Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 261759
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261758
MDZ000-WVZ000-PAZ000-VAZ000-KYZ000-262000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1736
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1258 PM CDT MON SEP 26 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SWRN PA SWD TO ERN KY/WRN VA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 261758Z - 262000Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED/LOW-END SEVERE RISK EVOLVING THIS AFTERNOON WILL
LIKELY NOT REQUIRE WW ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS/UPPER OH VALLEY AREA SHOWS MODEST INSTABILITY /AROUND
500 J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE/ AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT...WITH
ADDITIONAL HEATING THROUGH BROKEN CLOUD COVER TO ALLOW FOR
LIMITED/CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION.  AS A RESULT OF THE SUFFICIENT
THERMODYNAMICS...THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING FRONT -- ESSENTIALLY ALONG THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIANS.

AS THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION AT MID LEVELS CROSSES THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...AN ENHANCED BELT OF WLY FLOW ON THE SRN FRINGE OF THE LOW
/ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY AREA/ IS INDICATED.  THIS BELT OF
ENHANCED/CYCLONIC FLOW IS CONTRIBUTING TO SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR
ORGANIZED STORMS AS FAR S AS ROUGHLY THE KY/TN AND VA/NC BORDER
AREA.  THE ZONE OF GREATEST OVERLAP OF AMPLE CAPE AND SUFFICIENT
SHEAR APPEARS TO BE CENTERED OVER WV...WHERE THE STRONGEST STORMS
ARE ONGOING ATTM.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD EWD TOWARD WRN
VA...THOUGH AN INCREASINGLY STABLE AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE E OF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.  THEREFORE...WITH ANY RISK FOR LOCALLY
GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS /AND PERHAPS HAIL/ BOTH MARGINAL...AND CONFINED
BOTH SPATIALLY AND TEMPORALLY...THE NEED WW ISSUANCE APPEARS LOW.

..GOSS/HART.. 09/26/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...MRX...JKL...

LAT...LON   40127983 39837899 39107912 37477970 37008081 36788243
            36888331 37798279 39238141 40127983




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