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000
AXNT20 KNHC 051136
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
705 AM EST MON DEC 5 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning...The cold front is currently in the
central Atlantic through 32N35W along 26N47W to 23N60W with
southwest gale force winds north of 30N east of the front to
35W. These winds will diminish later this morning at 05/1800
UTC. Please see the High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 11N15W to 8N19W where it transitions to the ITCZ
and continues along 4N32W to 6N43W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is within 60 nm of a line from 5N22W
to 6N30W and from 5N-9N between 35W-42W. Clusters of scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection are within 60 nm of a
line from 6N11W to 4N21W and from 4N-7N between 30W-35W.
Clusters of scattered moderate convection are north of 2N to the
coast of southwest Africa east of 3W to the Prime Meridian.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A broad upper ridge dominates the Gulf again this morning
anchored in the Caribbean giving the Gulf southwest flow aloft.
A deep layered trough is moving into the central CONUS and
extends south over most of Mexico which is further amplifying
the upper ridge as it shifts eastward. A quasi-stationary front
extends from over the southeast CONUS over Panama City, Florida
along 27N90W to a deepening 1007 mb low near 27N96W with a cold
front extending south along 24N95W to the coast of Mexico
between Tuxpan and near Veracruz. Scattered to numerous showers
and isolated thunderstorms are north of 27N to over Louisiana
and Texas between 92W-96W. Isolated showers dot the remainder of
the area west of 95W. A shortwave upper trough is in the
southeast Gulf along 84W south of 26N to over west Cuba
generating isolated showers and thunderstorms south 25N to over
west Cuba between 82W-86W. The cold front will move across the
Gulf today and Tuesday with fresh to strong winds behind it.
These winds will subside Tuesday. A stronger cold front will
move into the northwest Gulf Wednesday night followed by strong
to gale force winds through the end of the week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper ridge is anchored over Nicaragua dominating the
Caribbean again this morning. A shortwave upper trough is moving
through the far northwest Caribbean along 84W north of 19N to
across west Cuba generating scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms within 75 nm of a line from 16N83W to over west
Cuba near 22N84W. A monsoonal surface trough extends across the
southwest Caribbean from 10N75W to 11N82W with scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms within 30/45 nm of a line from 14N82W
along 11N79W to Colombia near 10N75W. This is leaving the
remainder of the Caribbean with mostly clear skies this morning.
Surface ridge over the west Atlantic will support fresh to
locally strong trade winds near the coast of Colombia and
northwest Venezuela through Thursday morning. Similar winds are
expected in the western Caribbean this evening and tonight.

...HISPANIOLA...

Skies are mostly clear across the island this morning. Some
isolated showers are possible over the far east Dominican
Republic due to the surface trough that ends in the Mona Passage.
Lingering moisture and easterly trade winds could produce
afternoon or evening isolated showers and thunderstorms. This
activity could continue through tonight as the central Atlantic
front will drape just north of the island.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The upper ridge over the Caribbean extends over the west into
the central Atlantic. The surface ridge covers the west Atlantic
anchored by a 1021 mb high near 32N72W. An upper trough over the
central Atlantic is supporting a cold front that extends through
32N35W along 26N47W to 23N60W where it dissipates along 22N69W
to the Bahama Islands near 23N76W. Scattered showers and
possible isolated thunderstorms are within 120/150 nm east of
the front east of 50W. A weak surface trough is south of the
front extending from 24N52W along 21N60W to the Mona Passage
near 19N68W. A surface ridge covers the eastern Atlantic north
of 15N east of 40W anchored by a 1019 mb high near 27N20W. A
surface trough is southwest of the surface ridge extending from
16N47W along 12N48W to 8N48W. The central Atlantic cold front
will reach from 32N32W along 23N46W to 21N71W by tonight and
into the east Atlantic Tuesday night. A new cold front will move
into the west Atlantic Tuesday night reaching from Bermuda to
south Florida Wednesday night.

For additional information please
visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
PAW



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