DISORGANIZED THOUGH THERE MAY BE SEVERAL
SMALLER COMPLEXES/LINE SEGMENTS WHICH FORM IN THIS REGION OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS AS CELLS/OUTFLOWS MERGE. MEAN FLOW OF 10KTS OR LESS AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY OVER 2" WITH A CONTINUED
MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE CONNECTION TO THE REMNANTS OF ODILE SUPPORT
RAIN RATES BRIEFLY IN THE 2-3"/HR RANGE WITH THE STRONGER EMBEDDED CELLS
ALONG WITH VERY ISOLATED TOTALS POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 3" IN A 1-2 HOUR TIME
FRAME DUE TO THE SLOW INDIVIDUAL CELL MOVEMENTS. WITH THE BULK OF THIS
RECENT DEVELOPMENT BEING DIURNALLY DRIVEN BELIEVE IT WILL LIKELY ONLY BE
A THREAT IN LOCALIZED TO ISOLATED SPOTS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH
GENERALLY MINIMAL ORGANIZATION. WIND FIELDS APPEAR TO FAVOR THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THIS AREA SHIFTING MORE TO THE SE WHILE THE WESTERN AREA S OF
THE EXISTING COLD POOL WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR REDEVELOPMENT IN THE MORE
UNSTABLE AIR TO THE S OF THE COLD POOL/OUTFLOW. THIS AREA OF W CENT TO
S CENT AND SW TX IS ALSO MORE LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT INTO THE
NIGHT AS CONFLUENT AND INCREASING S TO SE LOW LEVEL INFLOW FOCUSES MORE ON
THIS REGION WITH ADDED LIFT PROVIDED BY THE APPROACHING PERIPHERY OF THE
REMNANTS OF ODILE. HAVE DISCUSSED THIS SCENARIO WITH WPC AND THEY CONCUR
WITH THIS AREA BEING THE MORE SIGNIFICANT THREAT AREA OVERNIGHT. SEE THE
GRAPHIC ON THE WEB IN APPROX 10 MINUTES HIGHLIGHTING THE THREAT AREAS
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND INTO THE NIGHT.
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AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION
THREAT AREA SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED
BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10 MINUTES.
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....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP)....
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE
PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL
SSDPrecip@noaa.gov
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FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB:
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/
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FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB:
http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php
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LAT...LON 3277 10097 3248 9876 3130 9581 3004 9639 3032 9858
3117 10107 3185 10158
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