Soaring Guidance
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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000
UXUS97 KGJT 281359
SRGGJT

Soaring Forecast
National Weather Service Grand Junction, Colorado
0659 MST Sunday, December 28, 2014

This forecast is for Sunday, December 28, 2014:

If the trigger temperature of 32.2 F/0.1 C is reached...then
   Thermal Soaring Index....................... Poor
   Maximum rate of lift........................ 0 ft/min (0.0 m/s)
   Maximum height of thermals.................. 7036 ft MSL (2197 ft AGL)

Forecast maximum temperature................... 30.0 F/-1.6 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... None
Time of overdevelopment........................ None
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... Broken/overcast opaque middle
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 6159 ft MSL (1320 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Monday 12/29....... Poor

Wave Soaring Index............................. Not available

Remarks...

Sunrise/Sunset.................... 07:32:26 / 16:59:16 MST
Total possible sunshine........... 9 hr 26 min 49 sec (566 min 49 sec)
Altitude of sun at 12:15:49 MST... 27.70 degrees

Upper air data from rawinsonde observation taken on 12/28/2014 at 0500 MST

Freezing level.................. Entire airmass below 32 F / 0 C
Convective condensation level... 18200 ft MSL (13361 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 10736 ft MSL (5897 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... +15.8
K index......................... +0.4

Height  Temperature  Wind  Wind Spd  Lapse Rate  ConvectionT  Thermal  Lift Rate
ft MSL  deg C deg F   Dir   kt  m/s  C/km F/kft  deg C deg F   Index    fpm  m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000  -59.1 -74.4   285   32   16  -5.5  -3.0  106.4 223.4    60.6      M    M
 45000  -58.1 -72.6   295   48   25   7.8   4.3   83.2 181.7    50.9      M    M
 40000  -54.7 -66.5   295   64   33   2.0   1.1   64.0 147.1    42.2      M    M
 38000  -57.9 -72.2   295   74   38 -13.6  -7.5   50.4 122.8    34.3      M    M
 36000  -57.9 -72.2   305  101   52   5.9   3.2   41.8 107.2    29.3      M    M
 34000  -53.5 -64.3   300  109   56   3.8   2.1   39.7 103.5    28.7      M    M
 32000  -49.9 -57.8   300   92   47   6.2   3.4   36.6  97.8    27.2      M    M
 30000  -44.8 -48.6   300   96   49   8.5   4.7   34.5  94.0    26.4      M    M
 29000  -42.4 -44.3   300   96   49   8.2   4.5   33.7  92.7    26.2      M    M
 28000  -39.9 -39.8   300   95   49   7.8   4.3   33.2  91.7    26.1      M    M
 27000  -39.7 -39.5   300   94   48  -5.2  -2.9   29.7  85.5    23.8      M    M
 26000  -38.7 -37.7   295   77   40   6.1   3.4   27.3  81.1    22.2      M    M
 25000  -37.2 -35.0   290   61   31   1.4   0.8   25.5  77.9    21.0      M    M
 24000  -35.8 -32.4   290   55   28   5.1   2.8   23.6  74.5    19.7      M    M
 23000  -34.3 -29.7   295   49   25   9.9   5.4   21.9  71.5    18.6      M    M
 22000  -31.5 -24.7   295   46   24   9.1   5.0   21.7  71.0    18.6      M    M
 21000  -28.8 -19.8   300   44   23   8.6   4.7   21.5  70.7    18.7      M    M
 20000  -26.5 -15.7   300   41   21   7.8   4.3   20.9  69.5    18.3      M    M
 19500  -25.3 -13.5   300   39   20   7.8   4.3   20.5  68.9    18.1      M    M
 19000  -24.1 -11.4   295   38   19   7.8   4.3   20.1  68.2    17.9      M    M
 18500  -23.0  -9.4   290   36   19   7.6   4.2   19.8  67.7    17.8      M    M
 18000  -21.9  -7.4   290   35   18   7.6   4.2   19.4  66.9    17.5      M    M
 17500  -20.7  -5.3   290   34   17   7.7   4.2   19.0  66.3    17.3      M    M
 17000  -19.6  -3.3   290   33   17   7.6   4.2   18.7  65.7    17.1      M    M
 16500  -18.5  -1.3   290   34   18   5.8   3.2   18.3  65.0    16.8      M    M
 16000  -17.6   0.3   285   37   19   3.9   2.2   16.9  62.4    15.6      M    M
 15500  -17.0   1.4   280   39   20   4.0   2.2   15.9  60.6    14.8      M    M
 15000  -16.4   2.5   280   41   21   4.0   2.2   14.9  58.9    14.1      M    M
 14500  -15.9   3.4   285   40   20   3.9   2.2   13.9  57.1    13.2      M    M
 14000  -15.3   4.5   285   39   20   3.5   1.9   13.0  55.4    12.5      M    M
 13500  -15.5   4.1   285   36   19   1.8   1.0   11.1  52.0    10.9      M    M
 13000  -14.3   6.3   285   34   18   7.5   4.1   10.9  51.6    10.7      M    M
 12500  -13.1   8.4   280   32   16   6.1   3.3   10.6  51.1    10.4      M    M
 12000  -12.5   9.5   280   30   15   4.3   2.4    9.7  49.4     9.7      M    M
 11500  -11.9  10.6   280   29   15   4.2   2.3    8.8  47.8     8.8      M    M
 11000  -11.2  11.8   275   27   14   3.9   2.2    7.9  46.1     8.0      M    M
 10500  -10.6  12.9   275   26   13   0.6   0.3    7.0  44.6     7.3      M    M
 10250  -10.7  12.7   270   26   13  -1.1  -0.6    6.1  42.9     6.5      M    M
 10000  -11.1  12.0   270   25   13 -16.2  -8.9    4.9  40.9     5.4      M    M
  9750  -12.4   9.7   260   23   12  -6.6  -3.6    2.6  36.7     3.3      M    M
  9500  -11.8  10.8   260   20   11   8.7   4.8    2.5  36.5     3.2      M    M
  9250  -11.8  10.8   250   18    9  -3.5  -1.9    1.7  35.1     2.5      M    M
  9000  -12.0  10.4   245   16    8  -1.4  -0.8    0.8  33.4     1.6      M    M
  8750  -11.9  10.6   240   13    7   4.7   2.6    0.1  32.1     0.9      M    M
  8500  -11.3  11.7   235   10    5   9.2   5.0   -0.1  31.9     0.8      M    M
  8250  -10.7  12.7   225    8    4   8.0   4.4   -0.2  31.7     0.7      M    M
  8000  -10.1  13.8   210    5    3   8.3   4.5   -0.3  31.5     0.6      M    M
  7750   -9.5  14.9   180    7    4   8.3   4.6   -0.4  31.3     0.5      M    M
  7500   -8.9  16.0   165   10    5   7.7   4.2   -0.5  31.0     0.4      M    M
  7250   -8.3  17.1   160   14    7  10.0   5.5   -0.6  30.8     0.2      M    M
  7000   -7.7  18.1   155   17    9  -1.1  -0.6   -0.8  30.5     0.1      M    M
  6750   -8.2  17.2   155   18    9  -3.0  -1.7   -2.1  28.3    -1.2     93  0.5
  6500   -7.9  17.8   150   17    9   8.3   4.6   -2.4  27.6    -1.6     75  0.4
  6250   -7.6  18.3   150   17    9  -6.0  -3.3   -2.9  26.7    -2.1     60  0.3
  6000   -8.4  16.9   145   17    9  -6.3  -3.5   -4.5  23.9    -3.6     76  0.4
  5750   -8.3  17.1   145   15    8   4.1   2.2   -5.1  22.8    -4.2     66  0.3
  5500   -8.1  17.4   140   13    7   2.3   1.2   -5.7  21.8    -4.8     53  0.3
  5250   -7.9  17.8   130   10    5   2.6   1.5   -6.2  20.8    -5.3     39  0.2
  5000   -7.7  18.1   120    8    4   2.9   1.6   -6.7  19.9    -5.8     26  0.1

 * * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *

           12/28/2014 at 0800 MST          |       12/28/2014 at 1100 MST
                                           |
K index... +7.0  LI... +6.0                | K index... +3.5  LI... +5.0
CAPE... 0.0  CIN... M                      | CAPE... 0.0  CIN... M
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -56.7 -70.1  285  43 22  -0.2  -0.1 | -56.6 -69.9  285  38 19   0.7   0.4
 45000 -57.0 -70.6  290  61 31  -0.2  -0.1 | -55.6 -68.1  295  56 29   0.7   0.4
 40000 -56.2 -69.2  290  80 41   0.7   0.4 | -53.9 -65.0  290  81 42   1.1   0.6
 38000 -55.6 -68.1  295  89 46   2.0   1.1 | -53.3 -63.9  290  92 47   0.5   0.3
 36000 -54.5 -66.1  295 101 52   1.9   1.1 | -53.0 -63.4  290 102 53   0.5   0.3
 34000 -53.2 -63.8  300 115 59   3.3   1.8 | -52.7 -62.9  290 113 58   0.1   0.0
 32000 -49.4 -56.9  300 106 55   6.4   3.5 | -49.8 -57.6  290 110 57   5.7   3.1
 30000 -45.5 -49.9  295  98 50   6.5   3.5 | -46.4 -51.5  290 105 54   5.7   3.1
 29000 -43.6 -46.5  295  91 47   6.3   3.5 | -44.8 -48.6  290 101 52   5.3   2.9
 28000 -41.7 -43.1  295  84 43   6.3   3.5 | -43.2 -45.8  290  97 50   5.3   2.9
 27000 -39.8 -39.6  290  77 40   6.3   3.5 | -41.2 -42.2  295  91 47   5.3   2.9
 26000 -38.1 -36.6  290  73 37   5.0   2.8 | -39.5 -39.1  295  88 45   6.5   3.6
 25000 -36.6 -33.9  295  71 36   5.0   2.7 | -37.5 -35.5  295  87 45   6.5   3.6
 24000 -35.1 -31.2  295  69 35   5.0   2.8 | -35.6 -32.1  295  85 44   6.5   3.6
 23000 -33.4 -28.1  295  67 34   6.1   3.3 | -33.8 -28.8  300  82 42   4.8   2.6
 22000 -31.6 -24.9  290  64 33   6.1   3.3 | -32.4 -26.3  300  75 39   4.8   2.6
 21000 -29.8 -21.6  290  62 32   6.1   3.3 | -30.9 -23.6  300  69 35   4.7   2.6
 20000 -28.0 -18.4  290  58 30   6.2   3.4 | -29.2 -20.6  300  63 32   6.5   3.6
 19500 -27.0 -16.6  290  56 29   6.2   3.4 | -28.2 -18.8  300  60 31   6.5   3.6
 19000 -26.1 -15.0  290  54 28   6.2   3.4 | -27.2 -17.0  295  58 30   6.5   3.6
 18500 -25.2 -13.4  290  51 26   6.3   3.4 | -26.2 -15.2  295  55 28   6.5   3.5
 18000 -24.3 -11.7  290  49 25   7.0   3.8 | -25.2 -13.4  295  53 27   8.2   4.5
 17500 -23.2  -9.8  290  47 24   7.1   3.9 | -23.9 -11.0  295  51 26   8.6   4.7
 17000 -22.2  -8.0  290  46 24   7.3   4.0 | -22.6  -8.7  295  49 25   7.4   4.0
 16500 -21.1  -6.0  295  44 23   7.4   4.1 | -21.9  -7.4  295  46 24   3.8   2.1
 16000 -20.0  -4.0  295  43 22   7.5   4.1 | -21.3  -6.3  295  44 22   3.9   2.1
 15500 -18.4  -1.1  295  41 21   6.7   3.7 | -20.6  -5.1  295  40 21   5.7   3.1
 15000 -17.4   0.7  295  39 20   6.5   3.6 | -19.8  -3.6  295  37 19   5.4   3.0
 14500 -16.5   2.3  295  38 20   6.0   3.3 | -18.9  -2.0  290  34 18   8.2   4.5
 14000 -15.6   3.9  295  37 19   5.8   3.2 | -17.6   0.3  290  33 17   8.5   4.6
 13500 -14.9   5.2  295  36 19   4.2   2.3 | -16.5   2.3  290  31 16   7.1   3.9
 13000 -14.3   6.3  290  35 18   4.2   2.3 | -15.0   5.0  290  30 16   6.7   3.7
 12500 -13.7   7.3  290  34 18   4.2   2.3 | -14.1   6.6  290  29 15   5.2   2.8
 12000 -13.0   8.6  285  33 17   4.0   2.2 | -13.3   8.1  285  28 14   5.0   2.7
 11500 -12.6   9.3  280  31 16   2.2   1.2 | -12.9   8.8  280  26 13   1.6   0.9
 11000 -12.2  10.0  275  28 15   2.1   1.2 | -12.6   9.3  275  25 13   2.0   1.1
 10500 -12.0  10.4  270  25 13   1.5   0.8 | -12.2  10.0  270  23 12   2.6   1.4
 10250 -11.9  10.6  265  23 12   1.2   0.7 | -12.0  10.4  265  22 11   2.6   1.4
 10000 -11.8  10.8  260  22 11   2.5   1.3 | -11.8  10.8  260  22 11   2.6   1.4
  9750 -11.5  11.3  260  21 11   5.3   2.9 | -11.6  11.1  260  21 11   5.3   2.9
  9500 -11.0  12.2  255  20 10   6.1   3.4 | -11.0  12.2  255  20 10   7.2   4.0
  9250 -10.6  12.9  255  19 10   5.6   3.1 | -10.5  13.1  255  19 10   6.8   3.7
  9000 -10.2  13.6  250  18  9   2.7   1.5 | -10.1  13.8  250  18  9   4.0   2.2
  8750 -10.1  13.8  250  16  8   1.9   1.0 |  -9.9  14.2  250  17  9   2.9   1.6
  8500  -9.9  14.2  245  15  8   3.3   1.8 |  -9.6  14.7  245  16  8   4.2   2.3
  8250  -9.6  14.7  240  13  7   3.0   1.6 |  -9.3  15.3  245  14  7   3.9   2.1
  8000  -9.4  15.1  230  11  6   3.1   1.7 |  -9.0  15.8  240  13  7   3.9   2.1
  7750  -9.2  15.4  220  10  5   3.7   2.0 |  -8.7  16.3  235  12  6   5.1   2.8
  7500  -8.8  16.2  210   9  5   4.6   2.5 |  -8.3  17.1  225  12  6   5.9   3.2
  7250  -8.5  16.7  195  10  5   5.1   2.8 |  -7.9  17.8  215  11  6   4.0   2.2
  7000  -8.1  17.4  190  10  5   5.5   3.0 |  -7.6  18.3  205  11  5   3.5   1.9
  6750  -7.7  18.1  185  11  6   4.9   2.7 |  -7.4  18.7  200  10  5   2.3   1.2
  6500  -7.4  18.7  180  12  6   3.0   1.6 |  -7.2  19.0  190  10  5   5.8   3.2
  6250  -7.2  19.0  175  11  6   2.3   1.2 |  -6.6  20.1  190   9  5   9.8   5.4
  6000  -7.1  19.2  170  11  6   1.7   0.9 |  -5.9  21.4  190   8  4   8.7   4.8
  5750  -7.0  19.4  165   9  5   2.1   1.2 |  -5.3  22.5  190   8  4   8.6   4.7
  5500  -6.8  19.8  165   8  4   3.9   2.1 |  -4.7  23.5  190   7  4   8.2   4.5
  5250  -6.5  20.3  165   7  3   2.8   1.5 |  -4.1  24.6  190   7  4   8.5   4.7
  5000     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M

           12/28/2014 at 1400 MST          |       12/28/2014 at 1700 MST
                                           |
K index... +4.4  LI... +4.3                | K index... +5.0  LI... +3.9
CAPE... 0.0  CIN... -0.8                   | CAPE... +0.8  CIN... -6.2
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -56.3 -69.3  285  31 16   0.9   0.5 | -55.9 -68.6  290  23 12   2.3   1.3
 45000 -55.0 -67.0  295  46 24   0.9   0.5 | -52.3 -62.1  275  28 14   2.3   1.3
 40000 -51.9 -61.4  295  76 39   2.1   1.1 | -51.3 -60.3  295  63 32   0.5   0.3
 38000 -50.9 -59.6  295  87 45  -0.2  -0.1 | -51.0 -59.8  295  78 40   0.1   0.0
 36000 -51.1 -60.0  290  96 50  -0.2  -0.1 | -51.0 -59.8  290  88 45   0.1   0.0
 34000 -51.2 -60.2  285 106 55  -0.3  -0.2 | -50.9 -59.6  285  99 51  -0.0  -0.0
 32000 -50.0 -58.0  290 105 54   2.5   1.4 | -49.8 -57.6  285  96 50   2.2   1.2
 30000 -48.5 -55.3  290 101 52   2.2   1.2 | -48.5 -55.3  290  91 47   1.9   1.0
 29000 -47.0 -52.6  290  99 51   6.8   3.7 | -46.9 -52.4  290  90 46   6.5   3.6
 28000 -44.9 -48.8  290  97 50   6.8   3.7 | -44.9 -48.8  290  90 46   6.6   3.6
 27000 -42.9 -45.2  295  95 49   6.8   3.7 | -43.0 -45.4  290  90 46   6.5   3.6
 26000 -40.3 -40.5  295  92 47   7.1   3.9 | -40.9 -41.6  290  89 46   8.1   4.4
 25000 -38.2 -36.8  295  91 47   7.1   3.9 | -38.5 -37.3  290  89 46   7.9   4.3
 24000 -36.1 -33.0  295  89 46   7.1   3.9 | -36.1 -33.0  290  89 46   7.9   4.3
 23000 -34.2 -29.6  295  87 45   5.0   2.8 | -33.9 -29.0  290  89 46   5.5   3.0
 22000 -32.6 -26.7  295  83 43   5.1   2.8 | -32.2 -26.0  290  87 45   5.5   3.0
 21000 -31.1 -24.0  290  80 41   5.1   2.8 | -30.6 -23.1  290  85 44   5.5   3.0
 20000 -29.4 -20.9  290  74 38   5.9   3.3 | -29.1 -20.4  290  80 41   4.0   2.2
 19500 -28.5 -19.3  290  71 37   5.9   3.3 | -28.5 -19.3  290  77 39   4.0   2.2
 19000 -27.6 -17.7  290  68 35   5.9   3.3 | -27.9 -18.2  295  73 38   4.0   2.2
 18500 -26.7 -16.1  290  65 33   5.9   3.3 | -27.3 -17.1  295  69 36   4.1   2.2
 18000 -25.8 -14.4  290  62 32   6.4   3.5 | -26.7 -16.1  295  65 34   4.6   2.5
 17500 -24.8 -12.6  290  59 31   6.6   3.6 | -25.9 -14.6  295  62 32   5.9   3.2
 17000 -23.9 -11.0  290  57 29   6.3   3.4 | -25.0 -13.0  295  58 30   6.3   3.4
 16500 -23.1  -9.6  290  54 28   4.8   2.6 | -24.3 -11.7  295  55 28   2.5   1.4
 16000 -22.4  -8.3  290  51 26   4.9   2.7 | -23.7 -10.7  290  49 25   3.3   1.8
 15500 -21.6  -6.9  290  47 24   5.7   3.1 | -23.1  -9.6  290  46 24   4.7   2.6
 15000 -20.8  -5.4  290  43 22   5.6   3.0 | -22.4  -8.3  290  44 23   4.5   2.5
 14500 -19.9  -3.8  285  40 20   6.6   3.6 | -21.4  -6.5  290  42 21   8.6   4.7
 14000 -18.9  -2.0  285  37 19   6.7   3.7 | -20.2  -4.4  290  40 21   8.2   4.5
 13500 -17.9  -0.2  285  35 18   7.8   4.3 | -19.0  -2.2  290  38 20   8.6   4.7
 13000 -16.1   3.0  285  32 17   8.1   4.4 | -17.7   0.1  285  36 19   8.6   4.7
 12500 -15.0   5.0  285  31 16   6.8   3.7 | -16.5   2.3  285  35 18   8.6   4.7
 12000 -14.0   6.8  285  30 15   6.8   3.7 | -15.2   4.6  280  33 17   8.8   4.8
 11500 -13.2   8.2  280  29 15   4.9   2.7 | -14.1   6.6  280  32 16   6.8   3.7
 11000 -12.4   9.7  280  28 14   4.7   2.6 | -13.0   8.6  280  31 16   7.0   3.9
 10500 -11.9  10.6  275  27 14   2.9   1.6 | -12.2  10.0  275  29 15   4.3   2.4
 10250 -11.7  10.9  270  26 13   2.9   1.6 | -11.8  10.8  275  28 14   4.2   2.3
 10000 -11.4  11.5  270  25 13   3.5   1.9 | -11.5  11.3  270  27 14   5.9   3.2
  9750 -11.1  12.0  265  25 13   5.5   3.0 | -11.0  12.2  270  27 14   7.0   3.8
  9500 -10.7  12.7  260  24 12   6.2   3.4 | -10.5  13.1  265  25 13   6.1   3.4
  9250 -10.2  13.6  260  24 12   6.0   3.3 | -10.0  14.0  260  24 12   6.0   3.3
  9000  -9.7  14.5  255  23 12   6.3   3.4 |  -9.5  14.9  260  23 12   7.3   4.0
  8750  -9.3  15.3  255  22 11   5.6   3.1 |  -8.9  16.0  255  22 11   7.7   4.2
  8500  -8.9  16.0  250  20 10   5.2   2.9 |  -8.4  16.9  250  20 10   6.7   3.7
  8250  -8.5  16.7  245  18  9   4.7   2.6 |  -8.0  17.6  245  19 10   6.6   3.6
  8000  -8.3  17.1  245  16  8   3.5   1.9 |  -7.6  18.3  245  17  9   4.6   2.5
  7750  -8.0  17.6  240  13  7   3.3   1.8 |  -7.3  18.9  240  15  8   3.5   1.9
  7500  -7.8  18.0  240  10  5   3.4   1.9 |  -7.0  19.4  240  13  7   3.7   2.0
  7250  -7.5  18.5  235   8  4   4.8   2.6 |  -6.8  19.8  235  10  5   3.5   1.9
  7000  -7.1  19.2  230   7  3   5.8   3.2 |  -6.5  20.3  230   8  4   3.3   1.8
  6750  -6.7  19.9  230   5  3   6.6   3.6 |  -6.3  20.7  225   6  3   4.0   2.2
  6500  -6.1  21.0  230   5  3   9.2   5.1 |  -6.0  21.2  215   5  2   5.1   2.8
  6250  -5.4  22.3  230   5  2  10.5   5.8 |  -5.6  21.9  215   4  2   5.8   3.2
  6000  -4.6  23.7  235   5  2  10.3   5.6 |  -5.1  22.8  220   3  1   6.5   3.5
  5750  -3.9  25.0  235   4  2   9.0   4.9 |  -4.6  23.7  235   2  1   5.4   3.0
  5500  -3.3  26.1  235   4  2   7.6   4.1 |  -4.4  24.1  255   2  1   1.6   0.9
  5250  -2.7  27.1  240   4  2   8.2   4.5 |  -4.4  24.1  255   1  1  -1.1  -0.6
  5000     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M
________________________________________________________________________________

This product is issued twice per day, once by approximately 0630 MST/0730 MDT
(1330 UTC) and again by approximately 1830 MST/1930 MDT (0130 UTC).  It is not
continuously monitored nor updated after its initial issuance.

The information contained herein is based on rawinsonde observation and/or
numerical weather prediction model data taken at Walker Field in Grand
Junction, Colorado at

                   North Latitude:  39 deg 07 min 0.000 sec
                   West Longitude: 108 deg 32 min 0.000 sec
                   Elevation: 4839 feet (1475 meters)

and may not be representative of other areas along the Front Range of the
Colorado Rocky Mountains.  Note that some elevations in numerical weather
prediction models differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to
data which appear to be below ground.  Erroneous data such as these should
not be used.

The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice.  Comments and suggestions are welcome and should
be directed to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this
page.  To expedite a response to comments, be sure to mention your interest in
the soaring forecast.

DEFINITIONS:

CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
     energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
     area on a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  Larger
     values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
     stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms.  Values around or
     greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
     convective activity develop.

CIN (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
     needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
     a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  The more negative
     this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection.  This
     inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
     lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)

Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
     if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
     just becomes saturated.  It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
     produced by surface heating only.

Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
     the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level.  It can be considered a
     "trigger temperature" for that level.

Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.

Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
     mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists.  The location and
     existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
     waves.

K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
     between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
     of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
     of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface.  Larger
     positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
     thunderstorm development.  One interpretation of K index values regarding
     soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
     and is reproduced in the following table:

          below -10    no or weak thermals
           -10 to 5    dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
            5 to 15    good soaring conditions
           15 to 20    good soaring conditions with occasional showers
           20 to 30    excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
                       probability of showers and thunderstorms
           above 30    more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms

Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
     inversions.

Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
     maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.

Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
     level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
     an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
     condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
     level.  The parcel`s initial temperature is the forecast maximum
     temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
     feet of the airmass.  Negative values are indicative of instability with
     positive values showing stable conditions.

Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals.  It is
     computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
     level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
     Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
     are applied to these calculations.

Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
     forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.

Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals.  It
     is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
     height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
     between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
     above the ground.  After this computation, further empirical adjustments
     are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
     middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment.

Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
     or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds.  Broken means that
     between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
     conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
     Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
     some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
     that little sunlight is reaching the ground.

Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
     1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
     2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind speed no longer increases with height

PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
     on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
     sea level).  Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.

Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
                 and the time of overdevelopment.

Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
     temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
     through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level.  Negative values
     are indicative of thermal lift.

Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
     computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
     cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:

                 Maximum rate of lift        Adjective Rating
                      >= 800 fpm                 Excellent
                 >= 400 and < 800 fpm              Good
                 >= 200 and < 400 fpm              Fair
                       < 200 fpm                   Poor

Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
     which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
     1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
     2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
     3. initiation of widespread precipitation

Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
     reach the trigger temperature.

Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
     feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.

Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
     attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
     soaring into a single index number.  Objective points are assigned to
     these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
     stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
     the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
     movements.

042613


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