Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 292027
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292027
INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-292200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1571
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0327 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF FAR SERN MO...SERN IL...SRN/ERN
IND...AND WRN KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 292027Z - 292200Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STRONG/GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG A COLD FRONT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. WW ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY DUE TO THE MARGINAL NATURE OF THE
THREAT.

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED OVER THE
PAST HOUR OR SO ALONG A COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE
REGION...POSSIBLY AIDED BY A CONVECTIVELY-INDUCED VORTICITY MAXIMUM
FROM EARLIER THUNDERSTORMS OVER IA/MO. WHILE NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG
ATTM...THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING INTO A QUITE UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPE OF 2000-4000 J/KG OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. UNIDIRECTIONAL NWLY FLOW ALOFT IS PRESENT ACROSS THE
MCD AREA...WITH THE KVWX VWP SAMPLING WINDS OF 20-25 KT BETWEEN 3-6
KM AGL. ANY SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS ALONG THE FRONT MAY BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG/GUSTY WINDS THROUGH CONVECTIVE DOWNDRAFT PROCESSES
GIVEN STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. HOWEVER...WEAK BULK SHEAR VALUES COULD LIMIT A MORE
ORGANIZED WIND THREAT...AND MOST CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE
QUICKLY WEAKENS THE ONGOING CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

..GLEASON/GOSS.. 07/29/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...

LAT...LON   37698897 38108820 38778749 39108647 39748577 40098540
            40068488 39468491 38178566 37698626 37108745 36828901
            37328981 37698897



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