Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 310034
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 310034
SDZ000-310200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1451
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0734 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 310034Z - 310200Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A PAIR OF SUPERCELLS OVER N-CNTRL SD WILL POSE A RISK FOR
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS /SOME POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT/ OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WW ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...A PAIR OF RIGHT-MOVING SUPERCELLS HAVE FORMED OVER THE
PAST 1-2 HOURS IN N-CNTRL SD...POSSIBLY IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK
LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER. THESE THUNDERSTORMS
QUICKLY STRENGTHENED SINCE 2330Z...AND THE DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS SHOULD
REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE-LEVEL INTENSITIES IN THE SHORT TERM. A
MEASURED 68 MPH GUST OCCURRED WITH ONE OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS AT
KMBG AT 2348Z. 00Z SOUNDING FROM RAPID CITY SD SHOWS STEEP LOW- AND
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS WRN SD...WHICH NOSE INTO PORTIONS OF
CNTRL SD PER 00Z RAP MESOANALYSIS. THESE STEEP LAPSE RATES COMBINED
WITH SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND A STRONGLY
VEERING/STRENGTHENING WIND PROFILE WITH HEIGHT PER KUDX VWP WILL
SUPPORT LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH THESE SUPERCELLS AS THEY
MOVE SWD WITH TIME ACROSS CNTRL SD. IT REMAINS UNCLEAR HOW LONG
THESE SUPERCELLS WILL BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN THEIR INTENSITY AS THEY
MOVE SWD TOWARDS ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS S-CNTRL SD.

..GLEASON/EDWARDS.. 07/31/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...

LAT...LON   45220102 45740074 45769980 45389933 44599908 44019931
            43879959 43770064 44260100 45220102



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